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On-chain data analysis for the 43rd week: the proportion of futures trading has reached a high position, and the accumulation game is more intense

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The style of the giant whale's position has changed, showing a state of accumulation. However, the leverage of bulls is slightly heavy, and there will be some resistance, and the sentiment of short-term participants is still recovering.

Original title: "Floating Life Uninterrupted, Stars Rising｜WTR 10.24"

Original Source: WatchToweR Research Institute

This week in review

From October 17th to October 24th this week, the highest BTC was around 19700 and the lowest was close to 18660, with a volatility of about 5.3%.

Observe the recent chip distribution map, there are a lot of chips trading around 18500-19200, there will be certain support or pressure .

Analysis:

1. 16000~18500 about 1.1 million pieces

2. 20000~24000 about 1.65 million pieces

Stay at 16000~24000 in the short term The probability is 64.4%;

In the short term The probability of not breaking through 22500-24000 is 63.1%.

Important news

Economic news

United States

1. The US 10-year real interest rate climbed 3 basis points this week to 1.76%, the highest since 2009.

2. This week, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose above 4.25% for the first time since 2008, It hit the highest level since July 2008, and the 30-year treasury bond yield hit a new high for nine years in a row.

3. The number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States this week was 214,000, which was lower than the previous value of 228,000. 230,000 expected.

4. The total number of existing home sales in the United States in September was 4.71 million annually. It was the lowest since September 2012. The median price of existing homes rose 8.4% year-on-year in September, falling for three consecutive months from the previous month.

5. The market predicts that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by another 75 basis points in early November, and the policy rate will rise in 2023 It hit a peak of 5% in half a year.

UK & EU

1. British Prime Minister Truss announced his resignation after 44 days in office.

2. UK inflation hit 10.1%, the highest in 40 years.

3. This week, the German 10-year government bond yield rose above 2.5%, the first time since 2011 .

4. The German Parliament passed a 200 billion euro emergency rescue fund to deal with the energy crisis, which will continue until 2024 Year.

5. The annual rate of CPI in the euro zone in September was 9.9%, the highest level since historical records.

Asia

1. Statistics from Japan's Ministry of Internal Affairs, Japan's September CPI increased by 3% year-on-year. If the impact of rising consumption tax is deducted, the increase in inflation is the highest since August 1991.

2. Japan adheres to a loose monetary policy, causing the exchange rate of the yen to fall against all major currencies. The yen fell below the important mark of 150 against the dollar, hitting a new low since 1990.

3. After the Japanese 10-year government bond yield rose above the upper limit of the policy range of 0.25% this week, The Bank of Japan conducted its first non-routine bond purchases.

a. period of Japanese government bonds.

4. South Korea rescued the market and restarted a 1.6 trillion won bond stabilization fund.

Encrypted ecological news

1. Bloomberg: South Korea plans to The public provides blockchain-based digital identities

2. Launched index fixed investment plan

3. Bitfinex Alpha data: Against the background of high inflation, BTC growth in the past 3 months Holders still accumulate about 500,000 BTC

4. After Azuki announced the launch of the PBT Token standard, the daily trading volume A new high in the past 3 months

5. Zhou Xingchi recruits Web3 talents and requires "project management experience and heart Renhou”

6. Binance updated the deposit and withdrawal fees of LUNC and USTC, and the transaction destruction tax was reduced from 1.2% Reduced to 0.2%

7. The Sui brand of the public chain will be upgraded to Suinami

8. Data: cross-chain vulnerabilities account for about 50% of all DeFi vulnerabilities

9. Cardano ranks among the top three NFT chains, second only to Ethereum and Solana

10. Nansen's encrypted native messaging app, Nansen Connect, is now available to all

11 . Report: The total market value of cryptocurrencies in the third quarter increased by 8.4%, and the NFT transaction volume decreased by 73% year-on-year

12. Twitter cooperates with OpenSea and others to enable the Tweet Tiles function for NFT collectors

13. Consider allowing retail investors to invest directly in crypto assets

14. Cosmos plans to launch interchain security incentives in November Testnet

15. Data: Bitcoin volatility lower than Nasdaq and Bitcoin for first time since 2020 S&P 500 Index

16. Bloomberg announced that it will expand the encrypted data on the Bloomberg terminal to the top 50 cryptocurrency.

Long-term insight: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state

Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are in, how long this stage will last, and what challenges we will face What's the situation

Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; and the possibility of some directions and certain events under certain conditions

Long term insight

circulation and profit and loss status

Long-term and short-term participant position status structure

(circulation and profit and loss status in the figure below)

The blue line is the total profit

The red line is Total loss

The green area is the historical low level of profit and loss of both participants

The main root cause of the stage top risk of the market comes from:

When the total amount of market profit has reached the current state supply of the total circulation, The market will have certain stage peak conditions.

