Chainalysis Chief Economist: How do you understand the crypto market?
Source: collated from Twitter, Hackernoon
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比特币的未来是所有人关心的话题，历史数据常常能给人以启示。作为加密领域的「Palantir」，区块链分析公司 Chainalysis 自 2014 年创立以来就开始为包括美国联邦调查局、国税局和特勤局在内的 50 多个国家的政府机构、公司提供服务。此前，
Chainalysis 曾发布关于加密市场资金转移、市场结构和加密资产相关性等主题报告，从宏观角度对加密市场作出预判。
Chainalysis chief economist Philip Gradwell recently tweeted that bitcoin prices have been volatile for nearly a month, and to understand the possible bottom of those fluctuations, he analyzed the prices that have attracted different types of investors in the past, and that if they hit these levels again, the market could see new changes.
Can be seen from the above, the different levels of digital's buying of the currency cost level of each are not identical, to enter the earlier cost is lower, which in the past three months (since November last year) admission of whale (each bought at least 1000 gold COINS, a total of 1.7 million) average cost around $35000, in the price level of willingness to buy, may be set for the currency price of the lower limit of at least $35000.
Last November, the then Whale held about 1 million Bitcoins at an average cost of about $14,800. Today, that number has more than doubled. This data may give us a clue: As more traditional institutions and public companies continue to participate in Bitcoin, market expectations for the price of Bitcoin will continue to rise.
Hackernoon recently interviewed Philip Gradwell for his report on the future of Bitcoin in 2021. Here is an excerpt from his views on the current crypto market.
1. Where do you think bitcoin will go in 2021?
If history has taught me anything, it is that looking ahead to the coming year is very difficult. In the short term, I think cryptocurrency prices will fluctuate as liquidity increases, because if the rally continues, people will look to move assets and will sell when non-Bitcoin assets reach high prices. But if the market continues to see good news and more companies like Tesla or MicroStrategy buy bitcoin, the demand could far outpace short-term sellers. If that happens, the price of bitcoin could break records.
In the medium term, the arrival of new buyers will drive price volatility. They are now a force in the market, holding 2.7 million bitcoins in less than a month, almost the peak of 2017. Within a month of buying bitcoin, they have made returns of 25 percent or more and are now trading as much online as they did in late 2017. Historically, this has put pressure on prices, unless demand is very strong.
In the long term, I expect demand for cryptocurrencies, especially bitcoin, to remain strong. Demand for bitcoin is still there due to the epidemic and the impact of expansionary monetary policy. Bitcoin can act as an asset hedge against inflation. The effects of the outbreak are likely to be felt for years to come, so bitcoin is likely to do well.
The key question is whether people will start selling bitcoin as the economic recovery and inflation fears fail to materialize. This is possible, unless there is a new use case for Bitcoin, such as Bitcoin being the optimal asset for the Defi project configuration.
This is one of Bitcoin's key value propositions -- gold doesn't open up new use cases, but because Bitcoin is in a rapidly growing industry, Bitcoin holders can benefit from innovation. As a result, Bitcoin's prospects in 2021 depend on the broader economic environment, and beyond 2021, its prospects depend on innovation in digital assets.
2. "Shanzhai Season" has already happened, but it's not that dramatic?
Assets outside of bitcoin have performed strongly, and their correlation with the price of the currency has weakened. The reason is new scenarios including Bitcoin, Ethereum and USDT. Bitcoin and Tether are increasingly being used as digital stores of value, with the former offering exposure to price fluctuations and the latter avoiding them.
On the other hand, Ethereum is being actively used for scenarios like DEFI, rather than being passively invested. More than in the past, the success of non-Bitcoin assets is due to their use cases.
Are Hodlers getting carried away? Is the hype justified?
HODLers are always getting carried away. The price of Bitcoin is behaving differently today than it did in the past. The biggest difference is the entry of institutional investors, especially in March last year when Bitcoin went down with the financial markets and investors saw this as an opportunity to buy more Bitcoins. With fewer bitcoins available for new buyers, new entrants must pay a higher price.
Investors have bought 3.1 million bitcoins since 2017, half of them since mid-March last year
3. What are the factors that people don't pay enough attention to?
Cryptocurrencies are maturing as an asset, and they are driven by more complex factors than just speculation.
The thing that has surprised me most is that the crypto market microstructure has proved to be very resilient. We've had platform outages and withdrawals on one platform due to enforcement actions, but they haven't had much impact on the overall market functioning. This means there are fewer significant risks to the crypto industry and it is easier for new investors to enter.
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