TL;DR
· Nomura forecasts a CAGR of about 10% for MLCC Release Film demand from 2025 to 2028, with Lintec receiving a Buy rating.
· AI servers require more high-end multilayer MLCCs, with Release Film playing a crucial role in slurry coating, printing, and lamination processes.
· Japanese manufacturers hold over 80% of the market share, but price pressures and expansion constraints are expected to limit performance flexibility by 2026.

On July 2, Nomura Securities research report traced the AI server demand back to a more upstream Japanese material segment: MLCC Release Film. The institution projects a compound annual growth rate of about 10% for this material from 2025 to 2028 and has given Lintec a "Buy" rating with a target price of 7850 yen.

MLCCs are chip multilayer ceramic capacitors widely used in electronic systems such as servers, power supplies, and motherboards. With the increase in AI server computing power and energy consumption, there is a need for more high-capacity, high-reliability multilayer MLCCs. As the layer count increases, the Release Film used in the production process necessitates higher levels of smoothness, cleanliness, and stability.

The key players in this chain are primarily Japanese material companies. According to Nomura's estimates, Japanese manufacturers hold over 80% of the global MLCC Release Film market share, with Lintec at around 37% and Toyobo at about 32%. Lintec is more focused on high-end coating requirements, Toyobo is expanding its production capacity, and Toray is positioned more upstream in the base film segment.

AI Servers Drive Demand to Release Film

Release Film is not the final component of MLCCs, but it is involved in critical steps of MLCC manufacturing.

During MLCC production, manufacturers need to first coat the dielectric slurry on the Release Film, followed by internal electrode printing and lamination after drying. The process presented in the Toray IR material also shows steps such as "Slurry Casting," "Inner electrode printing," "Release film," and "Base PET film." If the surface of the Release Film is not smooth enough, it may impact electrode printing precision and interlayer stability.

The change brought by AI servers is the simultaneous increase in the usage and specifications of high-end MLCCs. TrendForce also mentioned on June 17 that AI ASICs and accelerator platforms are driving the concentrated demand for high-end MLCCs, with significant increases in the usage of certain specifications. This indirectly supports the projection of a CAGR of about 10% for Release Film demand, although it can affirm the direction of demand for "AI servers driving high-end MLCCs."

Schematic Diagram of MLCC Production Process, showing the role of the release film from dielectric paste coating to internal electrode printing and stacking.

The key figure provided by Nomura is a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10% for MLCC release film demand from 2025 to 2028. For a mature material segment, this growth rate is not low, especially in the context of consumer electronics not experiencing overall high growth, with AI servers becoming the main incremental source.

However, demand growth does not equate to overall company performance resilience. According to the report, MLCC release film-related business accounts for approximately 7% of Lintec's revenue and around 17% of operating profit; approximately 6% of Toyobo's revenue and around 13% of operating profit; and approximately 1% of Toray's revenue and around 3% of operating profit. This indicates that this business segment has a relatively high profit margin but is not the sole determinant of a large material company's revenue.

Sales Weight, Operating Profit Weight, and Profit Margin of each company's MLCC release film business: Lintec at 7%/17%/18%, Toyobo at 6%/13%/16%, Toray at 1%/3%/15%.

Lintec and Toyobo Account for Nearly 70% Market Share

The MLCC release film market has a relatively high concentration.

Based on the end-product caliber post-coating, Lintec has a market share of about 37%, Toyobo around 32%, Mitsui Chemicals around 12%, and other manufacturers approximately 19%. Lintec and Toyobo together hold close to a 70% share in the market.

Lintec's advantage lies mainly in high-end coating capability. It procures the base film externally, then processes the release coating and delivers it to MLCC customers. In high-end applications such as AI servers, Lintec is more likely to directly benefit from the demand surge for multilayer MLCCs.

