TL;DR
· Multicoin has set HYPE's 2028 baseline valuation at $319, more than 4 times higher than the approximately $63 at the time of the report's release.
· This calculation relies on an $8 billion annualized revenue, a 20x revenue multiple, and a revenue buyback burn mechanism.
· Hyperliquid's share and trading depth have led in DeFi, but regulatory, competitive, and governance risks are still likely to dampen redemption rates.

In its latest report, Multicoin Capital has pointed HYPE's baseline scenario valuation for 2028 to $319, over 4 times higher than the approximately $63 at the time of the report's release.

This report places Hyperliquid in a more aggressive position: it is no longer just a perpetual contract exchange in DeFi but is moving closer to centralized exchanges in terms of trading depth, revenue scale, and token value capture. According to Multicoin's calculation, Hyperliquid is expected to achieve approximately $873 million in revenue and $29 trillion in cumulative transaction volume in 2025, with 99% of protocol revenue used for buyback and effectively burning HYPE.

Let's be clear from the outset. $319 is the baseline scenario estimate given by Multicoin, not a set price. Multicoin disclosed that it had been actively accumulating and holding a significant HYPE position since February and imposed a trading restriction period of three days after the report's release. For investors, what really needs to be considered is not just a single target price but whether the revenue assumptions, trading volume, and buyback mechanism can sustainably function.

Where Does $319 Come From: $8 Billion Revenue, 20x Multiple

Multicoin's baseline scenario assumes that by 2028, Hyperliquid's annualized revenue could reach $8 billion. If calculated with a 20x revenue multiple, this corresponds to a valuation of about $319 for HYPE.

The foundation of this valuation logic is that Hyperliquid already has cash flow characteristics close to those of an "exchange business": user transactions generate fees, and most of the protocol revenue flows back to the HYPE buyback burn, providing token holders with a more direct value capture.

According to the report, in the past 12 months, Hyperliquid has generated approximately $869 million in profits for HYPE token holders. In 2025, the platform's user base grew from about 301,000 to 923,000, and the holdings increased from around $2 billion to $6 billion. These figures explain why HYPE is being compared to exchange platform tokens and not just seen as a DeFi governance token.

The key difference lies in the buyback intensity. 99% of the protocol revenue is used for buyback and effectively burned HYPE, creating a direct link between revenue growth and token supply contraction. Unlike many projects that keep revenue in the protocol, foundation, or incentive pool, Hyperliquid's tokenomics is more akin to a "platform business profit return."

However, the $319 valuation is very sensitive to revenue realization. If the 2028 annual income does not reach $8 billion, or if the market is not willing to provide a 20x revenue multiple, the valuation space will significantly shrink.

DeFi Perpetual Share Leading, Next Step is to Capture CEX Order Flow

The first-layer fact supporting the high valuation is that Hyperliquid already has a significant share in the DeFi perpetual contract market.

According to Multicoin's referenced stats, as of June 2026, Hyperliquid's holdings in the DeFi perpetual contract market were about $9.6 billion, accounting for over 59% of the entire DeFi perp market, surpassing Aster by around $1.9 billion, Lighter by about $800 million, and other competitors. Real-time data fluctuates with the market, and metrics from platforms like CoinGecko also show its share at the forefront of the DeFi perpetual market.

Of more interest is its gap with centralized exchanges. A comparison of order book depth by Multicoin shows that within the ±1bp price spread of the BTC perpetual contract, Hyperliquid's depth is around $3.1 million, higher than Binance's approximately $2.3 million. While these data are still based on estimated reports, if they continue to hold, it indicates that Hyperliquid can now provide execution quality close to a top CEX on some trading pairs.

This is also a key reason why Multicoin is willing to give a high valuation. If a decentralized exchange is not only ahead internally in DeFi but can also continuously capture CEX market share, its revenue ceiling is no longer only determined by on-chain native users.

The report also mentions that Hyperliquid's monthly perpetual trading volume ratio relative to Binance has increased from nearly 0 in early 2023 to over 17% in 2026, with a concurrent holdings ratio increase to 21%. This set of data points to a more direct competitive relationship: Hyperliquid's growth is not just from internal migrations in the DeFi small pond but from competition for order flow with centralized trading platforms.

HIP-3 Hands New Markets to Deployers, Expands Revenue Horizon

Hyperliquid's Layer 2 growth comes from a market expansion mechanism, notably HIP-3.

According to relevant materials and reports, HIP-3, launched in October 2025, allows any entity staking at least 500,000 HYPE to deploy a new perpetual market and receive a 50/50 split of the fees with the protocol. Based on a price of approximately $63 at the time of the report, 500,000 HYPE is roughly equivalent to $31.5 million. This threshold not only limits the proliferation of low-quality markets but also incentivizes deployers to maintain trading depth and market quality.

