Outlook for early 2021: These 10 major directions deserve the most attention

Original Source: Vernacular Blockchain

Original Author: Five Fireball Leader

It's the beginning of a new year. As usual, after writing the year-end summary of 2020, we should look forward to the cryptocurrency world in 2021, and what are worthy of attention (zhuan) (qian).

BTC

No way, not just a summary or an outlook, the first one to mention must be him.

In the last one or two months of 2020, BTC has proved with practical actions, what smart contracts, what mainstream, what copycats, what BCH, BSV, All are brothers.

As a result, readers who do not have BTC in their hands will face a very embarrassing situation at the beginning of 2021-buy it, more than 3,000 BTC last year Buy, this year's 30,000 BTC is too unwilling to buy. Don’t buy it. In 2021, the institutional bull market is basically a clear one. All analysts see 50,000-100,000 US dollars or even higher, and their messy Tokens may not even be able to outrun BTC.

If you want to ask me what to do, I don’t know to be honest. I can only say, don’t be tricked into getting out of the car if you have cake in your hand. If you don’t have cake, consider buying some if you encounter a big pullback. .

As a well-known big V said, this Bitcoin bull market may be different from the past. All financial report information is open and transparent, and the wallet addresses of all institutions can be checked. In a themed video at the end of 2020, the Wall Street Journal even shouted "That's made Bitcoin essentially a hedge against the dollar" (which makes Bitcoin essentially a hedge against the dollar).

So maybe the more than 35% retracement of the previous two bull markets may no longer exist. The previous two bull markets ended, and the squat of Bitcoin plummeting by more than 80% may no longer exist. The opening of the institutional bull market may be the same as gold passed through ETFs in the past. It started slowly, a long-term but stable slow bull market.

In 2021, whether your asset portfolio or one-pass operation can run beyond the full position of BTC and keep it still is still in the minds of every player in the circle The never-ending "shadow".

In short, in 2021, hold on to the pie in your hand!

ETH and DeFi

If BTC surrenders in front of all cryptocurrencies in 2020.

ETH's 2020 is to make all "Ethereum killers" kneel at their feet and become "Ethereum friends".

To put it simply, look at those public chains that are not compatible with ETH, especially EOS, TRX, Quantum Chain, IOST 2020, which were once known as the killers of Ethereum in the older generation Year-round prices, you get the idea.

And the new generation of star public chains: Polkadot, Near, Solana, will be compatible with Ethereum EVM through Bridge.

What’s more exaggerated is that Binance Smart Chain BSC and Huobi’s upcoming public chain have tried their own solutions, and Binance has started to use Cosmos SDK, Huobi and Nervos cooperated, but in the end, they all chose to Fork Ethereum, the wallet can directly use Metamask, the browser is exactly the same as Etherscan, the price query of tokens and Uniswap info is also 100% reproduced, DApp migration only needs a little Just change the code...

I saw a big V saying:

"In any country, the so-called financial modernization basically needs to do the following: 1. There is a central bank (like the Federal Reserve); 2. Commercial banks; 3. Stock exchanges; 4. Electronic payment (like our UnionPay, Credit card and Alipay, etc.).

Every blockchain has realized decentralized electronic payment. But only Ethereum Square has copied a decentralized central bank (MakerDao); a decentralized commercial bank (Compound); and a decentralized stock exchange (uniswap).

The vast majority of chains now only have local currency and transfer functions, and there are few perfect chains that even issue Token (that is, securities), let alone the central bank behind it.”

The popularity of DeFi this year has allowed ETH to find a completely different narrative from ICO in 2017. Although the price is only half of the high point in 2017, whether it is on-chain The number of assets, or the data of contract calls, has increased exponentially compared to 2017. The bubble brought by ICO has basically disappeared, and ETH is moving forward step by step.

About ETH, there are two points that need the most attention in 2021:

1. Rollup - V God has basically set the tone. The original sharding plan of Eth3.0 is "on hold indefinitely", and Rollup is used for capacity expansion.

