Original title: "IOSG Annual Review: The most valuable thinking in 2020 and the most noteworthy direction in 2021"
Original source: Lianwen
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2020 is an extraordinary year. In the context of the raging epidemic, we have witnessed the sharp fluctuations in the stock market and the digital currency market, as well as the rapid update and iteration of the blockchain field. The world of blockchain has changed dramatically. As an industry observer, IOSG Ventures has not only gained a successful investment portfolio this year, but more importantly, it has gained insights into the entire industry, investment logic, and post-investment value creation. Grow and think. Next, we will look back on 2020 in a slightly different way, and hope that in the third decade of the 21st century, we will continue to create long-term value to build investment moats, do the hard and right things, and not just follow.
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Over the past 20 years, the democratization of financial innovation has remained slow. In the past year, we have seen the emergence of many innovative protocols in DeFi due to its low-entry-cost, license-free and regulatory advantages. The development of traditional finance has evolved industry theories of hundreds of years. The richness of the protocol layer began to be practiced. In the time machine investment rule, the infrastructure of traditional finance is complete and solid. We have seen the evolution of the DeFi protocol vertically from the emergence of the basic currency Dai to the middleware protocol to capture value, and then to the user portal to output value; at the same time, the development of the DeFi industry From the lending agreement, to the synthetic asset agreement, to the derivatives leverage agreement, the prediction market agreement and the insurance agreement, a series of basic tools required for the construction of the traditional financial system such as: leverage, margin, accounting unit, trading infrastructure , Loans, and issuance infrastructures have emerged in the DeFi world. This evolution is very similar to the development of traditional finance.
DeFi has achieved amazing explosive growth in the past year, and we believe that the middleware of the open financial stack in the encrypted network acts as the middleware that maintains the underlying network Safe native tokens and the value transfer of the top-level user application interface play an important role in adding value to the entire ecology. Among them, stable coin protocol and Decentralized transactions and Aggregation Agreement < /span> plays the role of decentralized value transmission, and on this basis, there are various financial primitives (Primitive). At the same time, as the marginal cost of communication decreases, there will also be DeFi aggregation effects and network effects, which also help us to deploy high-quality DeFi projects with more development prospects in advance. DeFi is rapidly transferring value in the world of Web 3.0. How to maximize efficiency and capture value with fat protocols and thin applications is the field and direction of our deep research.
The crypto world in 2020, We have experienced the black swan event, felt the enthusiasm of the DeFi wave, and welcomed the DAO rise. After the start and precipitation in the past three years, the blockchain has become the most cutting-edge platform and opportunity for open finance. DeFi has found the most understandable and down-to-earth application scenario for the blockchain. DAO was born on the blockchain, but not limited to the blockchain. The explosive growth of new DAOs and DeFi projects, and the decentralized governance of their organizations, has attracted more and more attention and participation. In addition to increasing investment in blockchain infrastructure projects, from 2018, 2019 to 2020, the overall layout of IOSG on DeFi follows the trend from The underlying infrastructure (such as: MakerDao that issues stable currency DAI) to Intermediate layer protocol (such as: synthetic asset protocol UMA, Synthetix) to the top-level aggregator , traffic entry (such as: 1inch, Matcha, dhedge).
IOSG Ventures 2020 Portfolio
1inch is a DEX aggregator, It builds the liquidity and pricing of DEX by aggregating upstream users and lower-level liquidity protocols, and gathers users through network effects and price advantages. One of the reasons for IOSG’s investment in 1inch is that liquidity transactions in the DeFi field are too fragmented and there are many protocols, and the market urgently needs the emergence of transaction aggregators; the second reason is that it provides different DEXs with deeper liquidity pools, and Ability to get the best price in various programs.
It turns out that 1inch, the dark horse of DeFi, has been recognized by the market: currently 1inch Daily transaction volume $389 million , In the past seven days, the average single-day active users have exceeded 3,000, and the community is also extremely active. In 2021, we will see resource integration platforms such as 1inch take on an important part of the DeFi ecological infrastructure and help the DeFi industry reach more users through the "one-stop" service model group. We believe that 1inch as a DEX aggregator is becoming the most important solution to problems such as DEX liquidity fragmentation.