Within six months of launch, the HIP-3 related TVL has increased from close to zero to around $2.9 billion, currently representing approximately 33% of Hyperliquid's total TVL, with peak trading volumes accounting for nearly 50% of the platform. This indicates that new market deployment is not just a feature update but has begun contributing to substantial trading activity.

This mechanism makes Hyperliquid more like a "market issuance platform." The platform does not need to manually approve all tradable assets but instead allows deployers to stake HYPE, create markets, attract order flow, and split the fees with the protocol. In theory, perpetual contracts can expand from mainstream crypto assets to more long-tail assets, commodities, events, or synthetic assets.

However, this also raises the associated risks. The more assets traded on-chain, the closer to the regulatory sensitive area it becomes. Areas such as prediction markets, options, synthetic assets may touch upon securities, derivatives, and gambling rules in different jurisdictions. Whether HIP-3 can expand revenue not only depends on the technology and liquidity but also on regulatory boundaries.

USDC Partnership and Wallet Onboarding Introduce New Revenue Streams

In addition to trading itself, Hyperliquid is also turning collateral and onboarding into revenue sources.

The Coinbase partnership with Hyperliquid regarding USDC has been reported. CoinMarketCap states that Hyperliquid's USDC supply on the platform is approximately $5 billion, and the reserve yield will be distributed to the protocol. Multicoin further calculates that based on about $6.13 billion in USDC collateral, a 3.65% yield on government bonds, and a roughly 90% revenue split, it could contribute over $200 million in annual revenue to HYPE. This figure should be viewed as a reporting model assumption rather than audited revenue already realized.

The wallet gateway brings another expansion path. Through builder code and the HIP-3 deployer mechanism, wallets such as Phantom and MetaMask can become "headless exchanges": users complete transactions on the wallet side, with underlying liquidity and matching coming from Hyperliquid. According to the Multicoin report, since the integration of Phantom in July 2025, it has contributed over $43 billion in cumulative perpetual trading volume and generated approximately $22 million in revenue for itself.

This distribution method lowers the user entry barrier and reduces the pressure on Hyperliquid to acquire every new user itself. If more wallets, apps, and trading frontends join, the order flow to Hyperliquid will be more diversified, and revenue may no longer rely entirely on the official website or a single app.

HyperEVM provides developers with deeper integration space. As per the report, more than 175 teams have deployed applications, where smart contracts can read real-time price, position, and margin data from the HyperCore central limit order book through precompiled. For ordinary investors, Hyperliquid aims to transform not just the trading interface but also the order book, margin, and asset issuance capabilities into an infrastructure layer.

The Full Potential of High Growth Assumptions Has Not Yet Been Realized

The biggest problem with high valuations is mistaking future catalysts for current reality.

HIP-3 has already produced early data, but HIP-4, portfolio margin, more prediction markets, and options products are still in early stages or yet to be fully implemented. Whether they can improve capital efficiency, attract new assets, bring higher trading frequency still requires validation through real trading volume and revenue.

The competition is far from over. Competitors such as Aster and Lighter may currently lag in positions held, but the DeFi perpetual market will still be influenced by incentives, fees, liquidity resources, and user migration. While Hyperliquid currently leads in market share, holding this market share is not guaranteed. If competitors can retain real traders after the subsidy tide recedes, Hyperliquid's advantage will be reassessed.

Governance and centralization risks cannot be ignored. In the JELLY event in March 2025, validators voted to delist markets and force settlements. The Hyperliquid official documentation also states that validators can vote to delist and settle based on the TWAP 1 hour before the vote. This mechanism can protect the system in extreme cases but also shows that a small set of validators have strong discretion. For a trading platform that prides itself on on-chain transparency and trustlessness, rule stability will affect institutional willingness to enter the system.

Regulation is a major external pressure. DeFi perpetual contracts, synthetic assets, and 24/7 global trading are already in a gray area of multiple regulatory frameworks. If the US and other major markets tighten restrictions on unregistered derivative trading, front-end access, or stablecoin yield splitting, Hyperliquid's growth trajectory could be interrupted.

A price of $319 is more suitable as a high-growth baseline scenario rather than a definitive conclusion. Hyperliquid has already proven itself not to be a typical DeFi project with its revenue, trading depth, and buyback mechanism, but to truly realize over a 4x opportunity, it needs to simultaneously maintain its market share, expand its product offerings, and ensure regulatory sustainability.

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