Toyobo's differentiation lies in having both base film and coating capabilities. Public company information indicates that its Ashigara release film new equipment has been completed and started operation, with commercial production scheduled to commence in spring 2025 and reach full capacity by the end of FY3/26. Nomura's report, however, considers the third quarter of 2026 as the full production milestone. If capacity is released as planned, Toyobo has the opportunity to capture more high-end demand post-2027.

Toray is positioned more upstream. It holds over 50% market share in the MLCC Release Film Base Film external sales market. Public IR information indicates that Toray's new Gifu production line is scheduled to start operating in February 2026; based on Nomura's report, even after the relevant capacity is increased to 1.6 times the original level, there is still room for sales growth.

MLCC Release Film Market Share: Lintec 37%, Toyobo 32%, Mitsui Chemicals 12%, Other 19%.

This also determines that the material increment brought by AI servers will not be evenly distributed. Lintec is more like a direct beneficiary of high-end demand, Toyobo is more of a market share challenger after capacity expansion, and Toray benefits from the growth in external sales of base film.

Behind the ¥7850 Target Price, Lintec Also Faces Capacity Pressure

In specific targets, Nomura's stance on Lintec is the most clear, with a "Buy" rating and a target price of ¥7850. The report uses a stock price of ¥7110 as of July 1, with an expected P/E ratio of 17.8 in 2026.

In the same valuation table, Toyobo is rated as "Neutral" with a target price of ¥1800; Toray is rated as "Neutral" with a target price of ¥1170; one of the leading MLCC downstream players, Murata Manufacturing, is also rated as "Buy" with a target price of ¥6000. These target prices and valuation criteria are all from Nomura research reports and do not represent the consensus market expectations.

MLCC Related Companies Valuation Comparison Table, including ratings, target prices, current stock prices, and valuations for 2026-2028 for Lintec, Toyobo, Toray, Murata Manufacturing, etc.

Lintec's weakness also lies in its capacity. Nomura points out that if the company does not promptly advance new capacity expansions, it may reach full capacity by 2027. When the demand for AI servers continues to surge, if supply cannot keep up with orders, some market share may flow to competitors like Toyobo.

Toyobo's opportunity is coming from here. After capacity expansion, if industry demand maintains an annual growth rate of about 10%, the additional capacity can translate into a market share increase; but if demand falls short of expectations, the additional supply will also increase price and capacity utilization pressure.

Toray's base film capacity expansion seems more like an upstream bottleneck relief. Due to the high smoothness requirement of the release film for MLCCs on the surface of the base film, the increase in base film supply capacity helps support coating manufacturers in expanding shipments. However, Toray's related business contributes a small portion to the group's revenue and profit, making it more difficult to individually change the overall valuation.

Quantity is Growing, but Prices May Not Rise All the Way

This is not a simple "rising demand, rising prices, rising stock price" story. The key lies in prices and the pace of capacity expansion.

Nomura believes that there is a downside risk to the selling price of MLCC release film in 2026. With Toyobo's new capacity coming online and Toray's base film capacity expansion, industry supply will increase, and prices may not necessarily rise in sync with demand. The report also suggests that overall capacity expansion remains relatively moderate, and capacity utilization is not expected to decrease significantly. The probability of a significant price drop is low, and material manufacturers will continue to benefit mainly from increased shipments.

This assessment relies on two key assumptions: that demand for multilayer MLCCs for AI servers continues to materialize and that the additional capacity does not significantly outpace high-end demand growth. If end-user capital expenditure slows down, or MLCC manufacturers undergo inventory adjustments, the growth rate in demand for release film may be lower than the approximately 10% in Nomura's model.

The more realistic differences lie in company execution. If Lintec's capacity expansion lags, it may miss out on some high-end orders; if Toyobo's expanded capacity fails to attract sufficient demand, it may face price and utilization pressure; although Toray has a high share of base films, its related business accounts for a limited proportion of the group.

Indeed, AI servers have brought this small material segment of MLCC release film to the market forefront, but performance realization still depends on whether high-end MLCC orders can continue to increase, and whether Japanese manufacturers' capacity expansion closely follows suit, rather than prematurely creating new supply pressures.

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