Original Title: "On-Chain Brightness in the Macro Fog: Is the True Value of Cryptocurrency Being Reassessed When Safe-Haven Demand Meets Whale Frenzy? | WTR4.21"

Original Source: WTR Research Institute

Weekly Recap

For the week of April 14th to April 21st, Bitcoin's price reached a high near $88,465 and a low close to $83,111, with a fluctuation range of approximately 6.44%. Observing the chip distribution chart, a significant amount of chips were traded around 80,000, providing some support or pressure.

• Analysis:

1. 60000-68000: ~1.59 million coins;

2. 76000-89000: ~1.83 million coins;

3. 90000-100000: ~1.96 million coins;

• There is an 80% probability of not breaking below 70,000-75,000 in the short term;

• The probability of not breaking above 90,000-95,000 in the short term is 70%.

Key News

Economic News

1. The U.S. Dollar Index weakened, breaking through the 100, 99, 98 thresholds consecutively.

2. Gold prices surged by 3% to $3,430 per ounce, with a year-to-date cumulative increase of about 30%, hitting 55 all-time highs in nearly 12 months.

3. Trump continues to pressure Powell: Trump has publicly criticized Powell multiple times, calling him "Mr. Too Slow" and the "real loser," believing that interest rates should have been cut long ago, accusing him of being hesitant, and urging for a "preemptive rate cut." He attributes stock market declines and recession risks to Powell's failure to cut rates.

4. Market concerns about the Fed's independence: Analysts believe that the news of Trump replacing Powell is one of the triggers for recent market volatility, with the core concern being the market's worry about the Fed's independence being compromised.

5. Political pressure impact: Economics professors believe that while Trump may find it difficult to fire Powell, his public pressure will influence the Fed's decisions, making them aware that not cutting rates in the event of an economic downturn will result in public criticism.

6. Rate cut expectations rising: The market is closely watching and betting on the Fed possibly shifting to a more accommodative policy in June or the summer. The CME FedWatch shows a 75% probability of a rate cut in June. Citibank maintains the expectation of a 125 basis point rate cut by 2025 and anticipates the next cut in June.

7. Rate cuts become a core narrative: The market anticipates entering the "rate cut mainstream" in June as the narrative driving the next stage of the market.

8. European Central Bank and Digital Euro:

◦ The European Central Bank (ECB) report predicts that the digital euro will replace some banknotes, change the way money is used, and impact bank deposits.

◦ The ECB emphasizes that the introduction of the digital euro is to address the rise of the US dollar stablecoins and other cryptocurrencies, and to curb the expansion of the "debanking" solution.

Crypto Ecosystem News

1. BTC Strengthens Linkage with Gold: BTC initially displayed a safe-haven attribute similar to gold on Monday but later fell due to drag from the US stock market. Recent analysis suggests that BTC was influenced by the rise in gold, aligning the safe-haven narrative with a weak dollar, uncertainty in US bonds.

2. BTC's price once exceeded $87,000, believed to be related to the decline in the US dollar, rise in gold, and concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence.

3. CryptoQuant analysts believe that the current situation is more likely a correction rather than the start of a bear market, as the previous rise was moderate and not overheated, with manageable downside risks.

4. Altcoin Market: Coinmarketcap data shows that the altcoin season index has rebounded from a low point but is still far below the average of the past few months, indicating a slight market recovery. Matrixport believes that a significant rise in altcoins requires catalysts such as dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, stablecoin growth, or macro liquidity improvement.

5. Korea's BTC premium rate (Kimchi Premium) has risen to about 2%, seen by some analysts as an early sign of strong demand and potential price rebound.

6. Expectation of Bottoming Out and Narrative Shift: The market is watching whether BTC and altcoins have bottomed out and expects a transition to the next narrative stage centered around the "Fed rate cut in June."

7. Last week, the US BTC spot ETF saw a cumulative net inflow of only $13.7 million, while the ETH spot ETF saw a net outflow of $32.3 million, indicating a weakening inflow momentum.

8. Institutional and Whale Activity:

◦ Japanese listed company Metaplanet increased its holdings by 330 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 4855 BTC.

◦ Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) spent approximately $556 million in a week to acquire 6556 BTC at an average price of around $84,785. Saylor stated that over 13,000 institutions and 814,000 retail investors hold MSTR.

