On-chain data analysis for the 41st week: The increase in BTC new forces is relatively stable, and the loss-making supply has hit the bottom range
Original title: "Twilight is diffuse, the moon is like the wind｜WTR 10.10"
Original source: WatchToweR Research Institute
This week in review
This week from From October 3rd to October 9th, the highest price of Bingtang orange was around 20450, and the lowest was close to 18970 , with a fluctuation of about 7.76%.
Observing the recent chip distribution chart, a large number of chips are traded around 19200, which will have certain support or pressure.
Analysis:
1. 17800~18500 about 600,000 pieces< /p>
2. 22500~24000 about 70 10,000
The probability of not breaking through 22500~24000 is 63%.
Important news
Economic news
< /p>
United States
1. The U.S. ISM manufacturing index fell to 50.9 in September, lower than market expectations and a new low since May 2020.
2. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that non-farm payrolls increased by 263,000 in September, compared to expectations of 255,000. The unemployment rate came in at 3.5% in September, below the forecast of 3.7%. Accordingly, the market's probability of a 75 basis point rate hike by the Fed in November rose to 92%.
3. The two-year yield briefly fell below 4% this week, and the ten-year U.S. bond yield fell below 3.57% , the largest intraday drop for the first time this year.
4. U.S. job vacancies in August fell to the lowest point since June 2021, a larger-than-expected decline, and total hiring also fell sharply, Reflecting a slowdown in labor market demand.
5. The S&P global U.S. manufacturing PMI index rebounded to 52.0, reflecting Wall Street lowering expectations for Fed tightening, and the market again Bets on a rate cut as soon as next May.
6. Affected by OPEC+ production cuts, the United States decided to release 10 million barrels of strategic reserves.
Britain & Europe
1. The British finance announced that it will not advance the plan to cancel the 45% top income tax rate.
2. Fitch (Fitch) listed the UK’s credit rating outlook as “negative” Reliability gives a negative evaluation.
3. This week’s OPEC+ meeting unanimously agreed that in November and December this year, major oil producing countries such as Saudi Arabia and Russia will jointly cut production by 200 per day million barrels of crude oil.
a. Affected by crude oil production cuts, oil prices rose for five consecutive days this week, with a cumulative increase of about 12%.
4. PPI in the euro zone rose by 43.3% year-on-year in August, higher than market expectations, and rose to 5% month-on-month, the highest since March this year . The CPI in September reached 10% year-on-year, reaching double digits for the first time, and the European Central Bank is under pressure to continue to raise interest rates sharply.
5. Credit Suisse’s 5-year CDS soared to 321.1BP this week, the highest since the financial crisis.
a. The Swiss government will provide liquidity support for Credit Suisse, and Credit Suisse will introduce external investors to inject investment into the spin-off of investment advisory and investment banking businesses funds.
Asia-Pacific
1. Since Japan announced its intervention in the foreign exchange market last month, Japan’s foreign exchange reserves fell the most in September from the previous month.
2. According to data from Standard Chartered Bank, the foreign exchange reserves used to pay for imports in emerging Asian markets outside China have fallen to about 7 months. It was the lowest level since 2008.
3. South Korea, which is highly dependent on imports and exports, is currently in chaos in the supply and demand of US dollars. The market is worried that if the current account deficit accumulates for a long time, it may lead to a foreign exchange crisis.
In April, Caixin China’s services PMI was 49.3, down 5.7 percentage points from August.
a. Caixin manufacturing PMI fell 1.4 percentage points to 48.1. China’s foreign exchange reserves at the end of September fell slightly from the end of August.
5. Australia raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.6%, a rate hike lower than the expected 50 basis points.
Encrypted ecological news
1. This week The Council of the European Union approved the final version of the Encrypted Asset Market (MiCA ) regulatory legislative document, introducing a licensing system for encrypted wallets and trading platforms, and setting reserve requirements for stablecoins. MiCA is expected to take effect in 2024.
2. Tal Cohen, executive vice president of Nasdaq, said that a cryptocurrency trading platform will be launched when future regulations become clearer.
3. According to the US Securities and Exchange Commission data, NYDIG, a New York digital investment group, raised $720 million for its institutional Bingtang Orange Fund, with a total of 59 contributors people.
4. Data: In September, the trading volume of encrypted trading platforms rose to 733 billion US dollars, a month-on-month increase of 16%.
5. V God: Some block auctions can be used to deal with the centralization risk of block builders.
6. CME Group has applied for registration as a futures commission merchant and is allowed to provide crypto derivatives services.
