From various official economic data released by the United States, it can be seen that the U.S. economy is now very good, a very standard kind of good.

However, against this backdrop, overnight, from U.S. stocks to gold, from the Nikkei to commodities, and then to our most familiar cryptocurrency, almost all assets collectively took a dive as if prearranged. This indiscriminate, all-encompassing plunge has brought many people back to those days dominated by panic in an instant.

What exactly happened? Has the Middle East conflict finally spread to the financial markets? Or did Trump say something outrageous again? Or perhaps, a long-awaited perfect storm has finally arrived?

Appearance: Geopolitical Conflict, Trump's "Mouth Cannon," and the MAG7 Trust Crisis

Every time the market takes a dip, the first scapegoat everyone thinks of is geopolitics. The recent tensions in the Middle East are, of course, a significant factor affecting market sentiment. After all, war signifies uncertainty, and uncertainty is capital's archenemy. Gold and silver, as traditional safe-haven assets, hit new highs before the sharp decline, which in itself is a reflection of market risk aversion sentiment.

Another person who comes to mind first is Trump. The former president has recently begun to influence the U.S. dollar again, openly stating that he "doesn't mind a weaker dollar." As soon as this statement was made, the U.S. dollar index plummeted to a nearly two-year low. For a global financial system used to a "strong dollar," this is undoubtedly a heavy blow.

However, are these the whole truth? If it's just a geopolitical conflict, why did even safe-haven assets like gold also plummet? If it's just one statement from Trump, is the market's reaction not too intense?

Just like watching a suspense movie, the culprit is often not the first one to appear or the one who looks most like the bad guy. The real "hidden hand behind the scenes" remains more concealed.

User X @sun_xinjin mentioned an interesting observation, noting a downturn in the forward PE of the MAG7 (U.S. Big Seven Tech Stocks).

While this may seem like a minor detail, it reflects a broader shift — the market is beginning to cast doubt on the massive capital expenditure of these tech giants. In the latest earnings season, the market has become unusually "nitpicky." Beating expectations now equals what used to be just meeting expectations, and far exceeding expectations is the new beating expectations. If there's anything slightly unfavorable in the earnings report, stock prices plummet significantly.

This has led to the MAG7, along with the Nasdaq composite, consolidating at high levels for months. Some say this is a signal that the epic rally initiated by the MAG7 in May 23 years ago is beginning to fade. The market's main focus has temporarily shifted away from the MAG7 to "staples, semiconductor equipment, commodities like gold, silver, copper, and energy."

The Paradox of Bank Liquidity and Balance Sheet Reduction

Meanwhile, @sun_xinjin also mentioned another underlying issue: bank reserves remain low, and both SOFR and IORB are not accommodative.

SOFR is the Secured Overnight Financing Rate, and IORB is the Interest on Reserve Balances. The divergence between these two indicators reflects the liquidity condition of the banking system. When this gap widens, it signifies a tightening of the banking system's liquidity.

The current situation is that this gap is not accommodative, and this lack of accommodation would reduce the likelihood of seeing Federal Reserve's new Vice Chair Kevin Warsh advance his balance sheet reduction plan. Because in a scenario where bank reserves are already low, further balance sheet reduction is like draining water from a pool that's already running dry, exacerbating liquidity stress.

But therein lies the problem. Market expectations of balance sheet reduction themselves are driving up long-term bond yields, thereby increasing mortgage rates, which in turn freeze the real estate market.

That's also why, when facing a liquidity crisis, global funds choose to indiscriminately sell all risk assets. This is not just a unwind of the "dollar carry trade" but a broader liquidity crisis.

It's not that there is no money in the market; it's that all the money is fleeing from risk assets into the U.S. dollar and cash. Everyone is selling everything just to get back U.S. dollars and liquidity. This is the true core of the global asset meltdown this time — a risk preference shift and deleveraging process triggered by the narrative of fiscal unsustainability.

Will 312/519 Repeat Itself?

Will this be a new "312" or "519"?

Let's review some history:

312 (2020): At that time, the COVID-19 pandemic broke out globally, triggering an unprecedented global liquidity crisis. Investors sold off all assets for dollars, and Bitcoin plummeted over 50% in 24 hours. This liquidity crisis we are experiencing now is fundamentally similar at its core to 312, both driven by extreme demand for U.S. dollar liquidity due to external macro factors.

519 (2021): Triggered mainly by Chinese regulatory policies. This was a typical collapse driven by a singular, forceful regulatory action, with the impact relatively concentrated within the crypto industry.

In comparison, the current situation we face is more akin to 312. Macro liquidity tightening. Global funds are all withdrawing from risk assets to fill the liquidity gap. In this scenario, cryptocurrencies, as the "peripheral nervous system" of risk assets, naturally bear the brunt of the impact.

However, Trump's friendly policies since taking office have played a crucial role in this cryptocurrency bull market. Nevertheless, none of us can predict what Trump will say tomorrow. In a market structure that has already become fragile, even a relatively unfriendly remark could unleash a destructive force of 519.

The Impact of the AI Bubble

Back to the initial question. What is the real reason behind the global asset meltdown?

It is not geopolitical conflicts, not Trump's remarks, nor any "USD carry trade," but rather a paradigm shift in the market.

The epic rally that started in May 23 years ago was built on the narratives of the "AI revolution" and the "invincibility of tech stocks." However, now, this narrative is being questioned. The market is starting to ask: can these massive capital expenditures really yield corresponding returns?

At the same time, the long bond market is sending us a signal: fiscal unsustainability is no longer a theoretical issue but a practical one. The market does not believe that rate cuts can solve this problem because the root of the problem is not in interest rates but in fiscal matters. The market has begun to prepare for the "post-optimistic era," realizing that the current data-rich economic environment might already mark the peak of this cycle.

In this context, cryptocurrencies, as representatives of risk assets, are the first to be sold off, but this is just the beginning.

Ultimately, this may be an opportunity to rethink asset allocation. True value opportunities emerge when everyone is panic-selling. But the prerequisite is that you must have enough ammunition to survive until that time.

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