◦ Glassnode data shows that the number of addresses holding over 1000 BTC increased from the end of February to April 15th (2037 -> 2107), approaching levels seen at the end of last year; while addresses holding less than 10 BTC continue to decrease.

9. Regulatory and Policy Updates:

◦ U.S. State-level Legislation Progress:

▪ Texas held a hearing on the "BTC Strategic Reserve and Investment Act."

▪ Arizona's "Strategic Digital Asset Reserve Act" (SB 1373) passed through a House committee and is awaiting further votes and approval.

◦ Federal Perspective: Senator Cynthia Lummis suggested that if the U.S. government were to purchase BTC with gold certificates valued at 1974 levels, it could potentially cut the national debt in half over 20 years without the need for additional tax revenue.

◦ Reduced Regulatory Risks: Analysis by Matrixport suggests that BTC's regulatory risks in the U.S. have significantly decreased, with this being one of the reasons for its better performance during this correction phase compared to previous ones.

10. Digital Euro Development: The European Central Bank is actively advancing the Digital Euro project to address challenges posed by cryptocurrencies and stablecoins.

Long-term Insights: Used to observe our long-term outlook; Bull Market / Bear Market / Structural Changes / Neutral State

Medium-term Analysis: Used to analyze the current stage we are in, how long this stage might last, and what conditions we might face

Short-term Observations: Used to analyze short-term market conditions; as well as the likelihood of certain events occurring in a particular direction and under certain premises

Long-term Insights

• $92.4k is a key price level. For a large number of short-term holders (STH) who bought near the recent highs, this is their average cost line.

• The anchoring effect will play a significant role here: as the price bounces back near $92.4k, these trapped STH will have a strong "break-even and sell" urge to avoid further losses. This will create a visible supply pressure wall. The short-term market direction will to a large extent depend on whether it can effectively absorb and break through this barrier created by the STHs unwinding their positions.

• If unable to break through: If the price fails to break above $92.4k after multiple attempts or faces significant selling pressure leading to a pullback, it will reinforce bearish sentiment in the market. STHs may lose patience, triggering a larger-scale sell-off (capitulation), and the price may further decline to find lower support levels. This could also prompt accumulating whales to slow down and wait for better prices.

• If successfully break through: If there is enough strong buying volume (such as sustained ETF inflows or further whale accumulation) to absorb the unwinding at $92.4k and drive the price to firmly hold above it, this will be an extremely significant bullish signal. It not only relieves the pressure from STHs but may also trigger short covering and FOMO emotions from off-chain funds, accelerating the price increase.

• Previously, "massive outflows" represented whales aggressively accumulating and locking up chips at low prices, regardless of cost. Now, the "relatively reduced" outflow may signify:

a. The most panicked/most valuable stage is over? Whales may believe that the easiest stage to absorb cheap chips has passed, and their initial accumulation target may have been partially achieved.

b. Tactical pause? They may be waiting for clearer market signals (such as macro news landing, price direction confirmation) to carry out the next large-scale operation.

c. Change in chip absorption method? They may be shifting from withdrawing from centralized exchanges to more discreet OTC trading or other methods. The marginal decrease in whale outflow indicates that the most potent active buying force in the market, their "firepower," may have weakened in the short term. This could make it more challenging to break through the $92.4k resistance wall or extend the market's consolidation period in the current range. This is not necessarily a bearish signal (as there is still a net outflow), but it implies that the likelihood of short-term reliance on whale "violent pumping" is decreasing.

• If the outflow continues to decrease or even turns into a net inflow: This would be a strong warning signal, indicating a reversal of whale accumulation intent, and the market may face genuine selling pressure, severely weakening the previously constructed bullish logic.

• If the outflow remains at a "relatively reduced" level: The market may enter a phase dominated by other factors (such as ETF flows, retail sentiment, news aspects), where volatility may decrease, but directional sense may be more ambiguous, requiring more time to build a base or awaiting catalysts.

• If the outflow amplifies again: It will confirm that whales have only made a temporary adjustment, and the accumulation intent remains strong, significantly bullish for the market to break through key resistance levels.

