Original Title: "Mountain Window at Dawn, Light Penetrating Through the Paper | WTR 11.20"

Original Source: WTR Research Institute

Weekly Review

From November 13th to November 20th, the highest point of BTC was around $37,980, and the lowest point was close to $34,800, with a fluctuation range of about 9.14%.

Observing the chip distribution chart, there is a large volume of chips traded around 36380, which will provide certain support or pressure.

• Analysis:

1. 33,000-37,000 is approximately 1.8 million pieces;

2. 28000~32000 is approximately 2.03 million pieces;

• The probability of not breaking below 29,000-31,000 in the short term is 85%.

• The probability of not breaking 38,000~40,000 in the short term is 58%.

Important News

Economic News

1. This week, the US released data that was more dovish, which is seen as a positive shift. Investment banks believe that inflation can be reduced to around 2% next year, and the market is starting to bet that the interest rate cut before July will reach 50 basis points.

2. The usage of the Federal Reserve's fixed-rate reverse repurchase tool (PPR) fell below $1 trillion last week and dropped to $912.01 billion yesterday.

3. US October CPI fell to 3.2%, core CPI fell to 4%, PPI fell to 1.3%, and retail sales rate was negative at -0.1%.

4. The number of initial unemployment claims at the beginning of the week was 231,000, and the number of continued unemployment claims was 1.865 million, reaching a new high in the past two years.

5. Dutch International Bank predicts that starting from April next year, the overall inflation rate will be within the range of 2-2.5%, and the core CPI will reach 2% in the second quarter.

6. With inflation decreasing and employment slowing down, the probability of the market maintaining the same interest rates for the Federal Reserve in December and January of next year has increased to 100%.

Encryption Ecology News

1. German Federal Parliament member Joana Cotar expressed support for making BTC the legal currency of Germany and hopes to initiate a "preliminary review" of the legal framework to officially recognize BTC as the country's legal currency.

2. The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Commissioners Christy Goldsmith Romero and Kristin Johnson are urging the agency to issue rules or guidance to address conflicts of interest in the cryptocurrency space and protect consumers. The rules may be issued within weeks.

3. Bloomberg: Hong Kong and Singapore compete for a $5 trillion tokenized "cake". Liang Fengyi, CEO of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, said that as the cryptocurrency system gradually develops to a level that we feel comfortable with, Hong Kong is willing to open up more channels to a wider range of investors.

4. Futu's subsidiary, PantherTrade, has submitted an application for a virtual asset trading platform license to the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. As of now, a total of six companies have formally submitted applications for virtual asset trading platform licenses to the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission.

5. The stock holding report submitted by the National Pension Fund of Korea states that the fund purchased $20 million worth of Coinbase stock in the third quarter at a price of $70.5 per share.

6. K33 Research report shows that in the past month, institutional demand for BTC through trading platforms for ETPs has increased significantly, with an increase of 27,095 BTC, reaching a record level, surpassing the flow in June and July after BlackRock submitted BTC spot ETF.

Long-term Insight: Used to observe our long-term situation; Bull market/Bear market/Structural changes/Neutral state

Mid-term Exploration: Used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long it will last, and what situations we will face during this stage

Short-term Observation: Used to analyze the short-term market situation; as well as the possibility of certain directions and events occurring under certain conditions

Long-term Insights

• Cycle stages of derivatives.

(The cycle stages of derivatives as shown in the figure below)

This is data related to a derivative state, or in other words, a signal.

When he is going down, even at the bottom, it often means that the market is relatively safe in the long-term range.

When it comes to going live, especially with the top color and color blocks, it often means that the market has reached an unstable state.

He processed derivative data from 17 exchanges and extracted features and conducted modeling training based on a periodic approach to obtain the results.

The current stage is not a secure stage, and there is no clearing support for empty rolling.

is a kind of semi-stable state, similar to the process of consolidation and oscillation.

Mid-term Exploration

• Network sentiment positivity

• Trading volume

• Basic situation of long-term participants

• Stablecoin exchange net position

(Derivative trading volume in the figure below)

Last week's report mentioned that the game in the derivative market will be triggered by the increase in trading volume from low to high, and then there was a short-term rapid fluctuation in the market last week. The current trading volume has returned to a low level, and a similar wave of fluctuations like last week may occur again.

(Option Implied Volatility as shown in the figure below)

The implied volatility of options is at a high level, and the current activity of option traders is high.

Emotional State Rating: leaning towards FOMO

(Profit and loss transfer amount in the figure below)

Positive sentiment has slightly declined, but market enthusiasm has not decreased. The current short-term holders' cost has reached nearly 31K. Although there is some long and short disagreement, caution is still advised towards bearishness.

(New address and active address in the figure below)

The number of active addresses has slightly decreased, while the number of new addresses remains at a relatively high level.

现货以及抛压结构评级：大量流入累积，抛压中等。

Spot and selling pressure structure rating: Large inflows are accumulating, with moderate selling pressure.

(Net Head of Bingtang Orange Exchange as shown in the figure below)

There has been a certain amount of inflow accumulation this week, although some of it has been digested, most of it is still accumulated within the exchange.

(Net leader of Tai Exchange E in the following figure)

Continuous large outflow state.

(High Weight Dumping in the following figure)

There is currently no high weight dumping.

Purchasing Power Rating: Global purchasing power has slightly decreased compared to last week, and stablecoin purchasing power has also experienced a slight loss.

(Global purchasing power status as shown below)

The global purchasing power has not continued to increase sustainably, and there has been a slight loss compared to last week. For example, the high-weighted purchasing power in the Americas is no longer increasing continuously, and it may be difficult for the market to experience rapid growth again in the future.

(Net Position of USDT Exchange Heads, as shown below)

A small amount of net position of USDT exchange has been lost.

Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 36000; there is a willingness to sell at 38000.

(Coinbase off-chain data as shown below)

There is a willingness to buy at prices around 33000, 34000, 35000, and 36000.

There is a willingness to sell at prices around 38000, 39000, and 40000.

(Binance off-chain data as shown in the figure below)

There is a willingness to buy at prices around 33000, 34000, 35000, and 36000.

There is a willingness to sell at prices around 37000, 38000, 39000, and 40000.

(Bitfinex off-chain data below)

There is a willingness to buy at prices around 33000, 34000, 35000, and 36000.

There is a willingness to sell at prices around 37000, 38000, and 39000.

This Week's Summary:

Summary of News:

1. Generally speaking, the depressed capital market has entered the second half.

2. There is a high probability that the US stock market will reach a new high next year.

3. The market expects an earlier interest rate cut, most likely in March next year, with a high probability of a cut in May or June, and a low probability of a cut before October.

To prepare for the future market, it is recommended to keep things simple and avoid complexity.

At this moment, it will become difficult to make a decision on the temporary escape of the top, and the complexity is increasing.

On-chain Long-term Insights:

1. The derivatives market has moved beyond its initial safe zone, and the phase of rolling empty has come to a preliminary end.

2. The next stage may bring consolidation, correction, or pullback.

On-chain short-term observation:

5. Global purchasing power has slightly decreased compared to last week, and the purchasing power of stablecoins has also slightly decreased.

• Market tone:

This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute.

This article is from a submission and does not represent the views of BlockBeats.

Welcome to join the official BlockBeats community:

Telegram Subscription Group: https://t.me/theblockbeats

Telegram Discussion Group: https://t.me/BlockBeats_App

Official Twitter Account: https://twitter.com/BlockBeatsAsia