On-chain data analysis for the 32nd week: The market restructuring has initially ended, and a repair period may be ushered in

Original title: "Unshakable, withered trees come in spring｜WTR 8.8"

Original source: WatchToweR Research Institute

"Our The purpose is to help market participants to dissect the market more comprehensively with higher skills and more professional data analysis, so that participants can rely on their own judgment to make more rational decisions.”

Book Weekly review

From August 1st to August 7th this week, the highest BTC was around 23600, the lowest was close to 22400, and the volatility reached about 5.19%.

Observing the recent chip distribution chart, there are a large number of chips trading around 22600, which will have certain support or pressure.

Analysis:

1.  19200-23300   About 2.61 million pieces

2. 28800-33600   About 98 10,000 pieces

The probability of not falling below 19200 is about 73% , because more than half of the loss-making stocks below 28000 have been absorbed, so the analysis structure of chips has moved up.

(picture below seven-day chip change chart)

Within 7 days, about 440,000 chips were accepted around 22,600 US dollars, and participants with a chip size > 100k at this price concentrated on this price ( For details, please refer to the mid-term exploration section).

This price is most likely to be the main psychological expectation price in the current market.

At 23,300 US dollars and 24,000 US dollars, about 156,000 chips and 27,000 chips were reduced, and the destocking of loss chips is still ongoing.

However, it is worth noting that the reduction in loss-making chips above US$28,800 has slowed down slightly compared to the previous period.

Important news

1. On August 2nd, according to Xuhui, Shanghai The district government's official document notice has recently released "Several Opinions of Xuhui District on Supporting the Development of the Metaverse (Draft for Comment)"

Now openly solicits citizens and relevant The deadline for soliciting opinions is 2022 August 20 .

1. 8 August 2 Bitcoin Magazine  stated on social media that 21 million  ;91% have now been mined, and in the next  118 years, only  9% remaining bitcoins can be mined.

1. On August 2, Gucci has re-released "Ape Coin Payment Acceptance"

1. On  8 Month 3 , Slow Mist monitoring shows that there are more than  8000  so far  Solana Wallet was stolen, about 580 million US dollars flowed to the following 4  addresses:

Address 1: Htp9MGP8Tig923ZFY7Qf2zzbMUmYneFRAhSp7vSg4wxV

Address 2: CEzN7mqP9xoxn2HdyW6fjEJ73t7qaX9Rp2zyS6hb3iEu

Address 3: 5WwBYgQG6BdErM2nNNyUmQXfcUnB68b6kesxBywh1J3n

Address 4: GeEccGJ9BEzVbVor1nj kBCCiqXJbXVeDHaXDCrBDbmuy

1.  On August 3 , according to South Korea's "Business Herald", following the US SEC , South Korean financial regulators are also actively taking measures to regulate the securities attributes of virtual assets.

1. 8 On March 3 , according to Reuters, the EU securities regulator, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) has Start preparing for heightened scrutiny of crypto transactions.

A public tender document shows that ESMA  is inviting public tenders for data providers for encrypted transactions (including spot transactions and derivatives).

1. 8 August 4 , according to the report of British "Financial Times". The board of directors approved to invest in the DeFi agreement;

2. 8 Month 5 Day. Uniswap's new proposal intends to establish the Uniswap Foundation (UF), and Seeking $74 million in funding 

3. August August 4 , Coinbase U.S. The company formed a partnership with BlackRock.

4.  Morgan Stanley is hiring an encryption product development manager whose team supports over $900 billion in assets.

5. Messari: In the first half of 2022 in the encryption industry, there will be nearly 1,200 financing transactions, with a total amount exceeding US$30 billion

On June 6. 8  5 , according to reports from  CoinDesk ,  Alexander Vinnik , the operator of the trading platform related to the theft of Mentougou, has been extradited from Greece to the United States.< /p>

Economic News

1. 8 June 5 , USA  ;7 July unemployment rate 3.5%, expected 3.60%, previous value 3.60%.

The U.S.  7  seasonally adjusted non-agricultural employment population 52.8  million, expected 25  million, previous value 37.2  Ten thousand people.

The total number of non-agricultural employment and the unemployment rate have both returned to the level of  2020  2 March (before the epidemic). (Golden Ten)

1. 8 On March 3 , Federal Reserve Evans said that if inflation does not improve, interest rates will be raised 50  Basis points are a reasonable estimate for the  September meeting. A rate hike of  75  basis points is also possible;

I doubt the need for a  100  basis point hike. Still hoping that we can raise rates by  50  in September  by  50  in September and then continue at a pace of  25  hikes until early Q2 of 2023 

It is believed that before the second quarter of  2023 , the interest rate will reach  3.75%-4%  which is high enough. (Golden Ten data)

1. 8 On August 5 , the Federal Reserve Mester stated that once the inflation rate falls back to the target of  2%  , the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, "We think interest rates should be slightly higher than 4%.