This "very large" single-day inflow occurred against a backdrop of strong macro risk aversion and price pullback, with its driving force likely being traditional capital's "hedging/bottom-fishing" allocation demand, viewing BTC as an alternative asset similar to gold. Its significance lies in proving that the ETF channel can still attract a large amount of capital under specific conditions, and this portion of capital may have a higher price sensitivity.

• The key is sustainability: Is this pulse a "one-day trip" or the beginning of a new trend? This directly relates to whether the market can receive sustained external liquidity.

• If the inflow continues: It will provide a strong incremental buy-side, significantly enhancing the ability to break through the $92.4k resistance wall and may attract more momentum funds.

• If the inflow rapidly dries up: It indicates that this was just a short-term stimulus response, and the market still needs to rely on internal forces (whales, LTH belief) to digest selling pressure, making it more challenging to break through $92.4k.

This is the most robust and structurally significant bullish signal. It is independent of short-term price fluctuations and sentiment, reflecting a deep-seated, sustained trend of supply lockup in the market. This continuous tightening of the supply side is a core medium- to long-term bullish factor, continuously raising the supply threshold that needs to be overcome for future price increases. It acts as a "slow variable," continuously providing support to the market, increasing the difficulty of deep retracements, and laying the foundation for future supply squeeze rallies. This can partly hedge against the pressure from short-term holders (STH) and the uncertainty brought by whale behavior changes.

Future Outlook:

The current market is at a critical juncture where the pressure from short-term holders (STH) ($92.4k anchoring effect) is facing off against strong underlying accumulation (whale outflows + rapid increase in ISSR + pulse-like ETF inflows).

Geopolitical risks, uncertainty surrounding a significant interest rate cut, Trump's remarks, and other macroeconomic factors have added tremendous uncertainty and volatility to this confrontation.

• Evolution of the Core Standoff:

What was previously a comprehensive tug-of-war between bulls and bears now resembles more of a "STH escape desire" vs "whale/long-term holders/new ETF capital absorption determination."

• Response Pathway:

a. Short-term Focus ($92.4k Battle): The reduced outflows from whales may make the short-term breach of $92.4k more dependent on the sustainability of ETF inflows and the endurance of ISSR accumulation. If ETF inflows are not sustained and whales do not re-enter the market, relying solely on the slow variable of ISSR (non-liquid whales) may make it difficult to quickly break through $92.4k, leading to a potential tug-of-war in this area that exhausts STH endurance.

b. If $92.4k Resistance Persists: It may trigger deeper despair selling by STH, in which case, it will be necessary to observe whether whales will increase outflows again (buying the dip), and whether ISSR (non-liquid whales) can continue to rapidly increase to absorb this supply. If whales do not buy the dip or the growth rate of non-liquid whales slows down, the market may experience a deeper correction.

c. If $92.4k is Successfully Breached: It will significantly improve market sentiment, possibly triggering a positive feedback loop: relief of STH pressure -> off-chain capital entering the market due to the breakout confirmation -> potentially stimulating continued ETF inflows -> further price increase strengthening the logic of ISSR "hoarding" -> whales possibly continuing to accumulate or take profits in the trend.

d. Macro "Unique Factor": Any clear signal about Federal Reserve policy (early rate cut/delayed rate cut/hawkish pivot) could instantly disrupt the existing balance and become a key catalyst in determining short-term direction.

Mid-term Exploration

• Network Sentiment Positivity

• Various Price Structure Analysis Models

• ETH Transaction Platform Circulation Ratio

• Derivative Unilateral State

• Long-term, Short-term Holding Supply

(Network Sentiment Positivity Chart Below)

Network sentiment is showing signs of recovery, indicating that on-chain sentiment is slowly improving. Based on recent conditions, if this recovery continues, a promising right-side structure may emerge.

(Various Price Structure Analysis Models Chart Below)

The current price level's supply cap is around 95,000, and as the market approaches this level, it may face significant profit-taking pressure. Additionally, the short-term cost line is currently around 920,000, which may represent a closer upper limit than the supply cap.

(ETH Transaction Platform Circulation Ratio Chart Below)

The BTC circulation ratio within the current trading platform is higher. This usually indicates that market participants are focusing on BTC, with relatively good circulation efficiency increasing transaction smoothness. Similarly, from a different perspective, in the trend of continued BTC accumulation, market liquidity focused on BTC also reflects a certain risk-averse tendency.

