The 44th week on the chain data analysis: spot selling pressure has decreased, derivatives into a higher risk area

The original title: the clouds and months, vientiane for guest | WTR10.31"

原文来源：WatchToweR 研究院

This week to review

This week from October 24 to October 31, the BTC reached a high near 21000 and a low near 19146, with a shock of about 9.6%.

Observing the recent chip distribution map, there are a large number of chips traded around 18500-19900, which will have certain support or pressure.

• & have spent Analysis:

1.  18500 ~20000     About 2.3 million

2.      21200~24000   About 1.79 million

• & have spent In the short term can not break in 16000~18500   Probability for & have spent 63%;

• & have spent The probability of not breaking 23400 ~ 26000 in the short term is 58.8%.

Important news

In economic news

• & have spent The United States

1.  The core PCE price index annual rate was 5.1% in September, up from 4.9% previously and below expectations of 5.2%. The core PCE price index came in at a 0.5 percent monthly rate, down from 0.6 percent and unchanged from expectations of 0.5 percent.

2.  The preliminary reading of the manufacturing PMI in October was 49.9, which was the first time since June 2020 to fall below the growth line. The preliminary reading of the service PMI was 46.6, which was the fourth consecutive month of contraction. The preliminary composite PMI reading was 47.3, compared with expectations of 49.3.

3.  Q3 GDP grew 2.6%, weekly jobless claims 217,000, below 220,000 expectations and above the previous reading of 214,000.

4.  The core PCE price index for the third quarter was unchanged from expectations at 4.5%.

5.  The labor cost index rose at a quarterly rate of 1.2% in the third quarter, below expectations of 1.3% and unchanged expectations of 1.2%.

6.  The average interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan in America hit a two-decade high of 7% this week.

7.  Combined US exports of crude oil and refined petroleum products surged to 11.4m b/d last week, the highest level on record, and the White House refused to rule out controls on fuel exports.

• & have spent The European Union

1.  The preliminary composite PMI for the euro area slipped to 47.1 in October, below expectations of 47.6 and the lowest reading since November 2020, while the preliminary manufacturing PMI came in at 46.6, below expectations of 47.9 and the lowest reading in 29 months. The services PMI fell to 48.2 in October, a 20-month low.

2.  The European Central Bank raised interest rates by another 75 basis points this week, and its governing council decided that it would discuss in December the key principles for reducing bond holdings under its QE program and deciding to reduce asset purchases.

3.  Wall Street expects the Stoxx Europe 600 index to fall 17 percent this year to 406, its worst performance since the 2008 global financial crisis.

4.  Germany's GDP grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter and 1.2% year-on-year in the third quarter, both beating market expectations.

5.  German consumer prices rose 10.4 percent in October from a year earlier, higher than market expectations of a 10.1 percent rise, according to the Federal Statistics Office.

• & have spent Asia

1.  This week, the government announced it would start buying 1.6 trillion won worth of corporate bonds. Financial institutions will also pay 3 trillion won into a fund to stabilize credit markets.

2.  This week the government unveiled a new stimulus package, spending an additional 29.1 trillion yen ($200 billion); Including local governments and the private sector, the total will be 71.6 trillion yen ($490 billion).

• & have spent other

1.  Trading volumes in global foreign exchange markets have jumped to a record high, according to the Bank for International Settlements.

a.  The dollar remains the largest currency, accounting for about 88% of foreign exchange transactions.

b.  Rmb saw the largest increase in market share, expanding from 4.3% to 7% and rising from 8th to 5th in 2019.

Aspects of encrypted ecological messaging

1.  Singapore High Court: NFTS can be considered property  

2.  The Apple App Store will provide in-app NFTS casting, purchasing and selling services

3.  PayPal has added a key as an account login method

4.  Rishi Sunak, new UK Prime Minister: I prefer BAYC to Crypto Punks

5.  Five countries control 30% of the world's bitcoin nodes: the US 1,844, Germany 1,362, France 434, the Netherlands 374 and Canada 297

6.  Data: 63% of Ethereum blocks are currently under OFAC review

7.  Ethereum developers hope to achieve four key goals in the next year, including scalability, privacy, base layer censorship resistance, and account abstraction, and Vgod believes that addressing scalability is the first priority