And when these profitable people sell their chips, there is a high probability that the market will correspond to high volatility or decline.

From the perspective of historical review, the general cycle will reach the top after many times.

Currently, the overall loss state of both profit and loss participants has reached a relatively low historical stage.

(Long-term and short-term participant position status structure in the figure below)

And with this Corresponding to another state, long-term participants throw their chips to short-term or new participants.

When the total amount of chips accumulated in the hands of newcomers is higher than that of long-term participants, it is generally accompanied by a high-risk state.

Historically, the top of the red zone tends to happen at this stage.

From the current point of view, the accumulation of chips in the hands of long-term participants has reached the highest stage in history, and it is only a slight difference from the historical high.

Mid-term exploration < /h3>

Monthly and annual on-chain transfer volume
ratio of loss to profit supply
Trading platform futures proportion-change rate within 30 days
Intra-day risk coefficient of derivatives
perpetual contract position change rate and funding fee Rate
Liquid Triple Filter
Net position of giant whale trading platform

Market activity and profit-loss ratio rating: slow contraction

(monthly and annual on-chain transfers in the figure below)

Red line: monthly average trading volume

Blue line: annual average trading volume

Yellow area: monthly average trading volume > annual average trading volume

Purple area: monthly average trading volume

The average monthly and annual transaction volume has been slowly moving down within a year, and the monthly average transaction volume has declined Slow down a bit.

It may be related to the tightening of global monetary liquidity related policies , to reduce the popularity of the currency circle.

The current deserted state may be gradually converging, No inflection point formed.

Current major risks may exist at the timing of macro policy announcement , and the uncertainty of emotional changes in the space.

(The ratio of loss to profit supply in the figure below)

The ratio of loss to profit supply has reached a critical point in time, and the game structure of the remaining bottom adjustment problem may appear More complex changes.

Usually, the market is at the bottom In the region, due to factors such as the uncertain flow of funds and the foundation of small and medium-sized selling pressure, large shocks were caused, which made the participants in the market tense.

The current problem is mainly due to the insufficient participation of new forces, which leads to the restoration of the liquidity in the market, which may cause the profit and loss structure to stop in this state.

Preliminary study on the medium-term structure of derivatives: the proportion has increased, and there may be shocks

h4>

(below Figure trading platform futures proportion - rate of change within 30 days)

Derivatives of the current trading platform The rate of change in the proportion presents a situation of high volatility.

There may be more bets on derivatives in the trading platform , may introduce derivatives factors into the market, triggering relatively large price changes.

(Intra-day risk coefficient of derivatives in the figure below)

The risk coefficient of derivatives is The interval statistics of futures clearing capacity mainly reflect the market shocks caused by the immediate changes of derivatives.

There are three prerequisites for the current indicator:


1. The liquidation of the default futures market has a limit range, when there is a structure in the market When the sex changes, it may mean that the market style is switching.
2. Market environment: liquidity, selling pressure, purchasing power and other influencing factors have changed little

Currently in the neutral range, the game may be more intense.

(Perpetual contract position change rate and funding rate in the figure below)

Blue: Funding rate
Red: Perpetual contract position change rate

perpetual contract open interest 24 There is a certain increase within an hour, and the funding rate continues to be positive;

Maybe the current long positions in the market are increasing, and they are continuing to pay margins to short positions. Handle the current market with caution.

Liquidity Rating: In the area of weak liquidity

(flow triple filter)

Green line: ratio of short-term to long-term participant average costs

Orange line: short-term to long-term realized value

Brown line: realized position ratio

The liquidity capture filter composed of the three indicators complement each other.

The green line is constantly moving down, which may mean The current enthusiasm for short-term participation is still being repaired, and the inflection points of the liquidity of the orange line and the brown line are not obvious, and they are sliding in the same state.

Liquidity is very important for asset pricing, and There is a certain degree of proportional relationship between liquidity and black swan probability.

Especially for hedge funds, liquidity and risk control The coefficients have a very high close correlation.

Giant whale trading platform net position rating: giant whales are accumulating

(Net position of giant whale trading platform in the picture below)

The "potential selling pressure" of the giant whales that had previously stayed inside the trading platform has shrunk, and it is currently biased towards outflow accumulation.

Maybe large groups are switching operation styles, increasing The probability of change.

