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Secondary market data: Recent price performance of ETH and direct influencing factors.

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Bitcoin has shown relatively strong upward momentum, making several attempts to break through the resistance zone of 28,000-28,500. Ethereum, on the other hand, has been relatively weak, testing the resistance level of 1,750 only once.

Original Title: "Analysis of ETH's Recent Price Performance and Direct Influencing Factors"

Original Source: duoduo, LD Capital

Recently, Bitcoin has been showing strong upward momentum, making several attempts to break through the resistance zone of 28000-28500. On the other hand, ETH has been relatively weak, only testing the resistance level of 1750 once. This article briefly analyzes the recent price performance of ETH and possible influencing factors.

One, Price Performance

ETH/BTC: In a bearish trend since the MERGE in 2022

Over the past year, ETH has been in a weaker position compared to BTC. Looking at the ETH/BTC index from 2022 to the present, it was in a downward trend from the beginning of 2022 to June, falling from 0.081 to around 0.050. After that, due to the positive news of the merge, there was a rebound, and in September 2022, it returned to around 0.8. After the merge was implemented, the index has been in an overall downward trend and is currently at 0.058, approaching the weekly ema200.

However, in the long term, ETH/BTC is in a growth state. Looking at a longer time frame, during the bear market period in 2018, ETH/BTC reached a low of 0.01, while in the current bear market from 2022 to now, ETH/BTC has recently been at 0.05. This is mainly due to the development and growth of the ETH ecosystem, which has accumulated a large amount of on-chain value compared to the previous bear market.

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Source: tradingview

Technical Indicators

Looking at the daily chart, ETH has been below EMA200 since the drop on August 18th, and MACD is just approaching the zero axis. Compared to BTC, BTC was above EMA200 on October 1st, and MACD also broke through the zero axis, entering the water area.

二、影响因素

translates to

2. Influencing Factors

The strength of ETH and its influencing factors are very complex. At the macro level, this includes changes in the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies and changes in SEC regulatory attitudes. At the micro level, this includes the development of the ETH ecosystem, the rise of layer 2 solutions, token consumption and supply, and market participation enthusiasm. We will only analyze the factors that have shown significant changes in the recent period.

Gas consumption significantly reduced, ETH resumes inflation

In August and September 2023, on-chain transaction activities entered a quiet period. On the one hand, there were no new hot projects on the chain, resulting in a decrease in transactions. On the other hand, several large potential airdrop projects experienced a significant amount of hacking and rug-pulling behavior, leading to a decrease in interaction enthusiasm.

On the ETH chain, gas has been maintained at below 10 gwei. The decrease in on-chain activity and gas fees has resulted in ETH supply exceeding demand in the past 30 days, leading to a recovery in inflation with an inflation rate of 0.275%. In the last 30 days, 27,000 ETH have been added to the supply.

However, overall, after the merge, ETH is still in a deflationary state. Since the merge, the inflation rate has been -0.217%, resulting in a total reduction of 277,000 ETH.

Source: ultrasound.money

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质押放缓，排队等待质押代币减少

Pledging slows down, waiting in line for a decrease in pledged tokens.Currently, there are 844,000 active staking nodes on Ethereum, with approximately 27 million ETH staked, resulting in a staking rate of 25.33%.

Overall, the current increase in pledged assets is significantly lower than that of the second quarter of 2023.

Source: OKlink

Currently, there are a total of 5723 nodes waiting to participate in staking. Ethereum can add up to 2700 new staking nodes per day. Therefore, if there is no addition of tokens, it will only take 2 to 3 days to process. This is the shortest period of time for waiting nodes to participate in staking since the Shanghai upgrade.

Source: beaconcha.in

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Founder continues to sell ETH in the past two months

The founder Vitalik has been continuously transferring ETH to exchanges. On October 7th, he transferred 1000 ETH (approximately $1.64 million) to Bitstamp. In the past two months, the address has deposited a total of 4400 ETH (approximately $7.23 million) into Bitstamp.

From the perspective of quantity and amount, this is not enough to affect the price of ETH. However, from an emotional standpoint, it will affect the confidence of investors holding it.

FTX sold ETH through hacking, causing short-term selling pressure

The main events that have affected ETH in the past 7 days are the FTX hacker selling ETH and buying BTC starting on October 1st.

In November 2022, shortly after FTX filed for bankruptcy, hundreds of millions of dollars began flowing out of exchange balances and into hacker addresses. On November 21, 2022, the hacker dispersed 185,000 ETH (308 million USD) into 13 addresses and then went into hibernation. After 10 months of hibernation, the hacker began transferring and selling the ETH from these addresses starting on September 30.

Compared to the peak earlier this year, the position has fallen by 45%; compared to the second highest point of the year, the position has fallen by 37%; compared to the position before the decline on August 18th, it has fallen by 17%.

Source: coinglass

Three, Summary

Long-term, compared to the previous bear market, ETH has been on an overall upward trend against BTC due to the development of its ecosystem, rising from 0.01 to above 0.05. However, in the past year, ETH has been in a weaker position compared to BTC, with its exchange rate in a declining state.

On a fundamental level, since the merge, ETH has been in a deflationary state with a deflation rate of -0.217%. However, in the past two months, on-chain transactions have been sluggish and gas revenue has significantly decreased, causing ETH to enter an inflationary state with a 30-day annualized inflation rate of 0.275%.

On the pledge data front, since the upgrade in Shanghai, ETH pledge has been in a continuous upward trend, with the current pledge rate at 25.33%. However, the recent increase in pledge data has slowed down. The amount of new pledges added is significantly less than that of the second quarter of this year; and the number of nodes queuing to participate in pledge has also been relatively low, the lowest since the Shanghai upgrade.

Throwing pressure up, the founder continues to sell ETH, although the quantity is not large, it has a negative impact on the confidence of holding tokens. In addition, facing significant short-term selling pressure due to the impact of FTX hackers selling ETH to buy BTC.

On contract data, ETH contract holdings have been in a downward trend this year. Compared to the high point at the beginning of the year, ETH contract holdings have fallen by 45%; compared to the second highest point of the year, holdings have fallen by 37%; compared to the holdings before the drop on August 18th, they have fallen by 17%.

Note: The data in this article is as of October 7, 2023.