2. 8 June 7  Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said the Fed should continue to consider aggressive rate hikes similar to the  75  basis points it approved last month until inflation falls significantly, Bloomberg reported.

3. 8 June 7 , local time  8 June 6 , the U.S. Senate voted for  51 50  against Advancing a bill called "the Inflation Reduction Act" proposed by the Democratic Party.

4. Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers: July CPI data may show that inflation has fallen, but the Fed should still take substantial interest rate hikes to curb inflation

Long-term insight: for observation Our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state

Medium-term exploration: is used to analyze what stage we are currently in, How long will this stage last and what will happen

Short-term observation: is used to analyze short-term market conditions; The possibility of a certain event under a certain premise

Long-term insight

  Compared with

 1-2 years of investor status

 high-quality multiple selling pressure status

 ETH new address

  p>

 The proportion of NFT and DeFi in ETH transactions

(the proportion of large groups in the figure below)

From the current point of view, the accumulation of the market is still continuing, Currently breaking a four-year high.

Among them, the proportion of this large group in the market is getting higher and higher. As for when the rising deflation effect of the market will be triggered, we need to observe and look forward to it.

(The investor status in the following picture 1-2 years)

In 1-2 years, investors have shown a strange state in history, and they have increased a lot of holdings every time the history bottoms out .

When the market improves to a certain extent, it will start to reduce its holdings. Investors in 2-7 years will be the main person to reduce their holdings, and the chips will be exchanged later into the hands of short-term speculators.

At this stage, there has been a little increase in holdings.

(The picture below the state of multiple pressure selling of quality)

This model is used to look at the state of high age and high amount of coins on the chain that have been destroyed multiple times.

Here it is called a high-quality multiple selling pressure state. From the historical red line, it can be seen that it probably belongs to the mid-term bottom area.

Especially below the green line; at this stage, the current high-quality selling pressure is reduced.

( ETH new address in the picture below)

The new addresses of Ethereum have a slight upward trend.

This is also one of the few better moments in history than the addition of Bitcoin.

(The figure below shows the proportion of NFT and DeFi in ETH transactions)

The proportion of NFT transactions on the ETH chain has dropped from the previous high point of 37% to the current 14%; A year-on-year decrease of 62%.

Among them, DeFi has dropped from 16.29% of the previous high point transactions to the current 5.7%; a year-on-year decrease of 64%.

Compared to the previous DeFi and NFT, it is slightly sluggish, and it is not the current main engine factor of ETH.

Mid-term exploration     

  Long-term and short-term chip distribution

 Chip distribution divided by holding quantity

 Long-term and short-term traders untouched supply and speculative sentiment

  ;New force

 Number of addresses above 1BTC

 Number of addresses above 10ETH

 Number of non-zero balance addresses

 Trading Volume

 Activity

 Monthly Net Position of BTC Trading Platform

 Monthly Net Position of Stablecoin Trading Platform< /p>

 Net position of giant whale trading platform

 Illiquid supply

 Net position of unmoved supply of miners

  ;

Chip Distribution Rating: There are more short-term chips, and a large number of players are concentrated.

(below long-term and short-term chip distribution)

There are more between 22000-23300 The number of short-term chips currently held exceeds 600,000 BTC, and the number of short-term chips is close to 550,000. It may be new forces or speculative funds.

(The chart below The distribution of chips divided by the number of holdings)

Combined with the long-term and short-term chip distribution charts, the current results are:

1.  Participants with a volume > 100k are concentrated at this price.

2. It may reflect the increase in holdings on the right side of some of the main funds, or the plan to deploy slowly.

3. But because part of the 550,000 pieces are short-term chips, there is a certain degree of uncertainty.

Time dimension rating: The overall increase is a small amount, but the new force is weak.

(The picture below Long and short-term traders have not moved supply and speculative sentiment)

Long and short term Traders all showed small increases and speculative sentiment was weak.

(pictured below new force)

Growth Status Rating: Slowing, Hesitant

(The number of addresses above 1 BTC in the picture below)

(The number of addresses above  10ETH in the figure below)

Using the number of addresses above 1BTC and 10ETH to measure the growth of high-quality users, the overall slowdown has not shown a strong trend.

(Number of addresses with non-zero balance in the figure below)

The number of non-zero balance addresses represents the views of the overall users in the market. It has shown growth recently, but the whole is still hesitating.

Volatility rating: active and hovering, long-term chip selling pressure is showing a decreasing trend

(Trading volume in the picture below)

The current trading volume shows a small growth rate, and the overall environment is in a small-scale environment. In an environment with low transaction frequency, it is very easy for large-order transactions to cause fluctuations. The current situation is prone to volatility.