❖UMA (middleware)
UMA provides Oracle and Smart Contract templates for DApp, allowing anyone to create objects that can track the price of any value synthetic assets. We started researching UMA in 2019 and began to contact the UMA team, and participated in the investment in early 2020. We firmly believe that UMA will become one of the most successful protocols in the Web 3.0 middleware stack, and they will surely explode in the future to provide the basic framework and basic business logic for many top-level applications.
At present, UMA has made progress in cooperation with several community projects in the near future , including Yam, BadgerDAO, etc., the user community grew by 9664. And this is just the beginning, and we look forward to seeing even more success with UMA in the future.
❖NEAR (Open Web)
Scalability is an urgent problem that blockchain needs to solve, and NEAR is a highly scalable basic protocol that supports running DApps on mobile devices fast enough. The use of sharding technology makes it more friendly to both developers and users, allowing the blockchain to scale linearly with the number of nodes in the network, with the goal of reaching 100,000 TPS . NEAR leads technological innovation by building infrastructure. Among the projects that can compete with Ethereum, NEAR is the most powerful competitor. With the Ethereum 2.0 roadmap further delaying the development of sharding, NEAR has become the current leader in sharding development. The core of IOSG Ventures' investment is to help teams with a vision like NEAR to develop, unleash their creativity, and work with them to create a more usable and good platform.
NEAR's progress in the past year is obvious to all. Ethereum's cross-chain Rainbow Bridge, which was officially released in December last year, is currently It has been running between NEAR and the Ethereum mainnet, and several DeFi projects are undergoing private testing. As of writing, NEAR’s market capitalization has reached 947.8 million US dollars, and the daily transaction volume on the chain has reached 10k~30k , its community is also growing very fast, instant communication (Wechat, Discord & Telegram) Global community members up to 50k. NEAR’s scalability and low fees have greatly lowered the barriers to use, so more and more Ethereum projects are considering migrating to NEAR’s platform. We will witness more projects migrating to the NEAR platform in the near future.
❖Polkadot (Web 3.0)
In the next few years, we believe that more and more developers will choose to build applications on blockchains optimized for specific scenarios. Substrate greatly reduces the technology cost for teams going this route, and Polkadot makes these different chains interoperable and composable in the ecosystem. This will enable a new generation of applications that would not be possible on a single smart contract platform. Therefore, we invested heavily in Poca and Polkadot ecology in the early stage. The ultimate mission of Polkadot is to interconnect all chains and build a fair and open cross-chain underlying system.
In addition to the amazing market performance after listing, Polkadot It can be said that it is the most in-depth community outside of Ethereum, and it also has the strongest attraction for developers. At present, when the parachain has not yet been launched, we are pleased to see that a large number of teams are creating core DeFi infrastructure based on Polkadot, including DEX, lending, synthetic assets, equity derivatives, privacy, etc. Also, we were impressed by the community-driven efforts to create developer tools, educational materials, and hackathons. These mean that the most valuable thing about Polkadot today is not the Polkadot blockchain itself, but the prosperous ecology it has quietly gathered. Once the main network is opened, many entities in the ecology may be able to maximize the synergy of the ecology at the fastest speed and complete a new leap forward.
❖Synthetix (synthetic assets)
The reason why we are optimistic about synthetic assets is that synthetic assets can promote DeFi lock-up volume and improve liquidity by absorbing traditional capital. Synthetix's synthetic assets are composable in DeFi, and the user community in the Synthetix ecosystem is also composable, which will bring about rapid user growth. We have seen the Synthetix ecosystem continue to expand, with more community projects and users on partner platforms starting to use the Synthetix platform, causing the weekly active users of the Synthetix platform to more than triple during the year.
At present, it can be seen that the highest trading volume in a single day has increased from 16.7 M increased to 186M, a year-on-year increase of 1013% span>, the number of highly active users increased from 3136 to 7777, a year-on-year increase of 148%. As more teams and developers enter the synthetic asset race, the asset classes that can be tokenized will continue to grow. Compared with lending, synthetic assets are still a small-scale track, and we expect this track to have even more amazing growth in the future.
