On-chain data analysis for the 39th week: There are differences among the giant whales, and the liquidation advantage of bulls fluctuates around 50%

Original title: "Waiting for the dawn by candlesticks | WTR 9.26"

Original source: WatchToweR Research Institute

Edition Weekly Review

This week from September 20th to September 25th, the highest BTC was around  19880 , the lowest was close to  18170 , and the shock range reached  8.83% about.

Observing the recent chip distribution chart, a large number of chips were traded around  18500  , and there will be certain support or pressure.

 Analysis:

1.  20500~21200  about 70   ;10,000

2.  26770~33000  about 85  10,000

   26770~33000  The probability is 64%.

Important news

In terms of encrypted ecological news

1. Nasdaq’s first large-scale foray into encryption Market, striving for institutional clients, first launching bitcoin and ethereum custody services, will also establish a new encryption department, and hire Lra Auerbach, head of brokerage business of cryptocurrency trading platform Gemi-n, to lead its digital asset department. There are no immediate plans to launch a cryptocurrency trading platform, but opportunities will be assessed.

2. According to Nationaltoday, September  20  has been designated as "International NFT Day".

3. Deputy Director of the Hong Kong Treasury Bureau: Support the steady development of financial technology such as securities Token issuance in Hong Kong

4. OpenSea pushes the SeaDrop function to support NFT on the platform Directly start and mint, and officially launch the NFT rarity open standard OpenRarity

5.  The US SEC indictment claims that all Ethereum is under its jurisdiction

6. V God: In DAO governance, the value of predictability, robustness and neutrality is higher than efficiency

7. EthereumPoW launches ETHW Bridge, a cross-chain bridge between ETHW and Ethereum

p>8. Data: The number of NFT assets issued on the Ethereum network has exceeded 100 million, and 136,000 NFT projects have been deployed to the Ethereum network, of which 6.73 million Ethereum wallet addresses hold NFT assets.

9. V God: Blockchains such as Dogecoin and Zcash should switch to the PoS mechanism

10. IApeCoin pledge system Ape Staking is tentatively scheduled for October 31 Launch

11. Solana's ecological NFT market Magic Eden announced the launch of ETH aggregator Magic Ethen, users can now use ETH, SOL or fiat currency to buy NFT.

Economic News

 United States

1. As housing mortgage rates climbed, U.S. home values in August fell the most since August 2011, and U.S. homebuilder confidence in September ( excluding the impact of the epidemic) was the lowest since May 2014.

2. Goldman Sachs has lowered its GDP forecast for the United States in 2023. It is expected that next year's growth and employment prospects will deteriorate. The probability of a US recession in the next 12 months increased to 35%. The bank said that the Fed will raise interest rates to 4-4.25% this year, and raise interest rates to a peak of 4.25-4.5% next year without cutting interest rates.

3.  Fed officials predict interest rates will rise to 4.4% by the end of this year and peak at 4.6% in 2023. In the meantime, the median forecast for the unemployment rate is set to rise to 4.4% as growth slows to 0.2% this year and holds steady at 1.2% next year. Core inflation, which strips out volatile items such as energy and food, is expected to fall to 3.1 percent in 2023 and 2.3 percent in 2024 from 4.5 percent at the end of this year. Through 2025, inflation is expected to be slightly above the Fed's 2% target.

4. The Federal Reserve announced the third consecutive interest rate hike of 0.75 percentage points, raising the federal funds rate to a new target range of 3% to 3.25%, and Hinting to keep borrowing costs high until next year. Forecasts point to further rate hikes by the Fed before the end of the year, and no rate cuts.

5. The two-year U.S. bond yield has risen for 12 consecutive days, which is a continuous sell-off that has never been seen since 196. Bond yields hit a ten-year high for five straight days this week.

 United Kingdom

1.  ; The UK unemployment rate hit a 48-year low, but the economic inactivity rate has reached a six-year high of 21.7% because more and more people have completely withdrawn from the labor market. According to the Office for National Statistics of the United Kingdom, the average weekly working hours of British people has not yet returned to the pre-epidemic level.

2. The Bank of England raised interest rates by 50 basis points as scheduled on Thursday, lowered the peak inflation expectations and economic growth, and announced that it will start from October 3 Actively sell UK government bonds and take the initiative to tighten quantitative tightening next month. It is expected that the UK inflation rate will exceed 10% in the next few months.