Short term observation

BTC and ETH Derivatives Risk

option call put ratio

Derivatives trading volume

BTC and ETH trading platform net position

chain activity and new addresses

Futures rate status

Profit selling pressure and stampede status

Multiple pressure selling status

Global Purchasing Power

Net Position of Stablecoin Trading Platform

off-chain data

Derivatives Rating: There is a preliminary betting phenomenon, BTC is slightly less risky than ETH

(BTC derivative risk in the picture below)

The risk of derivatives has shifted from relatively low risk to neutral.

(ETH derivatives risk in the figure below)

ETH’s derivatives are relatively risky Since BTC is slightly higher, judging from the changes in the sentiment of derivatives in the red color block, the market sentiment is in a state of relatively strong bulls.

Pay attention to the risks of ETH derivatives. Of course, even if there is no liquidation, a certain amount of leverage will be generated in the short term, which will make the upward resistance slightly larger.

(BTC option call and put ratio and trading volume in the figure below)

At this time BTC derivatives participants did not have too much protection and bullish action on market pricing, and it is still in the neutral range at the option port.

(The ETH option call and put ratio and trading volume in the figure below)

with this At the same time, ETH option put protection, although it has retreated within a day or two, is still up relative to a week ago.

It shows the certain hedging and protection of the current derivatives participants against the uncertainty of the short-term situation of ETH in the future.

ETH participants need to pay attention to the risks of derivatives.

(Trading volume of derivatives in the figure below)

Overall derivatives trading volume There is a slightly enlarged trend, and participants in derivatives are increasing the proportion of betting chips in their hands.

Because the current market may be a stock game, the impact of derivatives will be greater than that caused by general circumstances.

Need to pay attention to fluctuations;

At the same time, the overall rating of derivatives matches the trading strategy:

For professional intraday traders and a certain degree of Participants can use this data to assist in some level of momentum trading.

(BTC transaction in the picture below Platform net position)

Compared to before, the stock accumulation has been slowing down to a certain extent;

Displays the participants’ wait-and-see attitude towards the current situation in the last half month, temporarily slowing down the acquisition of chips in their hands.

(Net position of ETH trading platform in the picture below)

At the same time, ETH behaves the same way.

(the activity on the chain and Add address)

The data on the chain shows that new addresses and active addresses are in recent Within one and a half months, it has been in a state of relative shock and decline.

But relatively well, the new additions on the chain are slightly better than in July.

Sentiment and selling pressure status rating: depressed mood, small selling pressure

(Futures rate status in the picture below)

The performance of the futures funding rate has also shown a certain degree of decline in recent days. From the perspective of the overall exchange rate lending, the bulls are excited Mood also began to gradually decline.

(Profit and loss transfer amount in the figure below)

loss Both the stampede and profit selling pressure have reached the low level within two months, which means that both the winners and the losers have fallen into a state of hesitation and wait-and-see in the current market state.

Of course, to a certain extent there may also be a certain probability The phenomenon of reluctance to sell.

(The state of multi-time selling pressure in the figure below)

Multiple pressure selling The address has also entered a state of decline;

From the perspective of spot and emotional performance, this time it belongs to the whole Downturn;

Whether it is a loser or a gainer or a derivatives participant has fallen into a cautious stage.

Purchasing power rating: Asian decline slows down, Europe and America continue to repair, stablecoins Waiting for stock outflow to decrease

(The status of global purchasing power in the figure below)

;Red is Asian purchasing power

Blue is American purchasing power

Purple is European purchasing power

Asia's purchasing power began to show a downward trend a month ago, and it has only recently begun to slow down the downward trend.

Purchasing power in Europe and the United States has been in a state of repair, but it has also fallen into a short-term stagnation.

In view of the current bad situation in Europe, we can continue to observe the performance of European purchasing power in encrypted time zones.

(Net position of USDT trading platform in the picture below)

USDT has a certain inflow status , but this currency is often mixed with too many components and factors.

For example: U-margined futures.

(Net position of USDC trading platform in the picture below)

USDC often represents a certain The level of holdings of European and American participants, the current loss of stable coins has begun to decrease.

Although it will not be better than before, it has also slowed down the worse situation than before.

Off-chain transaction data rating: Below 18500, there is a certain purchase intention

(Bitfinex trading platform order book below)

18500 There is a buyer’s pending order, 20000 -22000 There is a touch of seller pending orders.

(Binance trading platform order book below)

There are buyer orders between 18300-17500, and there are seller orders between 20000-20500. Binance wants to compare Look at the fighting is a little intense.

(Coinbase trading platform order book below)

Below 18,500, there are intensive purchase intention pending orders, all the way to 10,000; Coinbase is more representative Institutional participants biased towards the Americas.