Thinking and deciding to invest, the achievements of IOSG investment stem from the industry Keep thinking about summarizing. From our portfolio, we can see that in 2020, our focus not only covers DeFi, Web 3.0, and Synthetix synthetic assets, but also includes the Layer2 and Polkadot ecosystems that have been discussed in various communities recently. The following sections will explain in detail the tracks we are concerned about and the specific reasons, as well as our investment logic.
Investment targets: Polkadot, NEAR
As early as 2017, IOSG began to lay out the Layer1 track, cross-chain protocol platform Polkadot and Cosmos, sharding leader NEAR and many other Web 3.0 and Open Web projects. In 2019, based on past and latest research, we drew a Web 3.0 technology stack map and released a Web 3.0 research report, from its underlying infrastructure to Layer1 to middleware. Middleware is divided into on-chain and off-chain , to the application layer, and in the application layer it is divided into Open Finance. Over the past two years, the industry has been gradually evolving along our technology stack map. In the era of Web 3.0, users will have more control over their identity and data, and users will share data portrait rights with BAT. High replacement costs, strong network effects, and user experience are the barriers of Internet giants, and they will not be subverted in the short term, but the pursuit of users' rights to identity and data control will eventually start a prairie fire.
Ethereum ecology is the core foundation supporting the development prospect of Web 3.0 facilities, and IOSG also participates in the network operation as a verification node of Ethereum 2.0. At the same time, IOSG is one of the core strategic investors in Asia for public chain projects such as Polkadot and Near, and is also actively investing in Avalanche, Mina, Oasis and other emerging underlying protocols. On the other hand, through a safe and efficient Layer 2 solution, Web 3.0 applications in different scenarios will have more deployment options for transactions, communications, and incentive mechanisms when Layer 1 resources are limited.
Starting from fat protocol, thin application investment theory, we believe that With the rise of the entire DeFi open finance, middleware protocols and DeFi applications will emerge, and usher in a window of opportunity for the rapid development of the underlying infrastructure and upper-level innovative applications.
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2020 is more like a DeFi carnival, experiencing explosive growth and absorbing nearly $50 billion in new liquidity throughout the year. IOSG also took DeFi as an investment focus this year, and carried out multiple strategic layouts. In the end, the projects performed very well in the market. Regarding the overall picture of DeFi projects, we once made a "Panorama of DeFi Projects" on the IOSG official account, so I won't go into details. Here we focus on the two important tracks of synthetic assets and AMM.
"Synths" is a mirror simulation of the target asset, and the price is anchored , holding a synthetic asset does not mean holding a mirror asset but gaining exposure to its price. The head project of this track: Synthetix span> and UMA and their In addition to the ecosystem, there are some emerging projects, such as Synlev , Mirror span> and Deus .
With the main tone of blockchain financialization set in 2020 After that, synthetic assets provide a channel for DeFi to use traditional financial assets and more diverse and complex trading strategies. As long as the system and oracle machine can support and integrate, synthetic assets can not only simulate and track gold, stocks, bonds, various traditional or encrypted indexes, etc., but also theoretically can trade everything including pop culture market, Mpe market, personal Token market etc. Synthetic assets have released greater liquidity than native cryptocurrency assets, and we predict that 2021 will be a year for synthetic assets to shine.
There may be situations in any market where there is not enough organic liquidity to support active trading, do Market makers are essentially agents that alleviate this problem by facilitating transactions that would not occur in these markets. In traditional CEX, many market makers are professional teams or institutions. And AMM (Automated Market Maker) is equivalent to giving their role to the real decentralization. AMM replaces order matching with a mathematical formula such as an algorithm, a bonding curve. AMMs act as a market for new token issuance and are also the most popular solution for listing new protocols and facilitating long-tail token trading. Due to the permissionless nature of the AMM protocol and the simplicity of launching new tokens, this feature will exist as a long-term unique advantage of the AMM protocol, which is why we invest in < /span>1inch , 0x and DoDo .
In 2021 we will see the emergence of new DeFi products, The underlying protocol of these products is the financial infrastructure built on Ethereum in 2020. In 2019, the liquidity supply has matured, and in 2020, the liquidity incentive mechanism has produced liquidity mining and other innovative mechanisms. We’ve noticed that cryptoassets are starting to be packaged into increasingly complex forms, and new Dapp products are adding more functionality. We have seen some Dapps that can provide contracts, futures, forwards and options span>. The high composability of Ethereum itself will make it easier for Dapp to iterate. In addition, with the influx of new developers and the development of Layer 2, derivatives will continue to develop, and will bring DeFi closer to the performance of traditional finance. DeFi products can be programmed and will eventually surpass traditional finance. Therefore, the development of DeFi is promising and exciting.
Ethereum scaling has always been a challenge. As early as three years ago, the Ethereum community realized the importance of scalability and introduced concepts such as the first-generation expansion solution Plasma and state channels. However, since the rapid growth of DeFi applications and users, the community has truly realized and felt the throughput. The bottleneck of volume restricts the development of the DeFi ecosystem. Layer 2 technology provides a secondary framework based on the existing underlying blockchain to address its potential scalability issues. More and more DeFi projects are beginning to think about which Ethereum expansion solution to choose, which can reduce transaction costs on the chain for users, and can also take into account the composability and security of DeFi. Rollups are designed to address the data availability issues faced by other solutions such as sidechains, state channels, and plasma.
Ethereum Founder< span class="alertFont">Vitalik
started calling on the community to " Rollup " will be the leading solution to promote the expansion of Layer 2 of Ethereum. At the same time, other expansion solutions will also be promoted simultaneously to enrich the ecology diversity. The initial Optimistic Rollup plan may be implemented Relatively fast, it improves the lack of data availability of previous Plasma, but its security is not entirely based on cryptography. In the long run, ZK Rollup It is a more complete solution that uses zero-knowledge proof technology to ensure that expansion will not reduce security, but early engineering implementation requires large resources. Therefore, we are firmly optimistic about the long-term value of ZK Rollup to the Ethereum ecology, and may eventually form a diverse expansion ecology that focuses on ZK Rollup and supplements other solutions. p>
Layer 2 key directions in the future: Layer 2 security and reliability Composability; product interface and user experience; mobility solutions across different Layer2s (such as Hop Protocol and Connext); education to attract new users. We expect that by the second half of 2021, some large DeFi projects will gradually move to certain Rollup expansion chains to take advantage of their high throughput and enjoy lower gas fees. It can be foreseen that in the future there will be an indicator similar to TVL (Total Locked Volume) to measure the value capture of Layer 2.
Polkadot and Kusama  ; This year, the overall code progress is extremely high, and it is one of the few directions that can still become the focus of the market outside the Ethereum world after the DeFi fire. As a heterogeneous sharding multi-chain network, Substrate's open source development framework is used to bridge homologous protocols with each other, making it easier for end users to access the entire heterogeneous blockchain ecosystem. In addition, Polkadot's parachain auction this year is also a fairer governance activity. How Polkadot is compatible with DeFi and transactions in the Ethereum world, we have also seen a lot of development teams working on it. We believe that only when sufficiently rich and powerful ecological projects can interact well within the Polkadot decentralized system can the true potential of the system be realized. Therefore, we look forward to discovering more original projects focusing on specific professional fields in the ecology to help the long-term collaborative construction of the ecology.
Ethereum industry ecology VS Polkadot industry ecology
Similar to the development model of Ethereum in 2017/18, there are already a large number of projects built on Polkadot. The number of developers and projects based on Substrate has increased rapidly, and the support of the Web3 Foundation It also establishes a solid foundation for developers to adopt the Polkadot ecosystem.
In 2021 we will also see more Tools, services, and integration projects, their emergence will boost Polkadot's growth and accelerate integration with other blockchain ecosystems. These infrastructure projects are critical to increasing the value of the Polkadot ecosystem and helping Polkadot value-link with other blockchains.
Today we have seen EVM compatible smart contracts and asset bridges Application between Bitcoin, Ethereum and Polkadot. We can foresee that in the future, oracle machines, on-chain data query services, and API management tools will be the first to be built on Polkadot and promoted as user-oriented applications.
Because of the launch of cross-chain bridge facilities and slot auctions, Polkadot The DeFi ecosystem will flourish in the next few months. Based on the reality that the existing DOT+KSM market value is close to 25 billion US dollars, we must see that 10%-20% of the DOT+KSM market value will be used as funds for locked positions and card slots, thereby generating huge derivative value.
In the current DeFi innovations based on Substrate and cross-chain gateways, there have been There are project builds like Mangata The Ethereum bridge solves the problem of miners rushing, like Acala and Equilibrium , It is also providing stable currency and money market protocol support for the Polkadot ecosystem, and there are projects like Phala Such a private off-chain environment provides the basis for confidentiality.
In the earliest days of DeFi in the Polkadot ecosystem, auction based on card slots Logically, we can predict that liquidity staking will explode as the core value. At present, several DeFi projects are researching to provide similar Stafi < Flow of /span>, Acala staking solution. In the coming months, we will see a large number of projects replicate the LEGO nature of DeFi on polkadot. Once the basic LEGO system was in place, developers flocked to create innovative financial products.
Whether it is migration or direct development, I hope to see it on Polkadot To more synthetic token projects, business oriented projects (similar to Centrifuge) and DEXes/AMMs.
At present, DeFi assets locked in the Ethereum ecology will become the norm, wave In the short term, cards will attract many DeFi protocol migrations through card slot auctions, low-cost copy contracts, and scalability, but in the longer term, we believe that the real value of Polkadot lies in its ability to handle decentralized applications and data services. Polkadot The system has already threatened Ethereum 2.0 in terms of development progress and ecological richness. If DAPP breaks out again in 2-3 years, it is likely to gain support in the Polkadot ecosystem. Therefore, projects related to games, application development, data services, and native smart contracts (!ink) are also worthy of long-term layout preparation.
As the parachain auction draws to a close, more and more The project seeks the support of DOT whales (Whale), funds and communities to raise funds, and obtains parallel chain slots by staking DOT. The price of each parachain is highly controversial, ranging from 200,000 DOT per year to 1.6 million DOT per year. Most mature projects are well-prepared for the parachain integration and auction process, and this will be an exciting time for the Polkadot ecosystem, driving developers to build on Polkadot.
Investing is both a science and It is an art that not only tests people's knowledge, professionalism and judgment, but also tests people's disposition, aesthetics and values. IOSG’s investment logic and strategy are based on the long-term guiding ideology, and the key words include:
Union of knowledge and action:Usually, on the basis of in-depth research, it is not difficult to initially judge the intrinsic value of a project. Make heavy bets with judgment, and stick to your judgment in different market sentiments and environments. Therefore, investment needs to be faithful to oneself and achieve the unity of knowledge and action. IOSG has been focusing on research and betting on DeFi since 2017, and has built multiple investment portfolios. 1inch+Synthetix has entered the mainstream DeFi arena from an unknown grassroots development team. Matcha (0X) +UMA (in cooperation with the Yam/Badger community) They are all micro-innovations by well-known teams. In the process, we have witnessed the growth of the team.
Long-termism: Long-termism requires us to stick to our original aspirations, not to be troubled by immediate fluctuations and profits and losses, but to see opportunities and changes in the long-term future 10 or even decades; it requires us to Become a strategist with long-term thinking, not to prove anything to the outside world, but to work silently to do our best; we are required to take continuous value creation as the foundation of our lives, and make consistent decisions between short-term profits and long-term value. choice of one's own values. In the cryptocurrency industry, we adhere to long-termism, choose excellent projects to go with the team, become friends over time, and accompany the team and projects to grow together. Whether it is Polkadot or Near, we have given support at the earliest stage. For Polkadot, we have pursued investment for two consecutive rounds and then fully supported the developer hackathon. In terms of post-investment management, we have helped them hold meetup founder communities in four cities across the country. Yes, these teams have one characteristic, they are all believers in long-termism.
Insist on doing the right thing, not afraid of loneliness and Difficult: The future blockchain ecology requires serious and professional mature investors to build. They have walked step by step to today, quietly, but tirelessly preaching for the encryption field, allowing more users and funds to enter this field, for everyone involved, and for this era. Conducting in-depth industry research is essentially making contributions to the industry and the times. The screening of massive data and information, the communication and exchange of many projects in the industry, and the drawing and exploration of industry maps are complicated and difficult, but they must be done by someone. In this noisy capital market, only by being a minority who maintain independent thinking and establish a mature decision-making process and investment system can it be possible to not be disturbed by market fluctuations and emotions in the complex investment world. Find the main contradiction and become the winner of long-term excess returns.
Financial development is gradual, and DeFi will eventually cover various financial tools and applications. However, due to regulatory restrictions, encrypted assets cannot be fully used as a means of payment. For outsiders who want to participate in digital asset transactions, the infrastructure of DeFi is not perfect enough. Therefore, we predict that the short-to-medium term development pace will still be DeFi+CeFi hybrid collaboration pattern. In the traditional financial world, the first use cases of DeFi will be working with the financial sector to serve developing regions where traditional businesses are underserved. Because in these areas, DeFi can fill the gaps caused by the limitations of traditional financial services.
Global unmet financial needs mean $5.2 trillion market opportunities. Centrifuge and Persistence, which IOSG invests in, are among the best targeting these money-making opportunities. The main goal of this type of DeFi is to allow global users to participate in the decentralized economy and make instant profits. Centrifuge , Persistence and Goldfinch Connecting fintech companies who aggregate capital from DeFi and distribute it to those in need loan. Longer term, this is one of the directions that excites us the most, as it demonstrates the power of technology and free-flowing capital to create tangible value for ordinary people.
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Because of the composability of on-chain applications, flash loans are probably a product unique to DeFi. Flash Loan is a decentralized financial product that allows people with a programming background the opportunity to become giant whales, trading assets worth millions of dollars in one block.
We predict more talent will be paid due to flash loans It is not cheap to enter this field and further develop flash loans. In addition to motivating geek developers, flash loans have also turned DeFi into an extremely efficient market, with various arbitrage opportunities constantly emerging.
In order to ensure the security of the decentralized system, the DeFi lending protocol requires over-collateralization. Over-collateralization can ensure the smooth operation of the system when performing anonymous operations in DeFi. This is the same as traditional finance, but it also has the disadvantage of low capital efficiency.
Now, there is an agreement to access the middle party and let them endorse, Underpayment loans to borrowers with insufficient creditworthiness (such as our investment in AAVE). In this way, the risk can be transferred to the middle party, rather than the entire system. However, this model is difficult to scale due to the lack of trust between borrowers and lenders.
Insufficient mortgage loans that do not require the endorsement of an intermediary are the development of DeFi a big step forward for 2021, so we think one of the priorities for 2021 will be Underbalanced Mortgages , and we predict there will be more hostedWallet protocol to manage assets for borrowers.
The AMM protocol provides users with a good passive use of assets and earning opportunities. Liquidity providers are critical to the success of many AMM protocols. In these protocols, greater liquidity means greater trading volume under certain conditions. The reason for this consists of two parts. First, deeper liquidity means better pricing, and thus more orders are routed to a particular AMM. Second, more TVL means more volume generated by arbitrage bots responsible for the price efficiency of the AMM protocol. Locking large amounts of liquidity in the AMM protocol presents an opportunity to build DeFi Lego on top of this layer.
