"Three idiots" out, how do KOLs view the current dismal NFT market?
Writing: Cookie, Beat BlockBeats
As Blur, the liquidity engine of the NFT market, flamed out:
Blur's ETH transaction volume is declining both within Blur itself and across NFT markets (source: @punk9059)
While Doodles, Clone X, Moonbirds three "old blue chips" keep falling to become the "NFT Three Dummies," Cool Cats aren't even considered blue chips anymore:
When Beeple + Satroshi + the entire mfers community also failed to pull Nakamigos above 1 ETH...
The term "NFT bear market" has never been so popular. As a veteran dive observer in the field, I have witnessed many discussion groups on the topic of NFT fade into silence and then become reignited by the wander and arbiter "soil dog". After all, the winter in the NFT market is really tough...
NFT players have lost 1000-2000 ETH a day on all trades in the last 9 months... (Source: @punk9059)
What do the NFT leaders think of the current NFT market in this brutal and cold winter? I was lucky enough to interview 4 NFT leaders:
@JIVVVA(Twitter:@jivacore) : Imagine Labs Co-Founder, SCC Founder
@sleepy(Twitter:@sleepy0x13) : Weirdo Ghost Gang Founder
@yongkun(Twitter:@yongkunnn) : Jpeg Street Founder
@Gavin(Twitter:@Gavin_Alphas) : TreasureDAO CN Community Leader
Let's take a look at what the big guys are thinking about the current market.
BlockBeats: Doodles, CloneX, Moonbirds, Cool Cats and other old blue chips continue to fall, besides the cold NFT market, what reason has left them behind?
@JIVVVA: These four projects are "not doing things", or "doing something", but have no positive effect on their brand.
Moonbirds, Cool Cats, don't do anything.
Doodles, Clone X "do something". Doodles' problem was that the team was lacking in thinking about the overall direction of development. Clone X was parachuting some metaverse clothes, virtual clothes, shoes, etc., which was still following the "metaverse tide" narrative logic. Actions that follow the narrative logic of the Metacomverse tide may take two to three years to pay off when relatively mature metacomverse games appear or metacomverse applications are widely accepted. It's a bit ahead of its time and doesn't match the current accepted logic of the NFT market.
@sleepy: These old blue chip stragglers to me is not a surprise, more like a return to value. If there is one common problem for these old blue chips, I think it is that they all lost the support of the community.
Cool Cats decided to make games, and now he's stuck with it, making it impossible for him to return to the brand building route.
Clone X's community has been great, but they've been depleting it as a valuable asset.
Moonbirds had a rift with the community since the CC0 incident.
Not to mention Doodles, after the "missing team" incident, the founder of Doodles fought directly with the community...
@yongkunIn addition to the cold NFT market, a series of deficiencies in team development decisions and operations also accumulated from quantitative changes to qualitative changes, resulting in the old blue chips left behind. There was no real progress on the project, the launch strategy for the new series was not balanced with the existing community, and there was insufficient crisis management for some of the community's negative events.
@GavinFrom the perspective of supply and demand relationship, NFT project sublimates from "local dog" to blue chip, investment potential gradually decreases to zero, only the community consumption demand. Whether the project will continue to highlight depends on who pays the bills next. Either continue to issue NFT through the "nesting doll", or issue tokens to the traditional coin circle to take over the order, or the project side continues to make market. These projects do not have the ability of these aspects, so in the bear market spiral down.
BlockBeats: BAYC, CryptoPunks, Azuki these old blue chips are still relatively stable reasons?
@JIVVVA: BAYC, CryptoPunks, and Azuki all have their own narrative logic and are firmly following it.
BAYC engages in "brand + game". Because the brand of the whole ecosystem is hard enough, it can help to continuously tell the story of the game, and continuously deliver the things that at least meet the expectations of the community. In the process of telling the story + realizing the story, it can obtain continuous income with royalties and NFT sales to continue to support the development of the project.
CryptoPunks are "antiques", and since they are already "antiques", in fact, doing nothing will make no difference.
Azuki focuses on creating "trendy brands." The narrative logic of these projects is recognized in the current market environment.
@sleepyOne of the reasons must be that Blur didn't ban their credits, and even though it was widely known that these projects were being traded, Blur left them alone.
Another reason is that the communities of these projects are much stronger than the "stragglers" like Doodles, CloneX, Moonbirds and Cool Cats.
@yongkunCryptoPunks as the originator of PFP, its category attributes are very close to works of art. The group that holds this type of NFT does not focus too much on other capabilities, so it is relatively stable.
As the leader of PFP, BAYC has the premium of the market for the leader, and is endowed by the whole Yuga ecology behind it. Besides, it has made good progress in the metaverse, and it also has $APE as a pledge. Compared with ordinary PFPS, the asset attributes are heavier and can generate cash flow, so it is stable.
Azuki due to the brand tone and operation is relatively good, adhesion to young people is very strong, the community is currently the most active cohesion, in the background of the old blue chip general decline, but can blood other old blue chip internal roll, coupled with a strong expectation of coin issuance and speculation potential, so in the current general decline environment will buck the trend of small rise to maintain stability.
@Gavin: NFT is still in the early stage of exploration. The real core demand is avatar PFP demand. Just like the top of the female bag market can only accommodate LV, Prada and Hermes, the top PFP circuit should only survive about 3 items. And should see, these 3 projects behind the trading capital market are unusually fierce.
