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Celestia TGE Price Forecast and Simple Supply Volume Analysis

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Crypto KOL predicted the price of Celestia TGE to be as low as $2.5 by calculating the circulation volume at the time of Celestia TGE and the price of early investors.

Source: @mztacat

Translation: Luccy, BlockBeats

Encryption KOL@mztacat shared his own price prediction and supply analysis of Celestia TGE on social media platforms. BlockBeats compiles the original text as follows:

Note: This is just my personal opinion and should not be used as financial advice. It is only for reference for those who seek my advice.

Total supply = 1,000M

The circulating supply during TGE is 250 million.

The actual circulating supply during TGE = 141M.

Circulating tokens refer to unlocked tokens, such as those held by a team but not for sale. Although these tokens are in circulation, they do not have an impact as they are not being sold. Therefore, the actual circulating supply may differ from the circulating supply, but both are unlocked tokens.

Research and development and ecosystem account for 26.8%, which is 268M.

When released, only 25% will be unlocked, and the remaining 75% will continue to unlock after one year.

25 * 268M / 100 = 67M

Public allocation proportion: 7.4% + 12.6% = 20%

其中，7.4% = TGE fully unlocked

12.6% = Future Incentives. I suggest conducting a second airdrop, marketing efforts, community activities, etc. as 12.6% clearly cannot be traded on TGE.

The allocation for Blockspace Race (selected node operator) is 15M $TIA.

The total is approximately 142,050.

Due to the reward pool being 15M, 1 point is approximately equal to 105.59. The value of each point is multiplied by the total points of the participants to determine the allocation based on $TIA.

Total points * 105.59 = 14.205M (Where is the part that is less than 15M?)

Since this is an approximate value, Celestia set it to 1:100. They don't know that the decimal point is important here.

Remember that R&D and ecosystem = 67M, excluding the 15M for nodes, we have 52M left for stakers on the mainnet, rollups projects, maintenance, etc.

Through the whitepaper, it can be observed that there will be 250M in circulation within a year before linear unlocking. The actual circulating unlocking amount is 109M, which will not be under pressure during TGE.

Attention: The application form for mainnet nodes will be available after the mainnet launch. There are currently no requirements, but I will confirm as soon as possible.

Prediction: If the initial actual amount is 250M, the lowest price for $TIA is $2.5, then it will rise to $3 or $4 (>500Mcap in TGE) depending on the market's enthusiasm. I don't think this is a VC sell-off because it is a modular ecosystem, not a regular EVM.

Regarding the purchase of other secondary market items, it is said that the prices for Series A and B are around 1.6 US dollars.

Investors acquired $TIA from other early investors at a price of $2.5 per unit, resulting in a valuation of approximately $2.5 billion.

For those participants who have received something without doing anything, this is still a victory!

Additionally:

Initial core contributors: > unlocked 33% after 1 year.

Early supporters seed: 33% within 1-2 years, including $1 million raised on Binance in 2021.

Early supporters: A&B round: 33% unlocked in the first year, and the remaining 67% will continue to unlock from the first year to the second year.

Initial core contributors: 33% unlocked in the first year, with the remaining 67% continuously unlocking from the first to the third year. The listing will take place on Binance.