3. The UK plans to issue 193.9 billion pounds of national debt this fiscal year, 60 billion pounds more than the original plan, exceeding market expectations. The UK 5-year government bond yield jumped 50.7 basis points to 4.07%.

4. On Friday, the British government announced the largest tax cut plan in half the world. Economists believe that these measures will increase government debt and fuel high inflation. After the plan was announced, UK stocks and bonds fell.

5.  Under increasing pressure from the UK cost of living crisis caused by rapidly rising food prices, domestic fuel bills and mortgage payments, UK consumer confidence It fell to minus 49 in September, the lowest level since 19974.

6. Deutsche Bank pointed out that the pound has plummeted but has not yet bottomed out, and that the worst-case scenario is to restore the UK's trade deficit to the 10-year average. The lower trade-weighted pound would have to depreciate by another 15%. Market interest rate hike expectations have surged and the Bank of England is fully expected to raise interest rates by 100 basis points after the next November meeting.

 EU

1.  ; High energy prices threaten to drag Europe into a painful recession, and EU governments are taking steps to shore up energy supplies.

2. Economic Research Institute predicts that Germany's GDP will grow by only 1.6% this year, and will drop by 0.3% next year, while the average inflation rate will reach 8.1% this year. It will reach 99.3% next year, and will even rise to 11% in the first quarter. German consumer confidence is expected to be -36.5 in September, compared to -30.9 in August. The German economy will enter recession this winter.

3. The European Union's financial market regulator proposed on Friday that a temporary suspension of energy derivatives trading may help restore balance to the EU's energy market. The EU has pledged to help traders, including intervening directly in markets and injecting liquidity directly into companies that need it.

4. The Riksbank announced the biggest interest rate hike in 30 years on Tuesday, kicking off what central banks around the world are expected to do similarly. The Riksbank said it would raise interest rates by 0.5 percent in November and 0.25 percent in February next year, before possibly pausing thereafter.

5. The Swiss National Bank also decided to raise interest rates by 75 basis points on Thursday to 0.5%, a new high since December 2008. The SNB cut its growth forecast for this year to around 2 percent, according to its latest forecast. Inflation averages 3% in 2022, slowing to 2.4% next year and 1.7% in 2024.

6. Norges Bank announced an interest rate hike of 50 basis points and said it would raise interest rates again in November.

 Asia

1.  ; According to the latest data, foreign investors withdrew from stocks in emerging Asian markets excluding China for the fourth straight week, withdrawing a total of $423 million in the month ended Sept. 16.

2. The strength of the U.S. dollar led to a "big depreciation" of the Korean won. Within a week, 1 U.S. dollar was exchanged for 1,393.6 won, approaching 1,400 during the financial crisis in 1997 and 2008 key pass.

3. South Korea is currently caught in a vicious circle of interest rate hikes, rising trade deficits and depreciation of the Korean won.

a. As of July, South Korea has experienced a trade deficit for four consecutive months, and the deficit in August reached 9.47 billion US dollars, the largest deficit since 1956 highest level.

b. The cumulative trade deficit from January to August reached 24.7 billion U.S. dollars, surpassing the highest annual level set in 1996, with rising prices of energy and petroleum products accounting for 78% of the trade deficit.

c. The South Korean won has depreciated sharply. South Korea consumes its foreign exchange reserves to support the exchange rate of its currency, thus paying a huge price, and its foreign exchange reserves continue to shrink.

4. Japan intervened for the first time since the late 1990s on Thursday, with the yen/dollar exchange rate falling from 145.83 in a matter of minutes. The yen soared to 142.39 yen.

5. This week, the People's Bank of China announced the latest LPR quotation, 3.65% for 1-year period and 4.3% for 5-year period and above. changed, as expected.

6. This week, the offshore RMB against the US dollar once rose above 200 points, and once fell below 7.1.

Long-term insight: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state

Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are in, how long this stage will last, and what situation we will face

Short-term observation: used to analyze the short-term market situation; and the possibility of some direction and certain event occurring within a certain premise

Long term insight

 Loss Chip Distribution

 Short- and Long-Term Participant Chip Distribution

 High Quality Selling Pressure State

This week, we analyze the market and industry from the perspective of the structure of all chips on the chain.

(The distribution of  losing chips in the picture below)

The blue area is the towering loss chips before;

There were probably more than 4 million allocated before, and currently about 1 million less chips are locked in losses.

At the same time, the liberation has been perfectly completed between 24,500-26,000 US dollars, and there is almost no lock-in.

(The picture below Short- and long-term participant chip distribution)

< /p>

The yellow zone is between $18,500 and $17,000.

