Right-wing consolidation stymied, smart money in the Middle East predicts Netanyahu will step down by year-end.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, traboukos placed $2.6k on "Will Netanyahu step down before the end of 2026?" betting "Yes," with an average entry probability of 52.0%; the current "Yes" probability is 53.5%.

traboukos placed $2.6k, and the best-correlated sector for this market is the Middle East, where the sector net profit is $8.9k. Across 11 settled trades in this sector, the win rate is 9/11 (82%), including 2 trades with an entry price below $0.8 and an exit price above $0.95. Within a similar cost-price range ($0.551-$0.6), the median historical amount invested by this account is $1.1k.

The account previously profited about $4.8k and $2.4k from U.S.-Iran ceasefire and permanent peace agreement deadline trades, respectively, and habitually trades multiple deadlines around the same event. It currently predicts that Netanyahu will step down before the end of the year and holds about $1.8k worth of "Bennett will not become the next prime minister."

Israel will hold its general election on October 27. Netanyahu is pushing for the merger of small right-wing parties to reduce vote loss. National Security Minister Ben-Gvir has refused to run jointly with the Religious Zionist Party, and right-wing newcomer Ofir Winter also insists on running separately. The Knesset electoral threshold is 3.25%, and some small parties face the risk of failing to enter the Knesset, potentially weakening the total number of seats in Netanyahu's camp.

The Jerusalem Post reported on the 11th that Likud is projected to win 19 seats, the lowest level for that survey since May 2025. Including the party led by Winter, Netanyahu's camp rises to 50 seats, still short of the 61 seats needed for a parliamentary majority; the Zionist opposition camp wins 58 seats, and Arab parties win 12 seats. In the prime ministerial suitability survey, Eisenkot received 50% support, while Netanyahu received 38%. The survey was conducted from September 9 to 10, with 601 participants and a maximum sampling error of 4 percentage points. Whether the prime ministerial transition can be completed before the end of the year still depends on the election results and subsequent coalition formation.