2. EIP1559 - There has always been a dream in the circle, that is, there is a Token that can pull the currency king BTC from the throne of the first market value. Looking at it, if there is a project that can succeed, then the high probability is ETH. After all, the imagination brought by smart contracts will exceed value storage in the long run.

However, under the premise of such an explosion of DeFi this year, the price growth of ETH appears to be slow. The fundamental reason is that ETH has captured too much value for the DeFi ecosystem Weak, ETH itself lacks the function of value storage. EIP1559 has been introduced in many articles in the vernacular before, so I won’t be cumbersome again. In 2021, if we can see the implementation of EIP1559, I believe that the price of ETH may soar again.

About DeFi, the previous article 2020 "DeFi Carnival" summary, where is the new direction for next year? " has said too much. It is foreseeable that DeFi in 2021 will continue to evolve following the current 6th generation of products, including fixed-rate lending, derivatives based on Rebase and Layer 2, and so on. You will see more traditional financial circles, especially Internet finance "blockchain" projects, and you will also see more purely encrypted original DeFi new projects, and the latter is undoubtedly more worth looking forward to.

Layer 2 and New Public Chain

Layer 2 From 17 years to the present, after 3 years, it still has no effect, whether it is a channel, a side chain, or Plasma, you are in the world of DeFi It's almost untouchable.

The only "large-scale application" is the domestic Light Loopring, which is liked by V god Twitter every day. But it’s useless, look at the two-digit daily activity of LRC DEX users, and the expensive and slow but five-digit daily activity of Uniswap next door, you can only sigh...

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The biggest problem with Layer 2 is that they fight against each other, which is extremely confusing. The technical characteristics of each expansion solution are different, and even if the technical characteristics are the same, there are various subcategories. For example, Rollup has Zk -Rollup, OPtimistic Rollup, Validium, under each subcategory, there are several different companies working on their own research and development...

The new public chain is currently essentially incompatible with Layer 2 is the same. Before your own ecology is up, you can only obediently be an "Ethereum friend" and use yourself as an Ethereum sidechain. Gradually, you will have enough users and enough Developers and enough projects can slowly get rid of the Ethereum ecology.

In 2021, it is hard to imagine that DeFi will continue to cost more than ten dollars, and the handling fee of tens of dollars will continue to operate like this. Layer 2 or the solution of the new public chain The plan is imminent.

Layer 2 interoperability, there should be no hope in 2021, so the dominance of 1-2 solutions may be the most likely scenario, among which , there are several options worth looking forward to.

1. Near’s Rainbow Bridge——After Eth3.0 gave up sharding, Near can be said to be the leader in sharding technology.

2. Polkadot bridges ETH-there may be no one in this world who understands ETH better than Gavin Wood.

3, Uniswap V3 and  AC Empire——Temporarily unable to communicate at Layer 2 Under the circumstances, the right to speak of the DeFi core project on the Layer 2 solution will gradually become prominent. The two largest forces in DeFi at present are undoubtedly Uniswap, and the DeFi empire built by AC, Uniswap V3 and the Layer 2 solution used by the AC empire in the future. , is likely to be an important bargaining chip to determine the direction of ETH Layer 2.

In the new public chain, Polkadot’s parachain auctions and Polkadot’s original ecological projects have been launched one after another, which must be one of the highlights that cannot be missed in 2021 . Polkadot can be said to be the only new public chain that acts as an "ETH friend" and never gives up, and is qualified to be called an "ETH killer".

Another new public chain worth paying attention to is undoubtedly Dfinity. Today, when no one cares about DApp and DeFi is popular, the world computer, the original dream of ETH, may It was realized by Dfinity. At the previous Dfinity press conference, the team demonstrated the "decentralized Douyin" open source software CanCan, which only used less than 1,000 lines of code. A completely different experience.