(Derivative Unilateral State Chart Below)

This data is produced by WTR based on BTC's liquidation status.

Blue represents a strong bearish phase, while orange represents a strong bullish phase. The current zone is within the strong bullish range.

(Long-term, Short-term Holding Supply Chart Below)

From a market perspective, the trading volume of short-term chips remains low, indicating a continued influx of long-term chips. The current speculative atmosphere may be gradually dissipating, with a rising number of chips held over longer periods.

Short-Term Observations

• Derivative Risk Index

• Option Intent-to-Trade Ratio

• Derivative Trading Volume

• Option Implied Volatility

• Profit-Loss Transfer Amount

• New and Active Addresses

• Net Long Positions on the Brown Sugar Orange Trading Platform

• Net Long Positions on the Auntie Trading Platform

• Heavy Selling Pressure

• Global Buying Power Status

• Net Long Positions on Stablecoin Trading Platforms

• Off-chain Trading Platform Data

Derivative Rating: The Risk Index is in the red zone, indicating an increase in derivative risk.

(See Derivative Risk Index chart below)

BTC price has slightly rebounded, yet the market has not fully cleared the short squeeze risk as the Risk Index remains in the red zone. Given the current market environment, there may be continued short squeezing this week, albeit at a lower magnitude.

(See Option Intent-to-Trade Ratio chart below)

The ratio and volume of put options have both declined, with the current put option ratio at a moderately high level.

(See Derivative Trading Volume chart below)

The derivative trading volume is at a moderate-low level.

(See Option Implied Volatility chart below)

The short-term implied volatility of options has not seen significant changes. Sentiment Rating: Neutral

(See Profit-Loss Transfer Amount chart below)

Market sentiment (blue line) and fear sentiment (orange line) are still at low levels, suggesting that any potential upside in the near term may be limited.

(New Addresses and Active Addresses in the chart below)

New active addresses are at low levels.

Spot Market and Selling Pressure Structure Ratings: Overall, BTC continues to see significant outflows, while ETH has only seen minor outflows.

(Boomerang Exchange Net Headwind in the chart below)

Currently, BTC is seeing significant outflows.

(E-Ternity Exchange Net Headwind in the chart below)

On the surface, it appears that there is a continuous outflow of ETH on the exchange platform, but upon closer observation of the blue line, the balance of ETH net flows on the exchange platform is nearly the same as during the market top in December. In the short term, ETH on-chain selling pressure is expected to persist.

(High-Weighted Selling Pressure in the chart below)

No significant high-weighted selling pressure observed.

Buyer Power Rating: Global buyer power is in a weakening state, while stablecoin buyer power remains steady.

(Global Buyer Power Status in the chart below)

Global buyer power saw a slight recovery last week but has once again entered a weakening state this week.

(USDT Exchange Net Headwind in the chart below)

Stablecoin buyer power is overall stable and consistent with last week.

Off-Chain Transaction Data Rating: Willingness to buy at 80000; Willingness to sell at 92000.

(Chart of Coinbase On-chain Data)

There is buying interest around the 70000-80000 price range;

There is selling interest around the 90000, 95000 price range.

(Chart of Binance On-chain Data)

There is buying interest around the 70000-80000 price range;

There is selling interest around the 92000 price range.

(Chart of Bitfinex On-chain Data)

There is buying interest around the 70000, 83000 price range;

There is selling interest around the 92000 price range.

Weekly Summary:

News Summary:

The current market is shrouded in significant macroeconomic uncertainty, as evidenced by the considerable pressure on the U.S. stock market, the soaring price of gold, and the strong safe-haven sentiment dominating traditional capital markets. The spotlight is almost entirely on the Federal Reserve, where political pressure (especially from Trump's continued criticism of Powell) and the market's high expectations of a rate cut are intertwined, making the future monetary policy path a crucial variable affecting the overall situation.