Long-term participants in this area are much more active in absorbing chips than before, and even higher than short-term participants at present.

(The picture below high-quality selling pressure state)

Looking at the state of high-quality selling pressure, it is at a historical low.

It is similar to the degree of selling pressure in mid-March 2020, early 2019, and 2015 in history.

Mid-term exploration        

 Basic activity on the chain

 Network sentiment positivity

 Short-term to long-term realized value

 New force

 Profit impact

 Loss impact

 Destroyed amount within 90 days

 BTC trading platform trend net position

p>

 ETH trading platform trend net position

 number of addresses above 1BTC

 accumulated trend points

 giant whale Net position of trading platform

 Net position of small player

Status rating on the floor: hesitant, weak liquidity

(Below Basic activity on the chain)

Currently there is a lack of basic activity in the field, and the activity has dropped to a low position.

(Picture below Positive network sentiment)

Currently, the enthusiasm of online sentiment is hovering at a low position, stalemate, and the current mood of traders may be hesitant.

(below  short-term to long-term realized value)

< /p>

Using the short-term to long-term realized value to test the liquidity in the market, it has recently shown a phenomenon from hovering to declining.

Liquidity represents the proportion of buying orders in the market, and there is currently a lack of new buying orders.

Low momentum likely to impact near-term prices.

A closer look at new buying orders.

(pictured below new force)

The recent performance of new forces has been relatively sluggish, and there is no strong new buyer capacity,

But judging from the weak signs of activity, low prices may relatively attract some new buyers.

Market selling pressure rating: the impact of profit and loss shrinks, the wait-and-see mood is heavy, BTC has a pressure measurement action

(below  profit impact)

Blue Line: Profit Impact

Green Line: Percentage of Profit Addresses

The profit impact at this stage is weak and has not been released further.

From the perspective of the number of profit addresses, traders at this stage choose to wait and see.

(The picture below loss impact)

Blue line: loss impact

Green line: percentage of loss addresses

The loss impact is shrinking, but the percentage of loss addresses is slowly increasing.

Currently, the percentage of loss-making addresses has reached the stage limit area.

(The figure below Destroyed amount within 90 days)

< /p>

The amount of coins burned within 90 days is shrinking and is already at a low level.

The selling pressure released by the high-age and high-volume currency holders has risen and lingered for nearly 10 months.

It has fallen to a lower position at present, and it may maintain a relatively calm mind at present, and there is no further release of selling pressure, so dynamic observation is required.

(The chart below BTC trading platform trend net position)

< /p>

At this stage, BTC has the potential to linger and rise, and the current accumulation effect is not very good.

( ETH trading platform trend net position below)

< /p>

At this stage, the net position of the ETH trading platform is partial to outflow, and it is currently showing a weak accumulation.

Group status rating of quantity distribution: high-quality addresses grow at a slower rate, giant whales diverge

High-quality addresses above 1BTC continue to grow slowly.

(The picture below accumulates trend points)

It can be seen from the data that the 1k-10k giant whale addresses show a strong accumulation effect, the current cumulative trend score has reached 0.8-1.

In-depth observation of the actions of giant whale groups.

(pictured below Giant Whale Trading Platform net position)

Giant whales above 1k are on the trading platform There is a certain accumulation of potential selling pressure.

At present, there may be differences among the giant whales, which not only show the accumulation situation, but also show the situation of "potential selling pressure" caused by flowing into the trading platform.

(Pictured below net position of small players)

< /p>

Small players below 1 BTC are still increasing their holdings.

Short-term observation

 BTC long liquidation advantage

  ETH long liquidation advantage

 change rate of derivatives positions

 coin-based contracts

 profit and loss transfer volume

  ;Short-term holding profit and loss selling ratio

 Global time zone purchasing power

 Off-chain data

Derivatives Market Rating: Repair

(Pictured below BTC long liquidation advantage)

Short-term bull liquidation advantage, the first time it fell below 50%, the downward test picked up again.

The comprehensive short liquidation volume has not increased significantly recently.

The market tends to continue to recover, and the overall liquidation volume of derivatives is low, among which the proportion of long liquidation is relatively low, resulting in a decline in indicators.

At present, there are signs of a downward test of 45%, and it is necessary to keep an eye on the fluctuations when it is close to the low threshold range.

(The picture below ETH long liquidation advantage)

Ethereum is showing similar signs, but the downward test of 45% is closer, and it should be noted that relatively large fluctuations may occur in the future.