Algorithm Stablecoin

I wrote In the never-ending rapid evolution of DeFi, skyrocketing algorithmic stablecoins Just a few people's carnival? " gave a detailed introduction to the currently popular generations of algorithmic stablecoins. Readers who have read that article and studied it carefully should have gained a lot in the past two weeks, especially those who participated in Basis and Basis imitation The myth that the early players of the game, 10 times a week, 10 times a day has already spread in various groups.

What's more exaggerated is that algorithmic stablecoins like Basis and ESD, while enjoying price increases, as long as the price remains above $1, they will also receive daily dividends . There is an investor in the circle who bought close to 1,000 BAS at a low price. In the past few days, he woke up every day and rebases tens of thousands of dollars.

On the bright side, algorithmic stablecoins may be the "holy grail" of the encryption world, and it can even be said that a successful algorithmic stablecoin will be more valuable than BTC In line with the vision of the "peer-to-peer electronic cash system" described in the Bitcoin white paper.

Especially with the SEC's recent accusations that USDT may be defined as a "securities" and the current limited size of DAI, the encryption world is too eager to have a "Purely encrypted native" and freely scalable, rather than traditional assets or encrypted asset-backed stablecoins.

From a bad point of view, the algorithmic stablecoin may be another wave of air hype, and many Basis imitation disk liquidity mining daily chemical is twenty or thirty Points, the annual rate is usually thousands or even tens of thousands. Even the Basis master disk, the daily stable BAC-DAI mining pool is also 2-3 points per day recently, and the BAS Boardroom dividend is stable at about ten points per day. Not counting the nearly 10-fold increase in BAS itself in two weeks...

At the same time, all algorithmic stablecoins on the market, from AMPL to ESD to BASIS, have not Finding a usage scenario as a "stable currency" is more of a speculative product that participates in the game of human nature. Of course, strictly speaking, BTC actually went through the same process in the earliest days.

So in 2021, which one of the algorithmic stablecoins can find "out of the circle" usage scenarios and be adopted by various DeFi protocols, which one can achieve 1 billion The above market capitalizations have massive liquidity, and which one can achieve the greatest user consensus is definitely one of the "big events in the circle" worth looking forward to,

Middleware, NFT, Storage, Privacy

Middleware, Link, GRT, KP3R  Probably the best few reps.

Link Needless to say, in 2020, everyone knows the importance of oracles to the blockchain industry.

GRT meets the huge demand of the Web3 builder community to query the local information of the ETH blockchain in a fast and usable format.

Kp3R is a working platform to help developers create "continuous state machines", a new field for the natural defects of smart contracts.

In 2021, we will most likely see more such tools and modular components, as the existence of blockchain middleware, such components often The potential is huge, because once it is widely adopted, it is equivalent to using huge business support. Link's myth of a hundred times in the past two years, and the return on investment of GRT's opening several times, I believe many people still vividly remember it.

In the field of NFT, when "Bubble Mart" was listed with a valuation of nearly 100 billion, the word blind box has penetrated into almost all fields of society. Fields are no exception. MpE has become the encrypted version of "Bubble Mart" in the circle.

In 2021, we expect to see more NFT applications, from virtual items in games to concert tickets, etc. Insurance projects, policy NFT, etc. I don’t know how the combination of STO and DeFi will develop in 2021. I look forward to seeing more off-chain assets mapped into the blockchain in the form of on-chain NFTs, or on-chain native NFTs in a similar way Projected off-chain, Either way.

As for storage, it seems that after the launch of Filecoin, there will not be much splash. At the stage where distributed storage is required, all storage projects are also calm. In 2021, it may be too early to see the take-off of storage.

As for privacy, it seems that Monroe is thriving on the gray usage scene of the past by virtue of it. With the large-scale application of DeFi in 2020, the demand for user privacy protection will definitely increase in 2021. At present, the privacy application tornado.cash on ETH is becoming more and more well-known, and it is believed that AMM products with anonymity function in 21 years may also be born out of nowhere.

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