7. Binance launched the LUNC destruction process for the first time on October 4, with approximately 14.6 billion LUNCs, equivalent to approximately US$4.87 million .
8. The total sales of NFT in the third quarter of 2022 was 3.4 billion U.S. dollars, a 60% decrease from the previous quarter. In September, the NFT transaction volume of the entire network reached 8.78 million Pen, OpenSea's "dominance" weakened
9. Data: The number of Auntie beacon chain verifiers exceeded 440,000, and the total pledge amount was close to 1,500 Aunt Wanmei.
10. Statistics: Circle burned $9 billion worth of USDC in the past three months.
11. The mining company Core Scientific produced 1213 rock sugar oranges in September and sold 1576 rock sugar oranges
12. According to the latest Cryptocompare report, Bingtang Orange returned -3.11% in September, but still outperformed the "S&P 500 and Nasdaq" The returns are -9.34% and -10.5% respectively”
13. Binance: The number of users registered in the Middle East and North Africa increased by 49%, which will accelerate Adoption of Web3.
Long-term insight: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state
< p line="96fs" ql-global-para="true">Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are in, how long this stage will last, and what situation we will face
Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; The possibility of a certain event occurring under the premise
Long-term insight
Auntie Simulated Supply
Long-term investor accumulation and cycle status
Total losses within 3 years< /p>
•The difficulty of overall computing power
Auntie Consolidated Supply Rating: Significantly Reduced Supply
< /p>
(Auntie's simulated supply in the figure below)
Since the aunt merged, the supply volume has been reduced by 90%.
From the perspective of the deep situation, the selling pressure has been greatly reduced, and this structure will extend the long-term top limit in the future.
At present, because the overall purchasing power is not sufficient, it is not directly reflected in the price.
Rating of long-term participants: total accumulated amount breaks new high
(Long-term investor accumulation and cycle status in the figure below)
Accumulated total of long-term participants Volume has broken new highs;
In most cases in the previous ten years, after a break, prices have ushered in a certain degree of upward movement.
Of course, the market downturn will affect the participants more or less.
Even long-term participants who have experienced long-term baptism will reduce their holdings;
Facing more unexpected situations in the market, more than ever Be more cautious at any time.
According to the reflexive theory, this behavior will lead the market order to continue to slide in the current state for a period of time.
Loss status rating: the total amount of losses will reappear within two years Upgrade
(the total loss situation within 3 years in the figure below)
loss The total volume reached a two-and-a-half-year high, and the market sentiment was heavy.
Computing power output rating: Surrender, reduce expenditure
(The overall difficulty of computing power in the figure below)
The difficulty of computing power has dropped again after several months;
It may be expensive Energy prices, along with huge costs and a depressed market environment, have caused some miners to capitulate.
Mid-term exploration ;
Long-term and short-term chip distribution
Short-term chips that grow to 1 month, 3+ months
Short-term traders hold supply
Accumulated trend scores of groups divided by quantity
Bingtang orange trend net position
Auntie trend net position
Bingtang Orange New Force
Auntie New Force
USDC basic structure
USDT basic structure
Loss Supply
Coin Standard Contract Percentage
Huge Whale trading platform net position
Market structure rating: addresses of all levels Slight recovery of accumulation, there are still more short-term chips in the field
distribution)
There are still many short-term chips distributed at the current price, and the short-term chips may have behavioral problems uncertainty.
In-depth observation of the behavior of short-term chips.
(Short-term chips that have grown to 1 month or more than 3 months in the picture below)
Blue: 1-3 months short-term chip change rate
Purple: 3-6 months short-term chip change rate
In the current 1-3 months, the increase in short-term chips is small, or even decreased, and there is a slight fault in the growth of short-term chips, that is, the growth of this part of short-term chips Poor performance.
3-6 months short-term bargaining chips appear to be increasing, and their current increment is relatively good.
Possible current market changes There will be a certain degree of testing and screening for short-term chips.
(Short-term traders in the picture below hold supply)
The short-term overall position status shows a V-shaped change, with minor repairs .
(The group accumulation trend score divided by quantity in the figure below)
1k-10k addresses are still showing good growth.
10-100 and 100-1k The addresses are recovering and accumulating.
The addresses of small players below Bingtang Orange are also continuing to accumulate.
The current accumulation situation has been slightly fixed.
Net position rating: The disk pressure environment is temporarily lifted.
( The picture below Bingtang orange trend net position)
(below aunt trend net position )
From the perspective of the trend net position of Bingtang Orange, during the period from September 12th to 30th, A large amount of rock sugar oranges were charged into the trading platform, forming a potential selling pressure crisis. Currently, there is a large amount of outflow, and the risk caused by a large amount of deposits is temporarily lifted.
Aunt Tai’s net position is also There are similar characteristics, but it shows an accumulation state earlier than Bingtang orange.
(Pictured below Bingtang Orange New Force)
From the perspective of the new force of Bingtang Orange, the current performance of Bingtang Orange A weak new force emerges.
Current Bingtang Orange Rebirth The power supply is relatively slow, and there is no acceleration, which may also mean that the current new buyers of rock sugar oranges are relatively stable.
(pictured below Auntie New Forces)
Auntie’s new force has declined to a certain extent recently, which may There will be skepticism among new buyers about this price.
Purchasing power rating: There is a phenomenon of capital loss, but the stock is still inflow Trading platform
(USDC basic structure in the figure below)
Dark blue: USDC net position
Green: USDC trading platform balance
1. USDC circulation continues to show outflow, which is currently slowing down slightly. The recent capital loss may be mainly reflected in the avoidance of USDC users risky behavior. (Reference suggestion: you can combine the US dollar index for detailed observation)
a. At the same time, combined with the trend net position of Bingtang Orange, the risk aversion behavior currently does not show the panic of "sell and leave the market". At present, it may be similar to the sidelines of funds that have not ended, or relative doubts about the current price.
2.USDC net position It shows that the remaining USDC supply in the current market flows into the trading platform, and there may be a phenomenon of "stock purchasing power".
3. Trade from USDC Judging from the balance of the platform, the recent inflow has been small, but there are still some inflows.
(The basic structure of USDT in the figure below)
< img src="https://image.blockbeats.cn/upload/2022-10-11/41ac60ebba9ab18bbeea2ffecedc7278168dc7a7.png?x-oss-process=image/quality,q_50/format,webp">
Light blue: USDT circulation
Green: USDT net position
Orange: USDT trading platform balance
1. Judging from the USDT circulation, it has not appeared recently USDT capital loss situation, there are still some increments.
2. The USDT net position shows that the phenomenon of USDT flowing into the trading platform is not obvious, and it is relatively hesitant and deadlocked.
3. The USDT trading platform balance also shows signs that buyers may be inclined to linger and wait and see.
Loss and abnormal situation rating: loss supply hits bottom range, currency The standard contract dropped to about 36%, and the giant whales contracted their selling pressure
(Loss supply in the figure below)
Loss supply The range that touched the bottom of history has now fallen slightly.
(Percentage of currency standard contract in the figure below)
Coin-based contracts have seen a sharp decline recently and are currently below 36% .
Combined with the trend net position of the trading platform, the "potential selling pressure" accumulated before also has the possibility of "currency-based hedging".
It is still showing a slight increase at present.
(The net position of the giant whale trading platform in the figure below)
The giant whales are still slowly shrinking the tokens left in the trading platform, showing a slight accumulation trend.
Short term observation
Bingtang orange long liquidation advantage
Auntie has too many long liquidation advantages
Coin-standard contract, U-standard contract
Put/call option position ratio
Active address, new address
•Profit and loss transfer volume
Holding 1~3 months group
Global time zone purchasing power
Stable coin trading platform balance
Off-chain data
Derivatives Market Rating: Game
(pictured below Bingtang orange long liquidation advantage)
The liquidation advantage of long positions fell back to 50% after approaching the high warning line. .
Futures open interest The rate of change in volume still shows an accumulation trend, and there is still a large part of stock leverage at present, and the derivatives market is in a state of stock game.
(Pictured below Aunt too much liquidation advantage)
The liquidation advantage of too many aunts shows the same trend.
However, the accumulation trend of the change rate of futures open interest has declined significantly, and the stock leverage is relatively small compared with Bingtang Orange, which also represents the current derivatives market. The interest in rock sugar orange is slightly higher than that of my wife.
(coin standard contract, U standard contract in the picture below)
Coin-standard contracts, during this round of continuous decline, The open interest still keeps rising, and a large proportion of it may be biased towards hedging forces.
On the contrary, U-standard contracts are currently declining to a certain extent.
(Put/call option position ratio in the figure below)
The proportion of options put/call positions has changed slightly at present. In the short term, the bets of these mature groups on the market outlook are not obvious for the time being.
Spot Market
Emotional State Rating : Adjust
(active address, new address in the figure below)
In the short term, the active addresses and new addresses in the market are falling.
Market sentiment has entered an adjustment.
(Profit and loss transfer amount in the figure below)
The amount of profit transfer is close to a local high and then falls back. Market profitability declined slightly.
The amount of loss transfers has risen and then hovered locally. Next, we need to pay attention to whether the loss sentiment is enlarged, and we need to pay attention to changes in policy.
Crowd Change Rating: Consistent Crowd Exit in 3 Months< /h4>
(The group below holds 1~3 months)
< br>
Groups that have held for 1~3 months are currently leaving the market, and the chips accumulated since the last sharp drop in mid-June , digests the vast majority in the short term proximally.
Purchasing power rating: Asian time zone mainly undertakes
(Purchasing power of global time zone in the picture below)
The Asian time zone is still the main force, showing a slow upward trend at present, and the purchasing power of the European and American time zones is gradually recovering.
(The balance of the stablecoin trading platform in the picture below)
At present, the balance of USDC trading platform has increased to a certain extent, and the balance of USDT trading platform There is a slight decrease.
The stock side and incremental side of the main funds in the market complement each other.
Off-chain data rating: around $18,000 has purchasing power
(Binance trading platform order book below )
Binance has a buy-side pending order around $18,000.
(Bitfinex trading platform order book below)
Bitfinex has a touch of buyer's pending orders around $17,800 and $18,000.
(Coinbase trading platform order book below)
Coinbase has intensive buyer pending orders around $18,000.
This week's summary:
Message Summary:
1. The United States continues to push While a strong U.S. dollar will help reduce U.S. inflation, the market believes that the U.S. is unlikely to take steps to depress the U.S. dollar or slow down its appreciation in the short term.
2. The U.S. dollar continued to strengthen, and many central banks began to sell U.S. bonds for U.S. dollars to prepare sufficient foreign exchange reserves for possible foreign exchange market intervention.
3. The latest median forecast of Fed officials shows that the Fed will raise interest rates by 1.25 percentage points in the remaining two meetings of this year.
Long-term insights on the chain:
1. Auntie's consolidated supply has been reduced by 90%, which may change the market pricing structure in the later stage.
2. The total accumulation of long-term participants has broken a new high; the current trend of accumulation of chips has not been abandoned.
3. However, long-term participants have also fallen into a period of downturn and accumulation due to market sentiment problems. According to the theory of reflexivity, it may continue for a period of time.
4. The total market losses have reached a new high in two and a half years, and the market sentiment is very heavy.
5. Miners began to surrender a little to reduce expenditure.
Market setting:
with overall global capital Judging from the market downturn, the real accumulation of long-term participants in the encryption market is still continuing.
At the same time, the huge total losses, heavy market sentiment, and rising energy costs made the miners surrender again
< p line="swwS" ql-global-para="true" ql-global="true">On-chain mid-term exploration:
1. There are still many short-term chips nearby;
2. The recent performance of 1-3 months of chips has decreased, and the performance of 3-6 months of chips has increased; short-term traders are currently slightly increasing their holdings;
3. Each group began to accumulate slightly;
4. A large number of rock sugar oranges flowed out of the trading platform, and the aunt also showed similar characteristics;
5. The new force of Bingtang Orange is relatively stable, and the new force may doubt the current price;
6. USDC is the main body of capital loss, but there may still be a small amount of USDC in the market to form stock purchasing power;
7. The circulation of USDT is still increasing, but the users in the market are vacillating;
8. The loss supply has hit the bottom range;
9. Coin-based contracts are reduced to below 36%;
10. The giant whale shrinks the amount of deposits on the trading platform, showing a slight accumulation.
Market setting tone:
cautious
"The risk of disk pressure measurement" may be temporarily lifted, but there is still uncertainty on the policy side.
There may still be a small amount of stock purchasing power in the market, and new buyers are more cautious.
On-chain short-term observation:
< br>
1. The advantage of long liquidation is close to 50%.
2. Coin-standard contracts continue to rise, while U-standard contracts decline to a certain extent.
3. The put/call ratio of options has not changed much.
4. The active force dropped slightly.
5. The loss transfer volume lingered after rising.
The group of 6.1~3 months continued to leave.
7. The Asian time zone is the main purchasing power.
8. The USDC trading platform balance has slightly increased, and the USDT trading platform balance has slightly decreased.
9. Off-chain data has purchasing power around $18,000.
10. The probability of not breaking through 22500~24000 63%
Market setting :
Inventory game, pay attention to emotional changes, pay attention to the policy side.
Risk Warning:
< p>The above are market discussions and explorations, not directional opinions on investment; please be cautious and prevent market black swans risk.
This article is from a contribution and does not represent the views of BlockBeats.
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