Three giants simultaneously call for a slowdown, yet smart money predicts Anthropic will complete its IPO before November.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, betwick placed $28.6k on "Will Anthropic complete an IPO before November?" at "Yes," with an average entry probability of 71.8%, while the current "Yes" probability is 62.5%.

betwick invested $28.6k, and the best-related category for this market is Finance, where the category net profit is $50.9k. Its win rate in this category across 11 settled trades is 9/11 (82%), including 5 trades with an entry price below $0.8 and an exit price above $0.95. Within the similar cost basis range ($0.751-$0.8), its historical median investment amount is $25.0k.

The account previously profited about $31.5k through the December 2025 Federal Reserve interest rate decision contract, and accumulated about $13.6k in profit from the no-rate-cut-in-2026 market. Currently, its Anthropic IPO portfolio is worth about $25.0k, with an unrealized loss of about $5.6k, mainly concentrated in positions for a listing before the end of October; it also holds a position worth about $4.8k on "OpenAI announces achieving artificial general intelligence within the year."

Amodei, Altman, and Musk concentrated their support for deceleration over the same weekend, and the commercial motives behind this immediately came under scrutiny. On the 13th, researcher Eli David argued that slowing model training can reduce costs and help companies demonstrate a path to profitability before going public; U.S. technology adviser David Sacks questioned whether companies might use safety requirements to seek regulatory arrangements favorable to themselves. Business Insider investor Chamath Palihapitiya's view stated that employee warnings about existential AI risks would create liability determination and information disclosure challenges for Anthropic's IPO. Trump responded on the 13th that the United States must maintain its AI lead over China and criticized some risk warnings as exaggerated.

Business Insider reported on the 13th that Anthropic has selected Nasdaq and still aims for an October listing, with valuation not yet determined. The Financial Times reported the same day that the company has told some shareholders that adjusted operating profit for this quarter is expected to be positive for a second consecutive quarter, a metric that excludes expenses such as stock-based compensation.