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Spot market shows a significant outflow, but selling pressure has decreased.

WatchToweR Crypto

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Current market sentiment is low, with low activity and a lack of bullish momentum.

Original Title: "Ouzhu Jinyan, Heqing Haiyan | WTR 6.12"

Source: WatchToweR Research Institute

This Week Review

From June 6th to June 12th this week, the highest price of Bingtang Orange was around $27355, and the lowest was close to $25351, with a fluctuation range of about 7.33%.

Observing the chip distribution chart, there is a large volume of chips traded around $26770, which will provide certain support or pressure.

Analysis:

24000 - 29000 approximately 3.22 million pieces;

18500 - 23500 approximately 2.09 million pieces.

Probability of not breaking below 18000~22000 in the short term is 58%.

The probability of not breaking through 26500-29000 in the short term is 71%.

Important News

Economic News

1. United States:

In April 2023, wholesale inventories in the United States fell by 0.1% on a monthly basis, lower than the previously expected 0.2% decline. Compared with the same period last year, wholesale inventories surged by 6.3%.

The Federal Reserve's second most important interest rate decision, with a 71.3% probability that the June interest rate will remain unchanged.

The number of initial jobless claims in the United States was 261,000 last week, higher than the expected value of 235,000 and higher than the previous value of 232,000.

2. EU:

In the first quarter of 2023, seasonally adjusted GDP in the Eurozone decreased by 0.1%, while GDP in the European Union increased by 0.1%.

In March 2023, the year-on-year growth rate of the Consumer Price Index in the European Union was 8.3%, lower than the previous month's 9.9%.

3. Asia:

The growth of developing Asia is expected to be 4.8% this year and in 2024, higher than last year's 4.2%.

The recovery of China and the demand from India will be the main growth drivers in the region this year and next year.

4. Gary Gensler, the head of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), stated that the majority of cryptocurrency tokens pass the Howey Test for investment contracts.

5、Bank of Canada raises interest rates by 25 basis points.

6. The chairpersons of the Financial Services Committee and the Agriculture Committee of the U.S. House of Representatives have released a discussion draft of legislation on digital assets, which proposes the establishment of a CFTC-SEC Joint Advisory Committee on Digital Assets.

7. Binance stated that the bank is cutting off its connection with the US banking system.

8. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon has warned that the commercial real estate sector may face difficulties ahead.

9. UBS has successfully completed the acquisition of Credit Suisse, but now needs to fulfill its commitment that this government-led bailout will bring benefits to shareholders and Swiss taxpayers.

10. Many Wall Street banks expect that the Federal Reserve will adopt a "hawkish pause" policy at the June meeting.

11. The report points out that China cannot rely on exports from Southeast Asia to offset the impact of the slowdown in the US economy.

On-chain spot total selling pressure.Net position of large USD exchange

(Long-term participant holding structure as shown below)

Long-term participants have temporarily suspended their position increases and instead turned to slightly selling.

Of course, the overall level of selling is not high, and long-term participants are in a wait-and-see state.

(Premium rate of on-chain network activity)

The on-chain enthusiasm is relatively declining, and the market sentiment and activity have reached a certain state of weakness.

(The total selling pressure of on-chain spot trading is shown in the figure below)

Macro spot selling pressure is still at historically low levels, and the current level of selling pressure is not particularly high.

More confidence is needed for recovery and an increase in purchasing power.

(Net position of large USD trading exchanges as shown in the figure below)

The current situation of the exchange, ranging from $10,000 to $10 million, is mostly in the state of outflow, and these groups tend to hoard more in the current market.

However, the overall inventory status has relatively decreased compared to a half quarter ago.

And, if the net position of the exchange with a transaction volume of over 10 million US dollars shows an inflow, there may be significant capital suppression.

Mid-term exploration

Short-term profit percentage compound model.

Short-term participant deposit analysis

Long-term participant deposit analysis

WTR Risk Index

(Short-term profit percentage compound model as shown in the figure below)

Blue Line: Long-term group accumulation coefficient.

Orange Line: Supply of Short-term Participants

From the current situation, it appears that the medium to long-term group is still maintaining an accumulation pace, while the trend of increasing volatility is emerging with the change in market conditions.

Short-term participants have shown relatively lackluster performance, possibly due to a decrease in confidence caused by a reduction in the holding effect and profit-making effect at the spot level. Therefore, they are maintaining a rational and observant attitude.

It also reflects the characteristics of the current lack of activity and insufficient liquidity supply in the market.