(the figure below change rate of derivatives positions)

Red: BTC derivative position change rate

Yellow: ETH derivative position change rate

Derivative position change rate , the current degree of change has been fixed.

But the overall value is still negative, which means that the recent position has relatively declined.

The overall leverage risk is in the repair phase in the shorter term.

( coin-based contract in the picture below)

Coin-based contracts are still fluctuating at a high level. It is worth noting that there are still some derivatives groups betting on unilateral positions and waiting.

It is necessary to keep track of this indicator.

Spot Market

Emotional State Rating: Adjustment

(  profit and loss transfer amount in the picture below)

Tokens that are profitable and Tokens that are losing money in the market have recently moved less frequently.

The emotional state of the market has entered an adjustment stage, and the loss sentiment that needs to be paid attention to has dropped significantly in the short term.

(The picture below Short-term holding profit and loss ratio)

Specifically, from the profit and loss selling situation of short-term holders, with 1 as the boundary, short-term group selling is the resistance position in the market;

Part of the reason is that the short-term group returns to the cost price and chooses to sell, which leads to greater pressure on the market.

At this stage, the indicator shows a slight upward trend, which means that the short-term profit-making group has a slight upward trend, and it is also a manifestation of recovery from an emotional point of view.

Purchasing Power Rating: Asian Power Undertake

（ The picture below Global time zone purchasing power)

The purchasing power of European and American time zones is currently stagnant, and the purchasing power of Asian time zones is still The main support force of the market.

Off-chain data rating: around $18,100 has purchasing power

(Picture below Binance trading platform order book)

Binance has a touch of buy-side pending orders around $17,880.

(Bitfinex trading platform order book below)

< img src="https://image.blockbeats.cn/upload/2022-09-27/91c8d87e61154d5c93d4aa948fa9bae8379c95f0.png?x-oss-process=image/quality,q_50/format,webp" alt="Candle is waiting for Dan, now Bitfinex｜WTR 9.26" width="1462" height="635">

The distribution of Bitfinex pending orders is relatively loose

(Coinbase trading platform order book in the picture below)

Coinbase has more buyer orders below $18,100.

This week's summary:

Message summary:

  Various signs in the market in the past week indicate that various countries will experience different degrees of economic recession, and inflation may take longer than expected.

 Currently, liquidity from stocks to bonds is so thin that investors prefer to hold cash.

 Nasdaq's first entry into the encryption market indicates that traditional financial giants attach great importance to the cryptocurrency market and potentially large-scale demand.

Long-term insights on the chain:

1. The loss chips have been digested to 75%.

2. Long-term participants are much more aggressive in taking chips between $18,500 and $17,000 than before.

3. The state of high-quality selling pressure is similar to the selling pressure in mid-March 2020, early 2019, and 2015 in history.

 The market sets the tone:

Nearly half of the chip structure has been digested;

The market structure is slowly changing.

Mid-term exploration on the chain:

1. The basic activity on the chain is low, The trading sentiment on the floor is relatively hesitant;

2. The liquidity on the floor is weak, and the recent performance of new forces has been sluggish;

3.The impact of profits and losses is shrinking. More wait-and-see, the percentage of loss-making addresses has touched a stagedly higher area;

4. The selling pressure released by the high age and high currency volume within 90 days has dropped to a low position;

p>5. BTC still has a pressure measurement action, on the contrary, ETH has a weak accumulation effect;

6. The number of addresses above 1BTC has a slower growth rate;

7 . Giant whales have differences, and small players are still accumulating;

 The market sets the tone:

Hovering, testing

There is no sustained large selling pressure, but the liquidity is weak, and BTC has a pressure measurement action, and ETH has a weak accumulation effect . At the same time, disagreements emerged within the giant whale.

Short-term observations on the chain:

1.  The advantage of long liquidation is oscillating around 50% .

2. The change rate of derivatives positions is currently low.

3. Coin-based contracts are still at a high level.

4. The amount of profit and loss transfer continues to decline.

5. The short-term holders' profit-to-loss sell-to-sell ratio has stagnated.

6. The Asian time zone is the main purchasing power.

7.  Off-chain data has purchasing power around $18,100.

8.  Rise does not break through 26770~33000  The probability is  64%.

 Market setting:

Repair , Adjustment

Risk warning: 

The above are all market discussions and explorations, and are of great importance to investment There are no directional opinions; please be cautious and prevent market black swan risks.

This article is from a contribution and does not represent the views of BlockBeats    

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