On-chain data analysis for the 47th week: USDC circulation has increased, and there are still signs of loss-making selling in the market

Original title: "WTR 11.21"

Original source: WatchToweR Research Institute

This week in review

This week from November 15th to November 21st, Bingtang The highest price of Orange is around $17180, and the lowest price is close to $15880, with a volatility of around 8.1%.

Observing the chip distribution chart, there are a large number of chips traded around 16500, which will have certain support or pressure.

 Analysis:

1. 16500-20000 about 3.09 million pieces;

2.   ;12200~16000 about 620,000 pieces;

 The probability of not breaking through 18500-20000 in the short term is 70%.

Important news

 < /p>

Economic news

 United States

1. The U.S. mortgage rate fell the most since 1981 this week, down to 6.61%. Expectations on top of rate hikes.

2. October PPI monthly rate was 0.2%, lower than the previous value of 0.4%, lower than the expected value of 0.4 %.

3. The ICE U.S. dollar index (DXY ) fell below 105.40, and was just below 107.00 on Friday, gaining nearly 0.6% this week.

a.   rose about 0.5%.

4. As of November 16, the weekly inflow of global stocks was 22.9 billion US dollars, and the inflow of bonds was 4.2 billion US dollars , cash outflow of 3.7 billion US dollars, gold outflow of 300 million US dollars.

 UK&EU

1. According to data from the British Bureau of Statistics, the CPI in October was 11.1% year-on-year, expected to be 10.7%, and the previous value was 10.1%. The year-on-year growth rate hit a new high since 1981. October CPI was 2% month-on-month, expected to be 1.8%, and the previous value was 0.5%.

a. Excluding the volatile food and fuel prices, the core CPI in October was 6.5% year-on-year, expected to be 6.4 %, the previous value was 6.5%; the core CPI in October was 0.7% month-on-month, expected to be 0.6%, and the previous value was 0.6%.

2.  According to data from the British National Bureau of Statistics, the initial value of GDP in the third quarter was -0.2%, compared with the previous value A sharp slowdown, but better than economists' forecast of -0.5%, turning negative for the first time since 2021.

3. The Bank of England said it may raise interest rates for the ninth time in December and expects to Inflation will remain high.

4. The 10-year British bond yield has fallen by about 12 basis points this week, and the 10-year German Bond yields have fallen by about 14 basis points in total, falling for two consecutive weeks, the fourth week of decline in the past five weeks, and the two consecutive weeks of decline have exceeded 10 basis points.

5.  According to Eurostat data, the final quarter-on-quarter GDP value of 19 euro zone countries is 0.2%, which is in line with expectations The same as the initial value, but a sharp drop from the previous value of 0.8%.

 Other

1.  Gold retreated this week after posting its biggest weekly gain in a year and a half last week.

2. This week, international crude oil fell further, once falling below the $80 mark, a new low since the end of September.

3.  Both U.S. oil and cloth oil fell sharply during the week, the worst performance since the last week of March .

4. Lunni fell sharply throughout the week, while Lunxi rose throughout the week, far ahead of other base metals.

5.   Offshore RMB (CNH) fell 344 points against the U.S. dollar in the Asian market this week, stopping two Weekly gains.

Encrypted ecological news

< /p>

1. After the local regulator in Hong Kong announced that it will open the door to virtual assets, ETF providers are busy submitting launches for Cryptocurrency futures ETF application for retail investors.

2.  The President of El Salvador publicly stated that the regular vote of rock sugar oranges will begin. Sun cut responded that he supports fixed investment and buys one every day.

3.  OKX and OKC public chain have launched a $100 million project ecological support plan to promote the industry ecology healthy growth.

4. Tesla CEO Musk: Twitter will launch an encrypted wallet in the near future and will Support deposit and withdrawal.

5. The follow-up to the FTX thunderstorm this week is still fermenting.

Long-term insight: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state

Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are in, how long this stage will last, and what challenges we will face What's the situation

Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; and the possibility of some directions and certain events under certain conditions

 Long term insight

 Large-volume loss-selling state

 Large-volume stablecoin circulation< /p>

 Status of participants of each volume

This week, discuss multiple possibilities in the future from the real market sentiment Sex;

(The state of large-volume loss selling pressure in the figure below)

In the history, the loss stampede chips are more present in the loss stampede When the total amount is low, the overall market sentiment gradually eases and improves.