(  vitality in the picture below)

Used to measure the ratio of the sum of coin-days destroyed to the sum of all coin-days created.

If there is a sharp rise, it means that there are older chips on sale, and if there is a decline, it means that the older chips in the market are more patient.

From the perspective of the trend, it has been in the process of declining at present, and the probability of extreme market conditions triggered by older traders is reduced.

Trend net position rating: Potential selling pressure is small, purchasing power has not formed a trend

(The chart below BTC trading platform trend net position)

There is still a small amount of potential selling pressure inside the trading platform, but it is still a partial accumulation trend.

(the picture below stable coin transaction Platform trend net position)

USDC has not formed a trend of flowing into the trading platform and converting it into purchasing power, and USDT is in a state of weakly flowing out of the trading platform.

Overall In terms of purchasing power, the purchasing power has not formed a large growth, which has led to the anxiety of the internal stock game.

(the net position of the giant whale trading platform in the picture below)

p align="center">

The giant whale deposits coins on the trading platform Slowly, it is currently declining slowly.

Ratings of changes in various groups: large groups increase their holdings by a small amount, and miners increase their holdings slowly

(below non-liquid supply)

The illiquid supply group is still growing, but to a lesser extent.

(Untouched supply net position of miners in the picture below)

The untouched supply net position of miners shows that the increase in holdings is still slowing down.

Short-term observation

  Long liquidation advantage, funding rate, total futures contract liquidation volume

 Put/call option total open interest, option trading volume

 Contract potential liquidation chart

 Total supply of long-term holders, Total supply of short-term holders, net position of miners

 net position of BTC trading platform

 active addresses, new addresses, total transaction amount

 Profit Transfer Amount, Loss Transfer Amount, Active Address

 Profit Selling, Loss Selling

 Global Time Zone Purchasing Power

  Stablecoin Trading Platform Balance

 Stablecoin Net Position

 Off-chain Data

Derivative Product rating: disk bias adjustment

(below   long liquidation advantage, funding rate, total futures contract liquidation volume)< /p>

Blue: funding fee Rate

Red: Long liquidation advantage

Orange: Total liquidation volume of futures contracts

Long liquidation advantage is 46% There are two possibilities:

1, the ratio of liquidated long positions to total liquidated volume is low

2, the total liquidation volume is low, the proportion of long and short liquidation volume is relatively low, and the proportion of long positions is even smaller.

The total liquidation volume of comprehensive futures contracts is currently declining, and the indicators are biased towards the second situation. The overall market tends to consolidate, and the sentiment of derivatives trading is low.

But the current funding rate is slightly upward, which means that the current market has a slight increase in long funds.

At present, it is necessary to keep track of the indicator of long liquidation advantage.

(the figure below the total amount of put/call option positions and option trading volume)

Blue: put/call option open interest ratio

Green: option trading volume

The proportion of put/call option positions is currently on the rise,

Comprehensive options The trading volume has increased, mainly due to the continuous increase in the volume of put options in the near future, which means that during the period of recent consolidation, mature groups have further increased their bearish protection for the market outlook.

(The picture below potential liquidation of the contract)

< img src="https://image.blockbeats.cn/upload/2022-08-10/77904213124f3009d81c677c528c80a76a2c4a94.png?x-oss-process=image/quality,q_50/format,webp" alt="Unbreakable, Dead trees come spring｜WTR 8.8" width="1295" height="583">

Blue: some long funds

Red: some short Funds

Around the current price, there is a slightly concentrated short force. It is necessary to be alert to the derivatives risk in the short-term market, and the bulls are more inclined to trade with low leverage.

If the current price is approaching, and the participants who have liquidated their positions at intensive related points need to pay attention to the risks.

Spot Market:

Group Change: Accumulation

(picture below total supply of long-term holders, total supply of short-term holders, net position of miners)

Blue: short-term Holders

Green: Long-term holders

Red: Miner balance wallet

Long-term holders and Short-term holders are still in a state of accumulation.

The miners have a significant accumulation state in the near future. Compared with the previous one, the attitude of panic reduction has changed significantly, and the current accumulation rate has slowed down.

On the whole, the main groups in the short term show a state of accumulation.

(Picture below  BTC trading platform net position)

BTC trading platform net position outflow narrowed, comprehensive trading platform balance continued Decline, the short-term market as a whole tends to accumulate, and the "potential" selling pressure on the market is relatively small.

Green: New address

Orange: Active address

Blue: Transaction volume

< /p>

Currently active addresses and newly added addresses show a similar oscillating trend, indicating that newly added addresses are active recently, but the active state has slowed down, and the driving force for the market has weakened.

The total volume of comprehensive transactions remains volatile at a certain level, which means that market investors tend to wait and see in the near future.