(Short-term participant deposit analysis as shown in the figure below)

Blue area: The proportion of the short-term participants' deposit amount to their supply in terms of depositing coins. Red area: Proportion > 1%.

Set a warning value of 1% in the supply of short-term participants. If exceeded, it indicates the possibility of potential selling pressure from short-term participants in the market.

The current trend is in an upward direction with short-term participants exerting selling pressure. A more cautious approach would be to wait for a period of calm after the sharp decrease in selling pressure before making further observations.

Currently, the limited number of short-term participants in the market are exerting pressure, which will cause the market to enter a certain state of pressure.

The content you provided is:

Derivative trading volume.Options Implied VolatilityProfit and loss transfer amount.

High weight throw pressure.Global purchasing power status.Off-chain exchange data.

(The following chart shows the ratio of option intention to transaction)

The trading volume of options has increased, and the put protection ratio is still maintained at a relatively high level. (See the chart below for the trading volume of derivatives.)

(The implied volatility of options in the following figure)

The weak implied volatility of options indicates that the current activity and willingness of option traders are low.

Emotional State Rating: Low

During last week's market correction, the amount of transferred losses saw a significant increase. Currently, there are still signs of an upward breakthrough.

Last week it was mentioned to combine the chip chart to observe the chip accumulation level at the 26K price point. The current price has fallen below 26K, which may form a larger resistance level.

(新增地址和活跃地址)

(Note: The above content contains HTML tags and English characters, which should not be translated. All Chinese characters should be translated.)

Newly added and active addresses are at a medium to low level. Overall, the market's activity and investor participation are still not high.

Spot and selling pressure structure rating: Overall, there is a large outflow state, and the selling pressure has decreased slightly.

(Net Position of Bingtang Orange Exchange as shown in the following figure)

The net position of Da Bing Exchange has shown a significant outflow. This indicates a decrease in selling pressure in the current market.

(Net position of E-Tower Exchange shown in Figure E below)

Ethereum Exchange (EEX) has seen a significant outflow of net positions.

(High Weight Throw Pressure in the figure below)

There is currently no high-weight selling pressure.

Purchasing Power Rating: Global purchasing power loss, stablecoin purchasing power loss.

(Global purchasing power status as shown in the figure below)

The purchasing power of Asia and Europe is still negative, while that of America has slightly rebounded.

(Net position of USDC exchange shown below)

The net position of USDC exchange shows an outflow state.

USDT trading exchange net positions are also showing outflow status.

Off-chain transaction data rating: Willing to buy at 24500; willing to sell at 29000.

(下图 Coinbase 链下数据)

Translation:

(Coinbase off-chain data as shown below)

There is a willingness to buy at the price range of 24000, 24500, and 25000.

There is a willingness to sell at around 30000.

(下图 Binance 链下数据)

Translation:

(The following image shows Binance off-chain data)

There is a willingness to purchase at prices around 23000, 24000, and 25000.

There is a willingness to sell at prices around 27000, 28000, and 29000.

(Bitfinex off-chain data below)

There is a willingness to sell at around 27000 price level.

This Week's Summary:

Summary of News:

Overview of the US Economy:

The US economy is still growing, although the pace may be slowing down.

The core inflation rate has slightly decreased, but it is still higher than the historical average level, which may trigger further attention to inflation pressure.

The decline in wholesale inventory indicates that despite the possible easing of supply chain issues, commercial inventory may still be low, which could have an impact on future production and sales.

Eurozone Economic Overview:

The GDP of the Eurozone showed a slight decline in the first quarter of 2023, indicating that the European economy may be facing some challenges.

The year-on-year growth rate of the Consumer Price Index has decreased, but it is still higher than the historical average level, which may raise concerns about inflation.

Asian Economic Overview:

The economic growth in developing Asia is expected to remain stable, mainly due to China's economic recovery and India's domestic demand growth.

Finance:

UBS's acquisition of Credit Suisse is a significant event that may change the financial landscape in Switzerland and globally.

The settlement between JPMorgan and Epstein's victims may further draw attention to internal control and compliance issues within financial institutions.

The financial institution cutting off Binance's access may affect the liquidity and stability of the cryptocurrency market.

Outlook:

In the future, investors may need to closely monitor inflation and supply chain issues, which could have significant impacts on the global economy.

In the financial sector, the integration of UBS and Credit Suisse, compliance issues for financial institutions, and the stability of the cryptocurrency market will be key issues to watch.