Affected by this, the participants recovered with confidence, and relatively speaking, they had a certain basis for stabilization on the right side.

At this stage, the market still needs to digest for a period of time, so that the stampede sentiment will decline, and the market may usher in the conditions for stabilization.

(Large volume of stable currency circulation in the figure below)

At this stage, the outflow of the total amount of USD stablecoins has begun to decrease.

From the perspective of purchasing power, at least it is better than the potential purchasing power of the market a month ago.

(The status of each volume participant in the figure below)

< /p>

Maybe due to the low price, the more interesting aspect is that the market is increasing its holdings of currencies, whether from giant whales or relative retail individuals;

Of course, there is also one of the factors of the "coin withdrawal" movement.

Currently the market has fallen into a certain state of behavior.

It is possible to bring support to the current range.

Mid-term exploration        ;

 Internet sentiment positivity

 stable coin circulation

 Average sales life

 Loss Supply

 non-zero balance address

 high quality address Proportion

 Long-term traders untouched supply

 Net position of giant whale trading platform

 Net position of miners Position

 Small players

Active status on the chain: transaction sentiment repair

(Network sentiment positivity in the picture below)

Online emotional positivity, by measuring the transaction status in circulation, to This judges the current market activity.

At present, the decline is gradually shrinking, and it is in a state of partial repair.

(circulation of stablecoins in the figure below)

Blue area: USDC circulation

Green Line: USDT circulation

1. The current decrease in USDT circulation is a little slow, which may be because USDT users are still on the sidelines and in the process of emotional recovery after leaving the market.

2. On the contrary, USDC users are gradually increasing, and it may be that the funds for construction are currently biased It is a relatively good opportunity.

(Average sales life in the figure below)

Usually, the average selling life will be maintained in a relatively low range, that is, the selling of chips held for a long time may be a node of market changes.

The average selling life of ETH has increased significantly in the near future, while the increase of BTC has been relatively small. It may be that the recent currency holders have mild doubts about the market, and there are signs of gradual slowdown.

This model can provide a reference angle for observing changes in market holders' sales.

Growth state: loss supply digestion stage

< br>

(loss supply in the figure below)

The loss supply has passed a large number of levels and has risen sharply At present, there are still slight signs of hesitation. It is possible that the loss chips in the market are still in the digestion stage, but the range is small.

There may still be skepticism about participation in the market, causing participants to still sell at a loss when the sentiment of market trading volume is low.

(non-zero balance address in the picture below)

A non-zero balance address may represent an effective address on the site, which is currently in a state of stagnant growth, and may be a new user The pace of entry to establish valid addresses has slowed down.

(The proportion of high-quality addresses in the figure below)

< br>

High-quality addresses are on the rise even as non-zero balance addresses face stagnant growth.

high quality The address proportion is used to observe the proportion of addresses above 1BTC in BTC relative to valid addresses, and the current proportion is 2.17%.

At the same time, in the recent market changes, the proportion of high-quality addresses has increased by an order of magnitude Larger, it may be that high-quality users in the market are absorbing the loss-making supply in the market.

(Long-term traders in the picture below have not moved supply)

Long-term traders who have been trading for more than half a year have overall reduced untouched supply;

It may take time to re-fix the current state, currently The reduction in stagnation may be due to the slight slowdown in the long-term bargaining chip sentiment in the market, which has not decreased again.

Important group status rating: Miners reduce holdings, small players increase value Larger

(the net position of the giant whale trading platform in the picture below)

< img src="https://image.blockbeats.cn/upload/2022-11-22/aab7304a7177b819899e2b4d1b0e4198b7727155.png?x-oss-process=image/quality,q_50/format,webp">

There are signs of giant whales flowing into the trading platform slightly, and it is necessary to guard against the formation of potential selling pressure from large-scale players.

(Net position of miners in the picture below)

Miners still have a slight selling sentiment, and the selling volume is relatively large after the price drops, and they are currently in a wait-and-see state.