Correspondingly, it can be seen from this that they are not too sensitive to details and prices.

This week’s summary:

Message summary:

The Federal Reserve seems to be changing its previous hawkish style Becoming moderate, mainly due to concerns about a sharp economic slowdown, compared with interest rates, there is less room for the previous final value.

CPI and core CPI early next month will be in focus.

The next thing to watch is whether there is a smaller rate hike in December and whether it stops early next year.

On the other hand:

With the process of globalization reaching the current stage, that is, the rise of anti-globalization trends;

Blessing the current global economic recession, and inflationary environment.

The series of problems brought about by this will make some countries or organizations more aware of global cooperation to a certain extent urgent.

Web3 has changed the gap in global funding and collaboration, that is, the incentive environment and a further credit system.

At this time, AI is initially emerging in modular applications and in various fields, whether it is automatic programming or Automatic painting or automatic modeling;

Or automatic video and automatic text, which brings potential liberation in various fields Opportunities to further your workforce.

Another thing worth paying attention to is AR. The formation of general technology products does not happen overnight.

It will go through the product development period and product market scale, and the time of this process is about 10 to 18 years .

What AR will change will be the issue of interaction, even switching between virtual interaction and reality.

In the long term in the future, it may be about five years, later or even earlier;

Web3+AI+AR will form new subversion and new industry coverage.

There may be many crises in history, and this time may be no exception.

But what needs to be paid more attention to is that every time the rhythm of the times turns the world cycle changes, the government and the opposition in each era What kind of opportunities and prospects are contained in the alternation.

Extend the perspective, in the rhythm of the next 15 to 30 years, a new technological revolution will come;

It is like a ship standing on the coast looking at the tip of the mast in the sea;

It is like standing on the top of a high mountain and looking at the eastern sun that is already shining brightly and bursting forth;

It is like a baby that is about to mature restlessly in the mother's womb!

Long-term insights on the chain:

1. When the total amount of market profit When the supply of the current state of the total circulation has been reached, the market will have the condition of peaking in certain stages.

2. After recirculating many times from the historical review, the top of the cycle will often be produced.

3. At present, the overall loss state of both profit and loss participants has reached a relatively low level in history stage stage.

4. Under normal circumstances, in a bull market, long-term participants will throw their chips to newcomers Participant;

5. The total amount of chips held by long-term participants is lower than the total amount of new participants

6. From the current point of view, long-term participants have increased their holdings The chips have reached the highest stage ever, and are only a hair away from the record high.

Market setting:

cooling and hoarding;

In the stock market, participants and long-term holders within encryption are still hoarding chips silently.

On-chain mid-term exploration:

1. The amount of monthly on-chain transfers decreased The situation has slowed down slightly;

2. The ratio of loss to profit supply shows that it is currently at the bottom of time;

3. The proportion of futures in the trading platform has reached a high position and continues to fluctuate;

4. The liquidation risk of derivatives is currently in a neutral position;

5. There are many bulls at present, so we need to be careful;

6. The sentiment of short-term participants still needs to be repaired, and the current inflection point of liquidity is not obvious;

7. The style of the giant whale's position has changed, showing a state of accumulation.

Market setting:

Accumulation and competition are more intense

Giant whales are accumulating, but the leverage of bulls is slightly heavier, which will present certain resistance, and the sentiment of short-term participants is still recovering.

Short-term observation on the chain:

1. Derivatives participants have preliminary bets;

2. From the perspective of derivatives, BTC is less risky than ETH;

3. ETH derivatives risk rose to neutral-to-high, options put protection increased in a week;

4. Spot stock has continued to accumulate, but the speed has slowed down, and new addresses have also fluctuated and decreased simultaneously, but it is slightly better than in July;

5. The market sentiment is sluggish, and the spot selling pressure is relatively small;

6. Asia The decline in purchasing power has slowed down, and Europe and the United States have continued to recover;

7. The loss of purchasing power in stablecoins and other aspects has begun to slow down;

8. There is a willingness to buy below 18500 on the off-chain trading platform;

9. Stay at 16000~24000 in the short term The probability is 64.4%;

10. The probability that it will not rise above 22500~24000 in the short term is 63.1%.

Market setting:

Sentiment is sluggish, the spot market is sluggish, and it has reached a further stock game. In the future, we need to pay more attention to the issue of derivatives.

For strategy suggestions: momentum strategy, shock strategy.

Risk Warning:

The above are market discussions and explorations, not directional opinions on investment ; Please be cautious about and prevent market black swan risks.