(The figure below  profit transfer amount, loss transfer amount, active address)

Purple: Profit Transfer

Yellow: Loss Transfer

Orange: Active address

The growth of the active market is slowing down, the amount of profit transfer and loss transfer are currently oscillating in a certain space, showing a similar trend.

This means that the market direction is not clear, and it is in a state of consolidation, waiting for a direction decision.

(Picture below sell at profit, sell at loss)

Green: Sell at profit

Red : Selling at a loss

Selling at a profit and selling at a loss have both declined slightly, which once again confirms that investors are more inclined to wait and see.

Purchasing Power Rating: Slowing Growth

(Purchasing power of global time zones in the picture below)

Currently, the growth of purchasing power in the American time zone has begun to slow down,

The purchasing power in the European time zone is still showing a slow upward trend,

The current decline in purchasing power in the Asian time zone is slowing down,

p>Slowing growth in overall market purchasing power.

(Pictured below   balance of the stablecoin trading platform)

The balance of the USDT trading platform is now slowly declining, and the stock funds are decreasing.

The balance of the USDC trading platform is currently slightly Rising, but the range is small, and the willingness to fund is not obvious.

( stable currency net position in the picture below)

The current inflow trend of USDT is gradually decreasing,

The current outflow of USDC is gradually narrowing,

At present, the willingness to increase funds has begun to slow down.

Off-chain data rating: about 21,500 USD has purchasing power

(Picture below Binance trading platform order book)

Binance has a touch of buyer orders around $21,500 and a touch of sell orders around $24,800.

(Bitfinex trading platform order book below)

< img src="https://image.blockbeats.cn/upload/2022-08-10/69c32d341aacdff770890595f1497bc35bedc012.png?x-oss-process=image/quality,q_50/format,webp" alt="Unbreakable, Dead wood comes in spring｜WTR 8.8" width="1458" height="637">

Bitfinex has a touch of buyer pending orders around $20,000 and a touch of sellers around $24,800 pending order.

(Coinbase trading platform order book in the picture below)

< img src="https://image.blockbeats.cn/upload/2022-08-10/212ba7d93b3ddbac43628375752be0c85445a079.png?x-oss-process=image/quality,q_50/format,webp" alt="Unbreakable, Spring comes with a dead tree｜WTR 8.8" width="1458" height="643">

Coinbase buy and sell orders are relatively scattered.

This week's summary:

Long-term insights on the chain:

1.  The proportion of huge group holdings broke a four-year high.

2. 1-2 years Historically, investors often accumulate a large amount of holdings at the bottom and then retreat when they rise.

3. The current high-quality selling pressure is almost exhausted.

4. At present, it is one of the few moments when ETH has more new power than BTC in the address.

5.  The share of NFT and DeFi transactions has dropped by more than 60% year-on-year, and has fallen into a downturn.

Market setting tone:

Market from broken Until the reorganization, the reorganization is initially completed, and the repair will be ushered in, so we need to wait.

Mid-term exploration on the chain:

1. From the perspective of chip distribution, there is a large amount Participants are increasing their holdings on the right side of the current price, and most of them are short-term bargaining chips at present;

2. There is a lack of new forces, but the overall untouched supply in the market has increased;

3.  ;The growth of high-quality addresses is slowing down, and the overall users in the market tend to be optimistic, with a small increase.

4. The current transaction volume is small, and large orders are completed, causing fluctuations.

5. The net position of the BTC trading platform tends to be buying and outflowing, and there is currently less potential selling pressure.

6. Stablecoins have not formed a clear trend in purchasing power.

7. Illiquid supply is still increasing holdings on the right, and the range is narrowing; giant whales slow down the potential selling pressure formed inside the trading platform; miners' holdings slowing down.

Market setting:

Buffering;< /p>

At the current price, there are a large number of players increasing their holdings on the right, but there is no buying trend of new forces following closely behind, and the current tendency is to slow down.

Short-term observations on the chain:

1.  Within 7 days, the chips are at 22600 US dollars to undertake about 440,000.

2. The liquidation advantage of bulls is hovering around 46%.

3. The open interest of put options increased, and the put protection increased.

4.  Long-term and short-term holders and miners are in a state of accumulation.

5. The outflow of net positions on BTC trading platforms has narrowed, which is partial to accumulation.

6. The amount of profit and loss transfer fluctuates in a certain space, and it is partial to consolidation.

7. Global time zone purchasing power and stable currency capital growth slowed down.

8. Off-chain data has purchasing power at around 21,500 US dollars

9. The probability of falling below 19,200 is about 73%

The market sets the tone:

The market tends to consolidate and repair, wait for the tipping point, and decide the direction .

Risk warning:

The above are market discussions and explorations, and have no direction for investment Sexual opinions; please be cautious about and prevent market black swan risks.

This article is from a contribution and does not represent the views of BlockBeats.   

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