8.  Hong Kong plans to legalise retail cryptocurrency trading in a bid to become a crypto hub

9.  Telegram launched a user name auction platform based on TON chain

10.  The Public Chain Sei released a white paper: Introducing the Twin-Turbo Consensus and Parallelizing the Cosmos Chain

11.  OpenSea found a vulnerability in old contracts that put users at risk of NFT theft who did not cancel Wyvern license

12.  Public chain Sei: 1% of the Token supply is allocated to incentive test networks and rewards early community members

13.  The merger reduces the power consumption of the Ethereum network by more than 99.9%

14.  ZkSync is working on an Ethereum Layer3 network called "Opportunity"

15.  DogeCoin's market capitalization topped $15 billion, making it the 8th most valuable cryptocurrency in the world

16.  Onyx, a block chain owned by jpmorgan Chase & Co., has launched four new products, including a digital asset trading platform, to enable different types of digital asset value exchange.

Long-term insight: used to observe our circumstances over time; Bull/bear/structural change/neutral state

Mid-term exploration: To analyze what stage we are in, how long will it last, and what will happen to us

Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; And the possibility of certain directions and certain conditions

  Long-term insight

• & have spent State heat map of each participant group

• & have spent Chip state heat diagram

This week sees the market and industry from the perspective of synergy.

(Figure below: State heat map of each participant group)

In addition to the market overall ordinary users in the state of growth, other whale and large and other participants have entered the wait-and-see or slightly thrown attitude.

The effect of a single entity on the market, whether a whale or a large individual, will be small, even in some cases negligible.

At the same time, however, it is important to note that if the market is divided, the power of the market in one direction will decrease.

That is to say, the market effect and space caused by reasonable is the strongest.

The current state of resultant forces has become relatively weak.

The same can be applied to the current market judgment:

If the current state is maintained, the upward space may become limited for the future.

(Heat map of chip state below)

This can be seen intuitively, the market in the continuous rise of the short - term participants of the capital will always rush.

They will push market forces even higher, but at the same time bring hidden dangers.

The performance of market forces slowly collapse, is unable to maintain the current state of time; This point, in the future market judgment is especially important.

Medium-term probe

• & have spent Market capitalization and realized value group

• & have spent Network emotional positivity

• & have spent The proportion of futures clearing

• & have spent The amount of stablecoins in circulation

• & have spent USDC and USDT purchasing power

• & have spent BTC new force

• & have spent New Forces in ETH

• & have spent Monthly and annual CDD status

• & have spent Net position on Topwhale Trading platform

Market Cap & Trading Status Rating: Market cap is in the undervaluation zone, trading activity is rising slowly

(Chart below: Market capitalization and realized value group)

Look at market capitalization and realized value from three perspectives,

1.  Total market capitalization to realized value ratio

2.  Long-term holder market capitalization to realized value ratio

3.  Short - term holder market capitalization to realized value

When the average of the three indicators is less than 1, the market is in historically undervalued territory. The current market has experienced a price rebound, is still in the historical undervaluation area.

(Picture below: Positive online emotions)

以交易量为度量标准，衡量市场中的 Token 活动积极性。当前链上有轻微的交易情绪修复。

Derivatives clearing rating: Short clearing accounts for a small proportion

(Share of futures clearing in the chart below)

Green area: long liquidation ratio

Red area: short liquidation ratio

Blue line: derivative risk coefficient

Futures clearing may reflect the volatility of the market, the proportion of long and short clearing in the past month is relatively small.

It is possible that the market has no obvious "long or short tendency" when the influencing factors (derivatives, selling pressure, purchasing power, active state, etc.) are contracting, which may lead to a low volatility in the market.

Now may be in the more dangerous position of long.

At this time, the reference "derivative risk coefficient" may have a better reference significance, that is, the stock interaction condition judgment, which is suitable for shock strategy.

Take a closer look at recent purchasing power impact factors.

Purchasing power rating: Incremental USDC inflows, but small purchasing power increments

(Figure below stablecoins in circulation)

Both USDT and USDC stablecoin flows have an upward inflection point.

The USDC experienced a slight repair after experiencing a large number of in-field outflows;

USDT continues to maintain a small inflow into the field, which may be biased toward the layout or construction of funds in the activity.

