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When is the best time to sell after receiving an airdrop in order to maximize profits?

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The optimal time to sell airdropped tokens may be within 14 days of receiving them.

Original Title: 46% of Biggest Airdrops Hit All-Time Highs in 2 Weeks

Original Author: Nicholas Boey, Coingecko

Translated by: Deng Tong, Golden Finance

1. When is the best time to sell airdrops?

Among the top 50 airdrops, 23 (46%) recorded the peak token price within the first two weeks of the airdrop date. This suggests that the optimal time to sell airdropped tokens may be within 14 days of receiving them to maximize profits.

The airdrop tokens that achieved the highest price return in the short term include Ethereum Name Service (trading +73% on the 2nd day), X2Y2 (+121% on the 2nd day), Blur (+90% on the 6th day), LooksRare (+192% on the 10th day), and ArbDoge AI (425% on the 14th day).

In the recent airdrops, Jito (increased by 43% on the 2nd day), Wen (increased by 37% on the 3rd day), Dymension (increased by 75% on the 10th day), Manta (increased by 72% on the 12th day) and Heroes of Mavia (increased by 217% on the 13th day) are the most profitable for investors who sell shortly after receiving the airdrops. However, it remains to be seen whether the token prices of these airdrops will rise to new highs as they have only been traded for a few weeks.

Among these 23 airdropped tokens, 16 of them reached their peak returns between 2 and 14 days after the airdrop date. In other words, once the tokens are airdropped and begin trading, people's interest often sharply increases. This confirms that airdropping tokens is an effective marketing or growth strategy, but it also indicates that as more people talk about the airdrop, interest in a specific token often grows and reaches its peak shortly thereafter, reflected in the token's price.

The remaining 7 airdrops reached their peak prices on the day of the airdrop, and the token prices were unable to recover afterwards. For example, the airdrop token of Jupiter, a Solana aggregator, started trading at around $0.66, but subsequently fell by 28% and is still below its initial price. This happens when airdrop recipients are eager to profit from their "free funds," causing the airdrop to be immediately sold off. As recipients decide to exit the airdrop over time, the token prices of these airdrops continue to face selling pressure and hit new lows.

On the other hand, among the top 50 largest airdrops, 27 of them reached their peak returns more than two weeks after the airdrop date, with a time range of 15 to 581 days. This longer time frame for price peaks is usually consistent with favorable market conditions and growth of the respective projects, which leads to a valuation of airdropped tokens beyond their initial levels.

二、市场状况推动空投价格回报

Translation:

II. Market Conditions Drive Airdrop Price Returns

38% of airdropped tokens reached their peak value during the bull market of 2021

In the bull market of cryptocurrency, 19 out of the 50 largest airdrops set a new all-time high (ATH) in 2021. All of these were launched either before or in 2021, indicating that market conditions have driven higher valuations for these airdrop tokens.

Among these 19 tokens, 4 of them reached ATH after more than 100 days of airdrop. These airdropped tokens are Uniswap (1.145%), 1inch (216%), Gitcoin (242%), and Bank (94%).

Compared to their short-term peaks, these tokens have achieved significantly higher returns on their ATH prices. For example, Uniswap's ATH price return rate is 1.145%, which is 10 times the highest price return rate of 106% in the 14 days prior to the trade.

This indicates that for certain airdrops, recipients may consider holding onto their airdrop allocation to appreciate over a longer period of time in order to potentially earn higher profits in favorable market conditions.

2022 Year: A Good Year for NFT Airdrops, But Not for Everyone Else

In 2022, the market situation is relatively pessimistic, with 11 out of 50 airdropped tokens reaching ATH.

However, in early 2022, the non-fungible token (NFT) market experienced a bull run, which helped push the valuations of three of the 11 airdropped tokens (ApeCoin, LooksRare, and X2Y2) to new all-time highs. On the other hand, other airdropped tokens that reached ATH in 2022 were launched in the same year and reached ATH shortly after the airdrop date. Osmosis is an exception, as it was launched in June 2021 but reached ATH in 2022.

This indicates that during a bear market, the best time to sell airdropped tokens is after the airdrop in order to maximize profits.

2023 and 2024: Bullish Sentiment Returns?

The remaining 21 of the 50 airdropped tokens reached ATH in 2023 and 2024, as bullish sentiment returned due to the approval of a US Bitcoin ETF for spot trading.

Of the 21 airdropped tokens, 8 have reached ATH (All-Time High) after more than 100 days since the airdrop. These tokens are Arbitrum (68%), Bonk (28,091%), Celestia (777%), Optimism (186%), Aptos (34%), WorldCoin (249%), Arkham (67%), and Maverick (38%).

Additionally, it takes 15 to 100 days for the token prices of the other 5 airdrops to reach their peak, while the tokens of the remaining 8 airdrops reached ATH within 14 days after the airdrop date. (Please note that among the 8 tokens that reached their peak within 14 days, 5 of them were recently airdropped: Manta, Jupiter, Dymension, Heroes of Mavia, and Wen).

This indicates that the market sentiment will shift in 2024, so holding airdropped tokens may be more profitable when they reach new valuations in the expected bull market.

Three, When to Sell Airdrops

As of February 20, 2024, the number of days, weeks, or years required for the 50 largest airdrops to reach their highest token prices in history, as well as the corresponding peak price return percentages: