Source: WTR Research Institute

This Week Review

This week from August 7th to August 14th, the highest price of Bingtang Orange was near $30244, and the lowest was close to $28710, with a fluctuation range of about 5.38%.

Observing the chip distribution chart, there is a large amount of chip transactions around 29000, which will provide certain support or pressure.

• Analysis:

1. 26000-31000, approximately 4.16 million pieces.

2. 20000~25000 is approximately 1.54 million coins.

• The probability of not breaking below 24000~26000 in the short term is 85%.

• The probability of not breaking through 32000-34000 in the short term is 60%.

Important News

Economic News

1. The inflation rate in the United States for July was announced as 3.2%, which is lower than market expectations.

2. The probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged for two consecutive meetings is 69.2%, which is equivalent to the probability of the end of the interest rate hike cycle being 69.2%.

3. Deutsche Bank said that if the economic recession can be avoided and with the beginning of the rebound in corporate profits, the S&P 500 index will rise to 5000 points, an increase of more than 10% from the current level.

4. Citigroup recently stated that the orderly pullback in the US stock market last week reduced the risk of a significant sell-off and laid the foundation for the S&P 500 index to gain new momentum after reaching overbought levels.

Encryption ecosystem news

1. The Sandbox (SAND) will unlock approximately 330 million tokens worth about $130 million on August 14th at 16:00.

2. ApeCoin (APE) will unlock approximately 15.6 million tokens worth about $31.5 million on August 17 at 8:00.

3. Ethereum developers have agreed to launch the next official test network, Devnet 8, for the Deneb/Cancun upgrade at the beginning of next week.

4. Russia plans to start testing the digital ruble pilot on August 15th.

5. Bloomberg's senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said that BlackRock and CSOP's so-called internal "sources" revealed that the approval of spot ETFs will be within "four to six months", rather than a question of "whether it will be approved".

6. The Federal Reserve announced the launch of the "New Supervisory Plan", which includes cryptocurrencies and other emerging asset categories, to strengthen the supervision of banks participating in digital assets.

Long-term Insight: Used to observe our long-term situation; Bull market / Bear market / Structural change / Neutral state.

Mid-term exploration: Used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face.

Short-term observation: Used to analyze short-term market conditions; as well as the possibility of a certain direction and the occurrence of certain events under certain conditions.

Long-term Insight

• Macro spot selling pressure

(Macro spot selling pressure)

Because the overall situation and liquidity did not undergo significant changes in the past few weeks.

The situation has not changed, so this week we will focus on adjusting the selling pressure situation of the spot series.

(See the overall accumulation trend in the figure below) Combining the accumulation trend scores of various groups mentioned above, the overall accumulation trend score is also at a weak level.

可能⽬前⾏情缺乏现货玩家的⾼度参与，或者说缺乏短期现货玩家的参与，因此导致了⾏情在较低⽔平的状态下进⾏往复波动。

Currently, it is possible that the market lacks active participation from spot traders or short-term spot traders, resulting in the market fluctuating at a low level.

From previous cases, if the current situation does not change, there may continue to be fluctuations and slides.

Short-term Observation

• Derivative risk coefficient

• Option intention transaction ratio

• Net Head of Bingtang Orange Exchange

• Auntie Exchange Net Head• Global purchasing power status• Off-chain exchange data

(Derivative Risk Factor)

(Trading volume of derivative products)

(See Figure: Implied Volatility of Options)

The current implied volatility of options has not shown significant fluctuations, indicating that current option traders are more inclined to wait and see.

(Profit and Loss Transfer Amount)

(New Address and Active Address)

(Net Head of Bingtang Orange Exchange)

The net head of Da Bing Exchange is in a cumulative outflow state.

(High weight suppression in the figure below)

Purchasing Power Rating: Global purchasing power has slightly rebounded, while stablecoin purchasing power has slightly decreased.

(Global purchasing power status)

(Net Position of USDC Exchange)

(Net Head of USDT Exchange as shown below)

Net outflow of USDT from exchanges in small amounts.

Chain off-chain transaction data rating: Willing to buy at 28500; willing to sell at 31000.

(Coinbase off-chain data as shown below)

There is a willingness to purchase at the price range of 26000, 28000, and 28500.

This may usher in new scenarios and work styles for 3D design and simulation, including virtual modeling.

Encryption:

• Market Tone:

On-chain Mid-term Exploration:

1. From a macro perspective, the pressure of losses from participants in the 1-2 year and 2-3 year periods is gradually being absorbed.

2. From the perspective of structural exchange, internal liquidity is in a relatively increased state;

3. The accumulation situation within 1 month (short-term) is relatively weak;

• Market Tone:

Neutral and cool-toned.

Participants in the spot market are not very active, and if the current market conditions do not change, there may be a continued decline. Derivative product changes require additional analysis.

On-chain short-term observation:

1. The wind risk coefficient is in the neutral zone, and the wind risk is low.

2. The newly added active addresses are at a relatively high level, and the on-chain activity is good.

3. Market sentiment rating: Neutral.

6. Off-chain transaction data shows a willingness to buy at the price of 28500 and a willingness to sell at the price of 31000.

7. The probability of not breaking below 24000~26000 in the short term is 85%; the probability of not breaking above 32000~34000 in the short term is 60%.

• Market Tone:

The overall sentiment of the market is neutral, and it is expected to continue to be volatile in the short term with a low probability of significant downward fluctuations.

Strategy recommendation: Maintain position and dynamically hedge.

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