(USDC and USDT purchasing power below)

This measure measures the incremental purchasing power generated by the USDC and USDT within the trading platform.

Blue: incremental purchasing power of the USDT and USDC

Orange: Resistance band of potential selling pressure generated when a large amount of BTC and ETH flows into the trading platform

At present, there is still some incremental purchasing power inflow, but the overall magnitude is small; The resistance band is not shown, and the rising resistance may be small.

It is possible that the current risk to be avoided is insufficient upward momentum, similar to the situation of insufficient upward momentum when ETH2.0 is expected.

New force rating: BTC new force weakened, ETH new force decreased greatly

(Picture below: New Power of BTC)

The strength of BTC's new force is reduced, with a slight downward turning point.

(Figure below ETH New force)

ETH new forces have not performed well in recent years, with a large decline.

Selling pressure rating: High age high coin volume selling pressure range slightly increased, but the range is small

(Chart below shows monthly and annual CDD status)

CDD is used to measure the selling pressure of high age and high currency age.

Orange line: Ratio of monthly to annual CDD

Blue line: MVRV ratio

Green area: the historically low risk area marked when the monthly to annual CDD ratio > 1 and the MVRV ratio > 1

At present, the orange line has a slow rise, with a small overall range. It may be that high age and high coin quantity lead to a small rise in selling pressure.

Topwhale Status Rating: Slowing the pace of outflows, with slight inflows into trading platforms

(Chart below shows Topwhale's net position)

巨鲸交易平台净头寸显示，巨鲸稍微放缓在交易平台的「流出积累」风格，当前该群体持有的 Token 轻微流入交易平台形成「潜在抛压」。

Short-term observation

• & have spent Derivative risk coefficient

• & have spent Option intention-to-trade ratio

• & have spent Volume of derivatives

• & have spent Turnover of profit and loss

• & have spent The capital cost curve of the futures

• & have spent Net position on BTC trading platform

• & have spent Net position of ETH Trading platform

• & have spent High weight throw pressure

• & have spent State of global purchasing power

• & have spent Net position on stablecoin trading platform

• & have spent Off-chain trading platform data

Derivative rating: Stuck in a higher risk zone, may take time to digest the risk

(The following figure shows the risk coefficient of derivatives)

Derivatives risk has reached a relatively high risk, betting on the long side is a relatively low profit-loss ratio of things.

However, it should also be noted that the rate of change of derivatives is negative (red quantity chart)

Relatively speaking short changes have also become more, short competition fierce words, may reduce the profit between short space.

So even though there might be a high risk there might not be a lot of room because the short change rate is high.

(Option intent to trade ratio below)

There has been a large liquidation of short positions, or long bets, in the preceding days.

In short, from the trading volume, did not achieve a smooth delivery, but again bet or stop the loss.

May show that the previous option short concede phenomenon.

For now, option participants are in wait-and-see mode.

(Chart Derivatives volume)

The percentage of bets now is much lower than it used to be.

The current market has cooled down relative to a few days.

Sentiment State rating: Futures participants are slightly more bullish

(Figure below: Turnover of profit and loss)

Stampede sentiment and profit selling pressure sentiment eased.

Spot market sentiment eased.

(Chart below shows the capital cost curve of futures)

The capital expense rate of futures is rising relatively gradually, indicating that the sentiment of long futures participants is slowly heating up.

There is a slight increase in bullish sentiment. When the sentiment of bullish funds increases to a certain extent, it may lead to excessive burden on the market, causing stagflation or liquidation risk.

Spot and cast pressure structure rating: relative wait-and-see, cast pressure has also fallen

(Figure below: Net position of BTC Trading platform)

Has been showing weak outflows, may be a symbol of the market slightly wait-and-see.

(Figure below ETH Trading platform net position)

It's also a weak outflow;

The performance of integrated BTC and ETH showed micro accumulation.

Perhaps because of the slightly higher prices, most participants are slightly deterred.

(High weight pressure below)

Compared to the previous slightly higher selling pressure also decreased.

(New and active addresses)

The status of new and active addresses is relatively good.

Compared with a week ago has a quite strong recovery, for the market's capacity to undertake is a relatively good phenomenon.

Purchasing power rating: European and American purchasing power has been repaired, stablecoins have not suffered serious losses

(Figure below: Global purchasing power state)

The loss of purchasing power in Asia slowed temporarily, and it was gradually repaired in Europe and America.

