Original Title: "Rainy and Clear, Green Water Pool Full | WTR 12.18"

Original Source: WTR Research Institute

This Week Review

From December 11th to December 18th this week, the highest price of Bingtang Orange was around $43884, and the lowest was close to $40222, with a fluctuation range of about 8.91%.

Observing the chip distribution chart, there is a large amount of chip transactions around 41871, which will provide certain support or pressure.

• Analysis:

1. 39000-43000, approximately 1.45 million pieces.

2. 34000~38000 is approximately 1.53 million pieces;

• The probability of not breaking below 36,000-38,000 in the short term is 80%.

• The probability of not breaking through 45000~47000 in the short term is 57%.

Important News

Economic News

1. William Williams, a member of the Federal Reserve, spoke out against Powell's comments on interest rate cuts, saying that it is too early to consider a rate cut in March. His rebuttal was ineffective.

2. Due to the potential interest rate cut, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond fell below 4% from above 5% at the end of October.

3. The US dollar index once fell below 102 to 101.76. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in February next year is 16.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut in March is 64.7%. The probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 11.9%.

4. Today, the scale of the Federal Reserve's fixed-rate reverse repurchase agreement tool (PPR) has decreased to $769.34 billion, compared to $837.003 billion the previous day, with approximately $76 billion flowing into the "risk market". It is expected that the PPR will decrease to 0 by next year's interest rate cut, and funds are shifting away from the Federal Reserve.

5. Due to the potential impact of declining interest rates, the yields on 10-year and 30-year US Treasury bonds have fallen from above 5% at the end of October to around 4%, with the 10-year yield falling below 4% to 3.9%.

6. Interest rate futures pricing. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 150 basis points a total of 6 times in 2024. The European Central Bank is betting on a 154 basis point rate cut. The two mainstream central banks are turning on the tap and injecting liquidity into the market next year.

Encryption Ecology News

1. Payment giant PayPal has launched the USD stablecoin PYUSD, with a total issuance of 217.3 million coins, 4529 on-chain addresses, and 21769 on-chain transactions.

2. Sotheby's auctioned the "Inscription" created using the BTC blockchain Ordinals protocol for the first time, with a transaction price of approximately $450,000, five times the highest estimate.

3. Preqin's global report shows that trend-tracking and niche hedge funds that trade cryptocurrencies and insurance-related assets attracted the majority of new investor funds in the first three quarters of 2023, with net inflows reaching $13.1 billion.

4. The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) proposed to modify the standard in its consultation paper, allowing stablecoins to be considered as lower-risk than unsecured cryptocurrencies.

5. The Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) in its first cryptocurrency accounting rule stated that cryptocurrency companies and any other companies holding BTC or ETH must record their holdings at fair value to capture highs and lows, with changes in fair value being included in net income.

6. Former PayPal President David Marcus said that the new fair value accounting rules for cryptocurrencies in the United States "are a big deal," which eliminates a major obstacle for companies holding BTC on their balance sheets.

7. Jianan Yunzhi completed the first round of preferred stock financing of $125 million, raising $25 million.

8. According to a report by JPMorgan, by 2024, the performance of ETH may surpass BTC and other cryptocurrencies, regaining market share in the cryptocurrency ecosystem.

Long-term Insights: Used to observe our long-term situation; Bull market/Bear market/Structural changes/Neutral state

Mid-term exploration: Used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face.

Short-term observation: Used to analyze the short-term market conditions; as well as the possibility of certain directions and events occurring under certain circumstances.

Long-term Insight

• Implied volatility of options

• New addresses and active addresses

• Net position of Bingtang Orange Exchange

• High-weight selling pressure

• Global purchasing power status

• Net position of stablecoin exchange

• Off-chain exchange data

Derivative Rating: Risk factor is in the neutral zone, derivative risk is moderate.

(Derivative Risk Factor as shown in the figure below)

Consistent with last week's expectations, there was no sustained large-scale long position liquidation in the short term. In terms of risk coefficient, the risk coefficient for this week has entered the neutral zone, which is basically consistent with last week's expectations and tends to be a small-scale derivative clearing.

(The following chart shows the ratio of option intention to transaction)

The trading volume of options and the proportion of put options have both increased significantly this week, indicating a high expectation for bearish protection.

(Derivative trading volume in the figure below)

Over the past week, the trading volume and activity level in the derivatives market have been low, and the trading volume in derivatives has returned to a low level. It may be entering a period of brewing market changes again.

(The implied volatility of options in the following figure)

The implied volatility of options has not changed much.

Emotional State Rating: Slightly FOMO

(Profit and loss transfer amount in the following figure)

The current short-term holder cost has reached 34K. Last week's small correction led to the sale of some loss-making chips. This week, the focus is still on the transfer of loss-making chips.

(新增地址和活跃地址)

The number of new and active addresses has both fallen to a low level.

Spot and selling pressure structure rating: overall moderate inflow accumulation, moderate selling pressure.

(Net Position of Bingtang Orange Exchange as shown in the following figure)

The overall situation of Dabing is that there is a large amount of inflow accumulation, and currently only a small part of the inflow chips have been digested.

(Net position of Exchange E in the following figure)

The second-tier cryptocurrency is experiencing a small inflow.

(High Weight Throw Pressure in the figure below)

No high-weight selling pressure at present.

Purchasing Power Rating: Global purchasing power has slightly decreased compared to last week, and stablecoin purchasing power has also decreased slightly.

(Global purchasing power status as shown below)

5. Global purchasing power has slightly decreased compared to last week, and stablecoin purchasing power has also slightly decreased.

7. The probability of not breaking below 36000-38000 in the short term is 80%; the probability of not rising above 45000-47000 in the short term is 57%.

• Market tone: The market is expected to remain largely consistent with last week. There may be some minor pressure in the short term, but no significant downward fluctuations are expected. Instead, there may be some volatility in derivative clearing. The current outlook is not bearish, and even if there is a large amount of long liquidation, there may still be opportunities in the short term.

Risk Warning: The above is all market discussion and exploration, and does not constitute directional investment advice. Please be cautious and guard against market black swan risks.

This article is from a submission and does not represent the views of BlockBeats.

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