It may be the reason for the recent downturn in the mining industry and the difficulty in maintaining costs.

(Net position of small users in the picture below)

Small players have shown a relatively large increase in value after this decline, and they may be one of the parts that the current market undertakes.

Short term observation

 Derivatives risk factor

 Intention to Transaction Ratio of Options

 Derivatives Trading Volume

 option implied volatility

 Profit and loss transfer amount

 Add address and active address

 Bingtang Orange trading platform net position

 Auntie Trading Platform Net Position

 High weight selling pressure

 Global Purchasing Power Status

  ;Net position of stable currency trading platform

  off-chain trading platform data

Derivatives Rating: Derivatives are relatively low-to-medium risk, slightly hedged

(Risk coefficient of derivatives in the figure below)

During the leverage-clearing link in the big cycle, short-term derivatives leverage and risk also decreased.

For a short period of time in the future, the risks and burdens of derivatives should be relatively small.

(Intention to transaction ratio of options in the figure below)

The trading volume of options has increased relatively, and the hedge put ratio has also increased relatively.

But the put protection ratio has dropped a lot compared to early November.

(derivatives trading volume in the figure below)

The trading volume of derivatives has not increased overall this time.

The dull and small fluctuations did not generate much betting amount for derivatives participants.

(option implied volatility in the figure below)

Volatility in general is also recovering.

Emotional state rating: stampede mood down, on-site activity up

(Profit and loss transfer amount in the figure below)

This drop is not The occurrence of too many stampede emotions is the same from the profit side.

That is to say, in this drop, there are no real veterans who already have profits, and those who have lost have cut meat.

(New address and active address in the picture below)

< /p>

It can also be seen that the new addresses increase but decline instead.

The active addresses are on the rise, which coincides with the "hacker" rumors on the market; the main factor for this decline is the throwing of new addresses that are not long-term participants.

Spot and selling pressure structure rating: relative decline ease

(Net position of Bingtang Orange trading platform in the figure below)

The main encrypted currency is still accumulating and collect.

However, the speed of accumulation and withdrawal has decreased compared to before.

(Net position of E-Trading platform in the picture below)

On the other hand, there are equal to higher withdrawals or accumulations.

It may mean that more participants in the area below the current price are willing to take out their chips in exchange for such currency at the current price.

(high weight selling pressure in the picture below)

High-weight selling pressure produces a decline; confirmed by the above-mentioned series of relationships and associations.

The main culprit of this sell-off is neither the addresses that held coins for a long time nor the addresses with huge profits, nor the addresses that bought at a high price.

At present, apart from the “hacker” selling, other participants in the market prefer to wait and see.

Purchasing power rating: global purchasing power decline, stable currency loss

(The status of global purchasing power in the figure below)

Global purchasing power is declining.

It may be that some series of FTX thunderstorms have affected a large number of incidents, which has caused the participating groups in major continents around the world to fall into a depressed atmosphere, and there have not been many large-scale and intuitive purchase presentations.

(USDC trading platform net position in the picture below)

Such stablecoins have suffered a large loss.

The main users of more potential European and American groups.

(USDT trading platform net position in the picture below)

The stablecoins mainly used by Asian groups have relatively moderate inflows.

Of course, The composition of USDT is relatively complicated, and there are certain reasons for the composition of U-related futures accounts.

Off-chain transaction data rating: purchase intention below 15500 increases

(Coinbase off-chain data below)

< /p>

There is a relatively strong increase in purchase intentions seen in early November compared to current prices.

These intentional orders are probably at the price of 15500, 15000, 14500 US dollars.

(Binance off-chain data below)

15000, 14500, 14000 US dollar prices have most of the willingness to buy, but there is also a little willingness to sell above.

This trading platform is in a certain disagreement.

(Bitfinex off-chain data below)

15500,15000 There is a touch of willingness to buy.

This week’s summary:

Message summary: 

1. In December the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike fell to 50 basis points Slightly optimistic, the current probability of raising interest rates by 50 basis points is more than 80%, and the CPI in December is expected to decline.

2. The U.S. CPI has reached an inflection point, and the Fed’s interest rate hike cycle will also usher in a turning point. The market expects It may be only 3 interest rate hikes, which is expected to be 50+25+25.

