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On-chain data analysis in the 38th week: There are signs of new user growth, and the proportion of ETH long liquidation is close to the high level of 55%

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The participation ratio of long-term investors has reached a similar level in 2015 and 2019; the market structure is similar to that in 2015 in terms of losses.

Original title: "Gold has no color, but there are slight flaws｜WTR 9.19"

Original source: WatchToweR Research Institute

This week in review

From September 12th to September 19th this week, the highest BTC was around 22,700, and the lowest was close to 19,205, with a volatility of around 16.34%.

Observing the recent chip distribution chart, there will be a large number of chips traded around 19200, which will have certain support or pressure.

Analysis:

1. ;18500~19200 about 850,000 pieces

2. 25000~30000 about 800,000

The probability of not breaking through 25000~30000 is 65%.

Important news

United States

1. U.S. Department of Energy data, U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory last week It fell 8.4 million barrels to 434.1 million barrels, the lowest level since October 1984. As of last week, the U.S. released the largest amount of SPR since May.

2. In August, the US CPI rose by 0.1% month-on-month and 8.3% year-on-year. Core consumer prices, which strip out volatile items such as energy and food, rose to 6.3 percent from 5.9 percent.

a. Wall Street suffered its worst sell-off since the coronavirus pandemic following the release of inflation data on concerns the Federal Reserve will need to act more aggressively to curb rising prices. Investors stepped up bets, with short-term government bond yields hitting their highest levels in 15 years.

3. The prospect of a sharp tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve added to the pressure on Asian currencies.

a. The offshore yuan fell 0.6% on Thursday, breaking the 7-per-dollar barrier for the first time since July 2020. The yen hovered above 24-year lows against the dollar, while the Korean won fell to levels not seen since March 2009.

4. Data from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, in July Japan’s holdings of U.S. debt decreased by US$2 billion month-on-month; mainland China’s holdings increased by US$2.2 billion month-on-month, ending seven consecutive months of reductions in U.S. debt; July Canada increased its holdings the most, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of US$20.5 billion.

5. According to data released on Friday, the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index in September hit the highest level since April. Final inflation expectations for September were the lowest in a year.

a. Fewer consumers cited supply shortages and natural gas prices in the Michigan survey, though other measures of inflation, food and housing costs, remained high.

6. The benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yield hit a three-month high this week, and the two-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 3.86%, a 15-year high.

7. The average US mortgage rate topped 6% for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis, showing that the Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary tightening policy is driving up the cost of financing home purchases.

UK & Europe

1. UK's trade deficit in goods and services (excluding precious metals) widened by £1.2 billion in the year to July to £27 billion in the year to July, close to the 1997 deficit due to higher energy prices and weaker export markets the highest record in years.

2. According to the Office for National Statistics of the United Kingdom, the unemployment rate in the United Kingdom in the three months to July fell by 0.2% from the previous quarter, the lowest level since 1974. However, this was not because more people were working and the employment rate fell by 0.2%.

3. The August CPI in the UK was 9.9% year-on-year, lower than expected.

4. European gas infrastructure data show that as of Wednesday, the EU's natural gas storage capacity has reached 84%, which is higher than the five-year average.

a. Germany's storage capacity is as high as 89%, but Germany has not been reassured by the gas storage exceeding expectations, and issued a warning that the threat of energy rationing across Europe is still increasing, and there may be a natural gas shortage in the future .

5. According to Eurostat data, factory output in 19 countries in the euro zone fell by 2.3% in July from the previous month, the largest drop since April 2020, of which the impact of a sharp drop in Irish output was greater big.

6. After European countries adopted energy intervention measures, European natural gas fell for the third consecutive week.

7. The Russian central bank announced on Friday that it would cut the benchmark interest rate by 50 points to 7.5%, and said that the inflation rate this year is expected to remain in the range of 11-13%.

Asia

1. ICBC, Bank of China, Bank of Communications and Agricultural Bank of China cut the three-year deposit rate by 0.15% to 2.6% on Thursday.

2. Bridgewater's China private equity subsidiary increased its exposure to ETFs on the three major gold trading platforms in China in the second quarter.

Crypto Market

1. Ethereum completed the official merger, the Ethereum mainnet changed from PoW to PoS, and the era of large-scale graphics card mining is over.