Against this backdrop, the cryptocurrency sector, particularly Bitcoin, presents a complex and differentiated picture: on the one hand, it shows a certain degree of resilience in the face of macroeconomic turbulence, with U.S. spot ETF fund flows recently shifting from significant net outflows to slight net inflows. This is a key marginal improvement signal, indicating a temporary relief from selling pressure through traditional channels and allowing the market to catch its breath at a critical juncture. On the other hand, this stabilization is not driven by strong new demand but contrasts with the "resolute behavior of key participants"—institutions like MicroStrategy and on-chain "whale" addresses continue to steadily and significantly accumulate chips, showing strong long-term conviction, while small holders exhibit an outflow trend.

Simultaneously, the marginal improvement in the U.S. regulatory environment also provides potential long-term support for the market. Therefore, the current core contradiction lies in the "external macro pressure and internal structural forces (ETF stabilization, key player accumulation, improving regulations) tug of war," which may lead to continued market volatility in the short term, extreme sensitivity to macro signals (especially the Fed's actions), and a wait for clearer catalysts to break the deadlock.

On-chain Long-term Insight:

1. The current price is running below the short-term holders' average cost (around $92.4k), putting recent entrants at a paper loss and potentially forming a sell wall around $92.4k due to anchoring effect.

2. A recent major signal is that whales have been net transferring a significant amount of Bitcoin out of exchanges, indicating a strong strategic accumulation intent and positive price outlook, significantly reducing short-term sizable sell-side supply.

3. After experiencing weakness, ETFs have recently seen a very significant single-day net inflow, indicating a strong pulse-like resurgence in demand from regulated channels, injecting important buying pressure into the market.

4. The illiquid whale ratio continues to sharply rise, indicating that BTC is being increasingly locked up for the long term and being taken out of circulation at a rapid pace, portraying a highly robust fundamental of ongoing fast supply tightening in the market.

• Market Sentiment:

The core feature of the current market state is the surface price pressure (below the short-term holders' cost line) juxtaposed with extremely strong underlying on-chain accumulation (whale net outflows, illiquid whale demand lockup, ETF demand surge), creating a stark contrast and intense confrontation. This indicates that the market is undergoing a deep retracement or "shakeout" dominated by strong buying pressure, where recent "weak hands" are under pressure, while the optimistic "strong hands" are actively absorbing and locking up the supply, leading to an extremely tight supply-demand fundamental. Therefore, despite the short-term battle around the key cost level (around $92.4k) potentially causing volatility, the overwhelmingly positive on-chain signals suggest that the market is likely to absorb pressure, confirm a bottom, and based on strengthened fundamentals, accumulate momentum for the next bullish phase.

On-chain Mid-term Probe:

• Network sentiment slowly recovering, possibly indicating a structural opportunity on the right side.

• Supply cap around 95,000, nearing this level brings significant profit-taking pressure; short-term cost at 92,000 forms a resistance level.

• BTC dominance in exchange circulation, smooth turnover and a visible risk-off tendency.

• WTR liquidation status indicates that it is currently in a bullish phase.

• Short-term chip speculative atmosphere decreasing, long-term holdings increasing.

• Market Sentiment:

Recovery, Accumulation

The market is seeking stability, emotions calming down gradually, BTC dominance in liquidity, long-term holdings increasing.

On-chain Short-term Observation:

1. The risk coefficient is in the red zone, increasing derivative risk.

2. New active addresses are relatively low.

3. Market sentiment rating: Neutral.

1. The net headroom of exchanges shows continuous large outflows of BTC and only small outflows of ETH.

2. Global buying power is in a weakening state, while stablecoin buying power remains steady.

3. Off-chain transaction data indicates buying interest at 80,000; selling interest at 92,000.

4. There is an 80% probability that the short-term floor will not drop below 70,000-75,000; with a 70% probability that the short-term peak will not exceed 90,000-95,000.

• Market Outlook:

The market will continue to be led by BTC, while market sentiment remains neutral. Expectations for this week indicate that, without external stimuli, the market's rebound space will still be limited by the short-term holder's breakeven line (92K) pressure.

Risk Warning: The above is all market discussion and exploration, and does not provide directional views on investment; please treat it with caution and be aware of and prevent market black swan risks.

This article is a contribution and does not represent the views of BlockBeats.

Welcome to join the official BlockBeats community:

Telegram Subscription Group: https://t.me/theblockbeats

Telegram Discussion Group: https://t.me/BlockBeats_App

Official Twitter Account: https://twitter.com/BlockBeatsAsia