At the G20 summit, the U.S. led to formulate a global regulatory framework for the encryption industry.

At the same time, Twitter and more technology companies are slowly deploying the encryption industry.

The regulatory policies and trends of the market are gradually becoming clearer, and the other end of the industry is also entering a real deleveraging and The process of restructuring.

During or after the middle of each round of bear market, there will be a large number of project thunderstorms.

More people believe that with the growth of the encryption industry, the size of the project will play a pivotal role in the encryption industry .

It will even affect the life and death of the industry, but it can be seen from the historical cycles and cases that the industry is still in its infancy.

No matter what the external environment is, policies and more and more important players are still joining.

Trends do not depend on personal will.

From a realistic point of view, more projects or participants will be cannon fodder in the embryonic stage.

The more important risk of leverage and cycles is a key issue that participants need to pay more attention to.

If you are a little careless, you will slowly be screened out by the tide of the times in the face of the baptism of the cycle.

From this point of view, it is believed that some projects in the embryonic stage can affect the life and death of the future industry, and more It is wishful thinking.

Compared with the bottom of the last week four years ago, the current industry obviously has a richer ecology and stronger momentum influx, and a more open pool of talent and capital.

Long-term insights on the chain:

1. Losses stomping on chips is more present in history when the total amount of losses is low, and the overall market The mood gradually eased and improved.

2. At this stage, the market still needs to digest for a period of time, so that the stampede sentiment will decline, and the market may usher in a stabilization condition.

3. From the perspective of purchasing power, it is at least better than the potential purchasing power of the market a month ago.

4. Maybe due to the low price, it is more interesting when the market is from giant whales or relative retail investors Individuals are all increasing their holdings of currency;

5. Of course there are more reasons for the "coin withdrawal" movement one.

 Market setting:

It may take a period of time to slowly restore the current situation and reduce leverage in order to achieve more accurate and rational pricing.

On-chain mid-term exploration:

1.  On-chain transaction sentiment is still in the repair stage;

2. USDC circulation increases; USDT circulation slows down and decreases, so wait and see;

3. The average sales lifespan is slowly decreasing, and the sentiment of participants who may hold coins for a long time is slowing down;

4. The growth of valid addresses stagnated, but the high-quality addresses increased;

5. Loss supply on the market is still slightly rising;

6. Long-term participants are suspended Increase or sell;

7. The giant whale has slight signs of flowing into the trading platform, and may be sorting out the wallet or Accumulate potential selling pressure;

8.  Miners are slightly selling and waiting to see, while small players have a larger increase in holdings;

 Market setting:

Repair, be cautious

There are still signs of loss-making selling in the market, but the high-quality growth in the market is better, and it may It is in a state of repair;

Take care of the slight inflow of giant whales into the trading platform, there may be a pressure measurement link.

On-chain short-term observation:

1. Derivatives have entered a relatively low-to-medium risk, but slightly hedged;

2.  The stampede sentiment and profit selling are relatively down;

3.  New addresses on the chain have decreased, but activity has increased;

4. Spot selling pressure has decreased relatively, but the accumulation is not strong;

5 . At present, the main selling force may be the "hacker" address, because other major groups have not participated in the selling.

6.  The time zone of major global purchasing power is in recession temporarily;

7. There is a relative loss of the US dollar, but a slight inflow of USDT;

8. Compared with the current price, the willingness to buy in early November has increased relatively, and more intentions are ready to accumulate below 15,500;

9. The probability that the price will not break through 18,500-20,000 in the short term is 70%.

 Market setting:

It is relatively dull and depressed, and the purchasing power of the market is low Sustained growth did not occur.

It may take time to restore confidence and "hacker" selling pressure.

Risk Warning: 

The above are market discussions and explorations, not directional opinions on investment; please be cautious and prevent market black swans risk.

This article is from a contribution and does not represent the views of BlockBeats.   

Welcome to join the official BlockBeats community:

Telegram Subscription Group: https://t.me/theblockbeats

Telegram Discussion Group: https://t.me/BlockBeats_App

Official Twitter Account: https://twitter.com/BlockBeatsAsia