2. Coinbase launched an encryption policy information section, allowing users to view different legislators' views on digital assets in real time, thereby ultimately helping pro-cryptocurrency candidates accept cryptocurrency donations.

3. The White House of the United States released a regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies, including how the financial services industry should develop to make cross-border transactions easier, and how to combat fraud in digital assets.

a. The U.S. Department of the Treasury will complete the assessment of the illegal financial risks of decentralized finance by February 2023, and the assessment of non-substitutable tokens by July 2023.

4. The Epic Games game store launched the first NFT game.

5. According to data from Dune Analytics on September 12, 139,446 BNB Chain soul-bound TokenBABs have been minted, of which 1955 have been revoked, and a total of 137,491 effective minted have actually been minted.

6. Starbucks this week announced an NFT-based loyalty program in partnership with Polygon. Starbucks Odyssey will allow customers to buy and earn collectibles in the form of NFTs that will provide perks and immersive experiences.

7. CME Group announced the official launch of Ethereum options.

8. Bernstein said in a research report that the combination of the new economic model under the merger of Ethereum and the destruction of Token may lead to deflation during periods of high demand. The merger of Ethereum could lead to strong institutional adoption.

9. V god proposed "L3 vision": L2 and L3 need to have different purposes, such as L2 is used to expand L3 for customized functions, etc.

10. The chairman of the US SEC said, Cryptocurrencies and intermediaries that allow holders to stake their tokens may need to pass the Howey test to determine whether their assets are securities, which means that PoS cryptocurrencies may be subject to federal securities regulations.

Long-term insight: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state

Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and whether What is the situation?

Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; and the possibility of some directions and certain events under certain conditions

Long term insight

Long-term investors and new forces

Long-term investors realized gains and losses Ratio

ETH funding rate

(long-term investors and new forces in the picture below)

For long-term investors Participation rates have reached a level similar to 2019 in 2015.

Participants of more than one year can get strong bargaining chips, and the market structure will be further replaced.

(The ratio of realized profit and loss of long-term investors in the figure below)

The structure of long-term investors have sold loss-making chips is similar to that around 2015.

The market has experienced a slightly longer round of hovering at a low level, and the bargaining chip structure is slowly changing hands.

Currently, the market structure is similar to that in 2015 in terms of losses.

Of course, the process of induction lies in the fact that we can accept the simplest law that is consistent with our experience agreement; it is not a complete logical law.

Specific circumstances also need to engage in other market results for logical derivation.

(ETH funding rate in the picture below)

ETH's futures funding rate Before the merger of ETH, there was a huge amount of funds for short hedging to hedge risks.

There may be arbitrage of receiving forked coins and hedging funds.

Mid-term exploration

real market value

Stable coin circulation

Achieved The ratio of profit to real market value

loss impact

Number of non-zero balance addresses

New force

BTC trading platform trend net position

Illiquid supply and net position

Long term trader Hold supply and net position

Macro selling pressure

Market status rating: partial stock, still light

(real market value in the picture below)

The real market value is still in the repair stage, and the rate of loss is relatively slow, with slight signs of slowing down.

Combined with the stable currency circulation, explore the market status.

(circulation of stablecoins in the picture below)

Stablecoins are fundamental to purchasing power assessments.

There is still no obvious inflow of USDC, and the inflow of USDT is gradually decreasing.

The current market environment is still biased towards stock, which may increase the time for market recovery. Awaiting recovery of purchasing power.

Obviously, the purchasing power at this stage is biased towards stock.

(The ratio of realized profit to real market value in the figure below)

Measure the ratio of realized profit to real market value, and explore the release degree of staged profit;

If it is rising , which means that the profit is being digested, or the real market value is decreasing;

If it is falling, it means that the profit The profit effect decreases, or the real market value increases.

In particular, the recent profit effect has decreased, and the profitable chips have gradually decreased, resulting in a continuous decline in the value, and the current ratio is below 0.00001;

It may mean that the current selling pressure of profit taking has temporarily come to an end.

Look at the loss situation again.

(The impact of losses in the picture below)

Blue line: loss impact

Green line: loss Address percentage

On the whole, the release of loss shocks is gradually shrinking, and the actual situation of losses is a key factor in the current market as a whole.