Global purchasing power is doing better than it was a month ago.

(Chart below: Net position of USDT trading platform)

The USDT currency is in an outflow state, and the inflow has slowed down greatly in the last 3 days.

(Chart below, net position of USDC trading platform)

Interestingly, USDC inflows have continued, reflecting the revival of purchasing power in the US and Europe.

Off-chain transaction data rating :20, 000, 19, 000 respectively potential purchase intention

(Image below: Binance trading platform order book)

There is some potential selling pressure around 21000,21500 above;

There are some potential buying intentions below 20,000, 19,000.

Given that the numbers haven't changed much on other trading platforms, hold on.

This week's summary:

Summary of message surface:

This week's U.S. PCE price index and labor costs are still high, but they have been one of the few better than expected so far this year.

Next week's Fed rate hike is still expected to be 75 basis points.

How far the Fed raises interest rates may depend more on the inflation-turning point; Therefore, whether the current situation is the inflation-turning point is the most important.

The process of raising interest rates slowly reaches the overall point of 65 to 70 percent, and as boots are dropped, market sentiment will slowly ease.

When emotions no longer dominate, rational decision making slowly catches up.

The market will slowly return to rational assessment, in general, the market's high and low, are the result of sentiment.

At the same time in the encryption end; Good news is coming to the industry too, but the policy side needs to pay more attention to the attitudes of big countries, which tend to have more capital and more talent in reserve.

So their impact on the industry will be geometrically exponential, but it needs to be stretched out.

The current favorable policy is somewhat similar to the previous new energy vehicle policies in various countries.

But for the builders, the real industrial development of ecological construction or infrastructure construction is a long period to warm up.

It could take five to eight years; The development of things is always accompanied by the negation of the negation, the future in the medium and long term may be more important is the financial facilities and related infrastructure to catch the explosion.

Long-term insights on the chain:

1.  The effect of a single entity on the market, whether a whale or a large individual, will be small, even in some cases negligible.

2.  At the same time, however, it is important to note that if the market is divided, the power of the market in one direction will decrease.

3.  Short - term players can push market forces even higher, but they also bring risks.

4.  It is especially important to judge the market to judge the resultant force state.

• & have spent Market setting:

The current resultant force state has begun to decline relatively.

On-chain metaphase exploration:

1.  Market capitalization and realized value group are still in the historical undervaluation area;

2.  Slight trade sentiment repair;

3.  The proportion of futures clearing indicates that the recent clearing volume is small, which may be in a more dangerous position of long;

4.  The amount of stablecoins in circulation, USDC and USDT both showed slight incremental signs;

5.  Incremental purchasing power of USDC and USDT increased slightly;

6.  The new force of BTC was slightly weakened, and the new force of ETH was greatly reduced.

7.  Monthly and annual CDD situation, high age high coin volume selling pressure increase range is small;

8.  Whales slow down "outflow accumulation".

• & have spent Market setting:

slow

There is still incremental purchasing power flowing in, but the BTC new force is slowing down the pace, and the whale is slowing down the "outflow accumulation" state.

Short-term on-chain observation:

1.    Derivatives are stuck in higher risk areas, so be aware of the risk when placing bets;

2.  Derivatives risk may take time to digest, but the room for clearing may be reduced by heavy shorts;

3.  Futures bullish sentiment has slightly increased;

4.  Overall spot selling pressure has fallen, but the market into a mild wait-and-see;

5.  European and American purchasing power repair, stablecoins did not appear serious loss;

6.  There's a little bit of willingness to buy around 20,000 and 19,000 below;

7.  In the short term can not break in 16000~18500   Probability for & have spent 63%;

8.  The probability of not breaking 23400 ~ 26000 in the short term is 58.8%.

• & have spent Market setting:

As a result of the market squeeze short effect caused by the sudden rise in the market, cash holders into a temporary wait-and-see state.

But still spot selling pressure is not large, need to pay attention to the risk of derivatives digestion.

Strategy advice: The long strategy needs to be more cautious than before, and the difficulty will increase.

Risk tips:  

The above are market discussion and exploration, and do not have directional opinions on investment; Beware of and prevent black swan risks in the market.

The views of BlockBeats are not reflected in this article.    

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