Electric Capital: Data analysis of crypto ecosystem developers in 2023

Original author: @eherrerosj

Translated by: Luccy, BlockBeats

Electric Capital released an updated October developer data analysis on social media platform on October 19th, indicating through data that the number of new developers exploring cryptocurrency will decrease by 2023. BlockBeats has compiled and translated the updated content as follows:

We have reviewed over 164 million encrypted submissions and have come to the following conclusions:

As of October 1, 2023, the number of active open source developers per month is 19,300. Compared to the same period last year, the number of developers has decreased by 27%.

Recently, the developers who have left the encryption industry are mainly newcomers, with less than 12 months of work experience in the encryption field, and their submitted code accounts for about 25% of all code. This finding is consistent with our research results in July 2023, and this trend is still continuing.

Related reading: "Electric Capital Latest Report: Over 21,000 Monthly Active Developers, Mature Developers Still Actively Contributing".

Since the bear market three years ago, the number of developers has increased by 66%

Compared with the previous bear market, the number of developers has increased by 66%, but the number of developers will decrease in 2023, with a decrease of 27% compared to October 2022 and a decrease of 4% compared to October 2021.

Despite long-term growth, what has happened since October 2022?

Developers with more than 1 year of experience in the encryption industry continue to contribute, while many newcomers leave

We can classify monthly active developers according to their working time in the encryption field by comparing the first and last submission time of developers.

·Newcomer: Developers who have worked in the encryption industry for less than 1 year.

·Emerging: Developers who have been working in the encryption field for 1 to 2 years.

·Maturity: Developers who have worked in the encryption industry for more than 2 years.

Over the past year, the decrease in monthly active developers is mainly due to the novice stage. This indicates that although the cryptocurrency field has long maintained a growth trend, many developers who have just joined may choose to leave for various reasons (such as market fluctuations, fierce competition, etc.) since October 2022. However, developers who have been working in the cryptocurrency field for more than 1 year are still making continuous contributions, which may mean that they have higher confidence in the cryptocurrency field or have found stable development opportunities in this industry.

We can see that the number of novice developers has decreased by 58%, the number of emerging developers has moderately increased by 11%, and the number of mature developers has slightly increased by 5%.

Why are novice developers decreasing?

2023 New developers exploring cryptocurrency decrease

First of all, the decrease in novice developers is due to fewer and fewer new developers entering the cryptocurrency field. As of October 2023, a total of 1,721 new developers have joined the cryptocurrency field. In comparison, the number of new developers entering the cryptocurrency field has decreased by 40% since June 2023, 64% since October 2022, and 67% since the market peak in November 2021.

Newcomers often dominate the market during peak periods

Secondly, during bull markets, novices dominate, but their numbers decrease during bear markets. This phenomenon has occurred in the past as well:

Within six months after the peak in January 2018, the proportion of novices reached as high as 70%.

After the peak in November 2021, the proportion of novices reached 60% within the following seven months.

However, in the 24 months following the peak in January 2018, the proportion of new and mature developers has risen to 60%.

After the peak in November 2021, the proportion of emerging and mature developers reached 70% in the following 23 months.

Despite the overall decline in monthly active developers, how important are the developers who have left?

Developers who stay in the encryption industry submit more code and are more active, and they work longer in the encryption industry than those who leave.

In the field of encryption, the vast majority of code contributions come from developers who remain in the industry:

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