Judging from the current situation, the loss-making market is still in the momentum of release, and it is usually necessary to wait for the loss-making market to calm down, and the market may be stabilized accordingly.

Obviously, the current test market is facing a situation where losses are stampede.

On-site growth rating: there are new users entering, and the performance of new forces is relatively weak

(number of non-zero balance addresses in the figure below)

The growth rate of the number of non-zero balance addresses has risen again, returning to above 0, which may mean that there are signs of new users entering the market recently.

Combined with the circulation of stablecoins, the recent growth in purchasing power is not strong, and this group of users may be inclined to slow deployment mentality.

(new force in the picture below)

Judging from the activity signs of the new forces, the phenomenon of low-level succession is more obvious.

During the merger of ETH2.0, the market diverged, and some new forces showed an attitude of "optimistic expectations".

Currently, they may have a certain amount of anxiety because of the failure of expectations.

Overall, the recent newcomers are more willing to take over at low positions, tend to enter the market slowly, and their current performance is relatively weak.

(BTC trading platform trend net position below)

From the recent situation, the potential selling pressure of BTC trading platform is shrinking sharply, and there is still a certain amount of BTC hovering inside the trading platform.

Medium and long-term group rating: risk aversion, overall accumulation

(Illiquid supply and net position in the figure below)


Non Liquidity supply is still biased towards slow growth.

(Long-term traders hold supply and net positions in the picture below)

Recently, long-term traders may be in a risk aversion mood, and some long-term traders threw out their chips and then quickly recovered.
It has returned to the state of increasing holdings.

(macro selling pressure in the picture below)



The macro selling pressure has not shown much in the near future, maybe the market has passed the time node of macro "exit", and now it is coming to a weaker macro selling pressure within the pressure range.
In the game in the stock environment, market participants may be more anxious.

Short term observation

BTC long liquidation advantage, long liquidation volume

ETH long liquidation advantage, long liquidation volume

BTC、ETH Changes in positions of derivatives

coin standard contract, U standard contract

Option put/call position ratio

Active address, new address

Profit and loss transfer amount

Realized loss

Coin days Destroyed amount

BTC trading platform balance

Global time zone purchasing power

off-chain data

Derivatives market rating: intense game

(BTC long liquidation advantage and long liquidation volume in the figure below)

The proportion of long liquidation advantage touches near 50% support After rebounding, the short position in the derivatives market is relatively strong.

Comprehensively, the long liquidation volume is lower than that on September 13, which means that the current bet on long funds has decreased.

At present, the proportion of liquidated long positions has increased slightly, and the game in the derivatives market is fierce.

(ETH long liquidation advantage and long liquidation volume in the figure below)

Ethereum long liquidation accounted for about 55% at present, liquidation long has entered the warning zone, we need to be vigilant about this, and it will fluctuate greatly in a short period of time .

Comprehensive long-term liquidation volume, Ethereum fluctuates violently, and there are still a large number of long positions liquidated, and the difficulty of short-term Ethereum derivatives is relatively high.

(BTC, ETH derivative position change rate in the figure below)

Yellow: ETH derivative position change rate

Red: BTC derivative position change rate

At present, the two are going through a relatively obvious stage of deleveraging, and both show signs of acceleration. At the moment, we need to pay attention to the risk of derivatives.

(coin standard contract, U standard contract in the picture below)

Before the recent decline, a large number of currency-standard contracts rose, and the U-standard contracts had a relatively low change.

The market has obvious signs of unilateral betting, so we need to be vigilant.

(Put/Call ratio of options in the figure below)

Green: put option positions

Red: call option positions

The proportion of put options has increased slightly recently, while the proportion of calls has not changed much. There are signs that mature traders will increase their put protection in the market outlook.

Spot Market

Emotional state: depression, suffering

(active address, new address in the picture below)

The newly added address is obvious The fall may indirectly bring about a decline in incremental funds.

The current market activity shows the same trend, and the market liquidity has entered a low state.

(Profit and loss transfer amount in the figure below)

Transfer amount: Tokens that are in a profit or loss state are moved, and the sale may not be completed.

The amount of profit transfer has dropped significantly at present, and the profitability of the overall market has continued to decline.

The amount of loss transfer still shows signs of rising.