Punk, the founding father of NFT, still spared no effort in marketing and pioneered Christie's auction pull - up.
BAYC attracted a group of big players such as Dingaling, Maji and Franklin, and the project side further carried forward the "glorious tradition" of doll, coin issuance and money making from the etheric chain to Bitcoin.
It was Azuki that made the most of it. The founders continued to "start businesses" and "learn" (RUG money), and finally found the right place at the right time to pull capital, market rhythm, and profit community. For now, Azuki holders are still betting on their tokens.
To put it crass, the capital behind these three projects (both the acquisition capital and the profitable communities) has made enough money and is still interested in playing on these three ips.
BlockBeats: There was a recent comment that Beeple + Sartoshi + the whole mfers community couldn't get Nakamigos to break 1 ETH, and Nike (Clone X), Adidas and Puma collections didn't do well in the market. It seems that the two major forces of the NFT market - community drive and the influence of external brands - have failed. Has the fundamental logic of the NFT project changed?
@JIVVVAIn fact, the core concern of the whole NFT market is the same as the whole currency circle, which is "liquidity". After all, the NFT market itself is a marginal market, so it will be more sensitive to liquidity. So NFT projects are like "growth stocks" in the stock market, which can command a higher valuation premium under good liquidity conditions, and then return to value once the market becomes less liquid.
The meaning of "value return" is simple -- does the group of holders really like the NFT they own? If the community is to buy, do not sell, is to like, is to collect, then naturally in the market performance will show stability.
@sleepyBeeple and Sartoshi's "singly called effect" is in fact general and of little reference value.
As for Nakamigos itself, there is nothing special about Nakamigos other than Meme, and the community is not built on recognition of an idea, but on Meme. Meme = to make a meme. When the meme is over, the popularity is gone.
Clone X has been costing the community money, and the community's patience has been severely strained. Adidas has a good reputation despite mediocre market performance. Puma I don't pay much attention to.
I don't think external branding is a positive for the NFT project. Nike, for example, makes way more money selling shoes and clothes than NFT, so why bother with NFT? Only with the determination to burn Bridges will I continue to work hard on my NFT project.
@yongkunFirst of all, the NFT market is not only not increasing, but also losing stock. In the absence of inventory, all previous upward factors will be eroded, and there is no clear bottoming out yet.
So at the moment, the push from outside brands and communities is not that effective. After all, the old players have been exposed to these things for a long time, not new. Add in the fact that several of the stories mentioned in the question are old narratives, and this is not surprising. Current NFT projects are more focused on innovation, whether it's new narratives or new technologies.
@GavinThe sun rises in the east and sets in the west. It can't always be 12 o 'clock noon. And since NFT is new, early speculation is more volatile, and 99% of NFT returns to zero are inevitable.
The generative Art myth of the Beeple, or even the Art Blocks, doesn't hold up. In the end, the plate is not as big or as smooth as the community projects, market making and relay.
The next NFT to emerge should not be a simple PFP and nesting project. New concepts and narratives are needed to get the ever-overflowing, tearful Web3 players back at the NFT poker table.
BlockBeats: What else is worth paying attention to in the current NFT market?
@JIVVVAA project is worth paying attention to if its owners are "consumer collectors" who "buy pictures for love". There are many holders of Art Blocks, and items like Fidenza, Gazers, Chromie Squiggle, and Friendship Bracelets are worth watching.
@sleepy: It is basically falsified that big IRL brands send NFT projects in person. Helping brands enter Web3 Native projects is an opportunity for Web3 native projects, and may promote the "breaking circle" of NFT. In addition to the NFT mobility problem, there will be new solutions based on NFT fragmentation in the future. Unlike existing NFT fragmentation projects, Blur and OpenSea are still at risk.
@yongkunI am currently more focused on opportunities outside ETH, such as NFT on Bitcoin, which is currently thriving. In addition, new opportunities may also emerge on new chain Sui.
I'm also going to look at NFT for non-PFP narratives, where the imagination that comes with new narratives is very important.
@Gavin: NFT is also a more decentralized and off-chain thing, such as CEX can't fake data to crash the disk. In terms of projects, NFT World's attempt to develop its own game engine and channel Web2 MineCraft traffic to Web3 is noteworthy. Despite the great disadvantage of being banned by MineCraft, the team never gave up the whole project. They not only developed the game engine by themselves, but also created MetaFab, a chain game infrastructure that eliminates the friction of traditional users. It is very tough. That narrative will have a longer timeline than Open Edition.
Another thing to watch is the combination of AI, GameFi, and NFT. The DeFi circuit also has a program to convert LSD deposits and loans into NFT certificates of deposit, both of which are interesting.
conclusion
In a market that lacks incremental and lost inventory, NFT "returns to value." The narrative logic of growth NFT no longer commands a premium for projects, and the Kols' single-order effect diminishes as the market cools.
We always said that time would show how important a strong community was to an NFT project, and Blur's gradual demise accelerated the process of getting that proof. Regardless of the Token model used to stimulate liquidity, the strongest foundation for an NFT project is still the emotional connection between the picture and the holder. A handover based on emotional connection is the healthiest for the NFT project.
A large number of community creation may be one of the indicators that we judge the basic disk of NFT project at this stage. Coupled with an efficient decision-making style and the right direction choices, this could be one of many bear market survivors.
In addition, Bitcoin NFT, new NFT liquidity solutions, games that combine AI and NFT, and even the DeFi track are all still waiting to be explored. NFT still has endless possibilities.
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