(The loss has been realized in the picture below)

Red: realized losses

Realized loss: Tokens in a state of loss are transferred and sold at a loss.

The indicator showed a rise and then fell back, but the overall range is not large, which means that there has not been a huge loss in the recent market changes. Chip removal, which means that most of the chips are still in a state of suffering.

Selling Pressure Rating: Selling Pressure Falls

(coin daily destruction in the picture below)

At present, the movement of mature Tokens has gradually decreased. The selling pressure on the market shows signs of slowing down relatively.

(BTC trading platform balance below)

The balance of the trading platform has changed drastically before, which means that there are sharp differences. The current changes are stabilizing, and the "potential" pressure has been initially released and entered a wait-and-see state.

Purchasing Power Rating: Fix

(Purchasing power of global time zone in the picture below)

Recently, the purchasing power of the global time zone has changed slightly, and the overall purchasing power is still partial Low.

Off-chain data rating: slightly supported at 17600

(Binance trading platform order book below)

Binance has around $17,600 A touch of the buyer's pending order.

(Bitfinex trading platform order book below)

Bitfinex has a buy-side pending order around $17,600.

(Coinbase trading platform order book below)

Coinbase has more buyer pending orders below $17,600.

This week’s summary:

Message summary:

1. A number of data will be released in the United States this week, and the market predicts that the Fed will The Fed will continue to adopt aggressive and tougher policies to combat inflation. In the Beige Book released this week, the Federal Reserve confirmed that the US economy is slowing down, and inflationary pressures are expected to continue at least until the end of the year.

2. The dollar appreciated sharply due to the prospect of raising interest rates. The U.S. dollar will likely be the only hedge against risk for the rest of the year.

3. Affected by slowing economic growth and tightening monetary policy, Brent crude oil prices and gold prices this week Both fell again.

4. The major event this week is the successful merger of Ethereum, and Ethereum officially entered the PoS era. After the merger, the hash rate of other PoS-related tokens increased significantly, and the hash rate of Ethereum Classic increased by about 414% last week. For Ethereum, this will be an important milestone, but it is only the starting point, and the Ethereum team has entered the "Surge" development stage.

Long-term insights on the chain:

1. The participation ratio of long-term investors has reached a similar level in 2015 to 2019.

2. At present, the market structure is similar to that in 2015 in terms of losses.

3. The futures funding rate of ETH was before the merger of ETH, there was a huge amount of funds for short hedging Hedging risk.

Market setting tone:

Better long-term Fixed investment opportunities may be similar to 2015 in terms of market structure.

On-chain mid-term exploration:

1. The market value is still recovering, and the outflow is slowing down;

2. The circulation of stable coins shows that the purchasing power on the market is biased towards the stock;

3. The ratio of the profit order to the real market value has reached the relative area, it may be that the profit order has been exhausted at this stage, or there is no profit effect;

4. The impact of losses is shrinking slowly, and there is still a slight stampede of losses;

5. There are signs of new user growth, but the new force is relatively weak;

6. There is still potential selling pressure lingering within the trading platform;

7. Non-current Sex supply is still growing slowly;

8. Some long-term traders have recently sold out of risk aversion Chips, there are currently signs of recovery;

9. The macro selling pressure is low, and the main reason for the recent price drop is not macro Selling pressure is mainly a stock game.

The market sets the tone:

Anxiety, partial stock game.

The impact of losses has shrunk slowly, but new buyers have not shown strong performance. The key to stabilization may be the real loss stampede slow down.

On the other hand, the interest rate hike at 2 am on September 22, Beijing time is expected to be imminent, and there is currently a price range uncertainty.

On-chain short-term observation:

1. BTC derivatives game is fierce

2. ETH long liquidation accounted for close to the high 55%

3. Currently liquidation of derivatives positions continues

4. coin-based contracts are rising

5. The option put ratio has increased slightly

6. Active addresses are currently down slightly

7. Loss transfers have Signs of a slight increase

8. The burning amount of coin days slowed down slightly

9. The purchasing power of the global time zone is weak

10. Off-chain data is slightly supported at 17600

11. The probability of not breaking through 25000~30000 is 65%.

Market setting tone:

Liquidity is weak , endure the torment.

Risk Warning:

The above are market discussions and explorations, not directional opinions on investment; please treat and prevent market black swan risks carefully.