We expect to see a More LP Token Use Cases , thereby unlocking funds from the AMM pool (e.g. allowing LP tokens to be used as collateral for money market or synthetic asset protocols)
Launched at the end of 2020 Ethereum 2.0 phase one beacon chain, enabled Proof of Stake (PoS< /span>) consensus mechanism, upgrade PoW span> Proof of Work consensus mechanism. Judging from the fact that the number of active pledgers of ETh3.0 is far ahead, the initial launch of the beacon chain has successfully attracted the attention of the market. However, there has been controversy between ETh3.0 and ETH1.0. At present, the Ethereum network is very congested, and the average fee for each transaction is more than $10, which almost isolates the transactions of retail investors and long-tail assets. Therefore, the introduction of the Layer 2 solution can be said to be launched soon. But there is also this saying: ETH 1.0 is the earth we live in now, ETH 2.0 is the Mars that many people hope to move to in the future, maybe ETH 2.0 is the ultimate solution for the long-term future, but we must first survive, and then have a future.
The ultimate goal of both ETh3.0 and other Layer1 solutions is to get rid of the low TPS limitation. The initial launch of the beacon chain has made a good start for Eth3.0; the PoS consensus continues to run stably, and more potential pledgers and individual nodes will join Ethereum 2.0; the adjustment of the Ethereum 2.0 roadmap relieves the current potential Liquidity risk prohibitive for stakers. We believe that the launch of ETh3.0 is not only beneficial to the long-term development of ETH, but also beneficial to the development of its DeFi ecosystem, which brings certain expectations for the scalability of Ethereum in the future.
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In the past two years, we have witnessed the growth of the NFT field. From the underlying token protocol and public chain to development platforms, applications, and trading platforms, the NFT landscape has now covered multiple levels. We are optimistic about the breakthrough development of projects based on the combination of NFT and DeFi this year. There is nothing new under the sun. As early as a few years ago, there were many attempts in the industry to integrate NFT into blockchain games to provide permanent preservation and value support for virtual assets in games. However, the time was not fully ripe at the time, so NFTs did not experience explosive growth. We believe that the current time is relatively ripe, which is mainly reflected in the following aspects:
The community's enthusiastic participation in DeFi has formed a tolerance for higher participation thresholds, There is great enthusiasm and high participation ability for emerging NFT-type projects, and it also greatly shortens the education cycle for new users;
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The industry is gradually maturing, forming a more practical customer acquisition strategy. For example, the success or failure of NFT-based games depends more on the game itself attractive;
includes bottom layer The infrastructure including the agreement, the second-tier network, and the secondary trading market has been gradually improved, removing technical and liquidity barriers for the large-scale use of NFT-based games, social and entertainment applications.
In our investments , we will also focus on the layout of infrastructure supporting NFT's liquidity, high-quality games using NFT and other applications, as well as NFT-based applications in a wider range of financial, credit and warrants. People combine NFT with games and collectibles because it can carry one of the attributes of unique value. But we believe that scarcity is only the surface of NFT. We dig deep into the deep attributes of NFT, paying special attention to its relationship with DeFi, and new NFTs such as social tokens. At present, the scale of NFT transactions has exceeded 180 million US dollars. It can be expected that with the blessing of DeFi attributes, etc., the volume of NFT will break through in the near future. < span>Billions of dollars .
2020, decentralized exchange ( DEX) has basically completed the spot market layout. From the first quarter of 2021, we will see a more profound impact of DEX on derivatives trading. In recent years, several projects have begun to build infrastructure for the extension from spot to derivatives, and it is expected that benefits may be realized in the near future. Derivatives are also a development direction with great potential for DeFi. One of the important differences between DeFi and traditional finance is capital efficiency. At present, capital efficiency is not high and so much additional collateral is needed to ensure good behavior rather than to generate more synthetic assets or derivatives. From a DeFi perspective, no loan is unsecured. But it is possible to find ways to reasonably represent and tokenize cash flows beyond unproductive collateral. Key directions of community governance and derivatives: The role of delegation mechanism in community governance ; Derivatives and synthetic assets ; Reduce the collateral threshold .
In 2021 we will see the emergence of new DeFi products, The underlying protocol of these products is the financial infrastructure built on Ethereum in 2020. In 2019, the liquidity supply has matured, and in 2020, the liquidity incentive mechanism has produced liquidity mining and other innovative mechanisms. We’ve noticed that cryptoassets are starting to be packaged into increasingly complex forms, and new Dapp products are adding more functionality. According to this development logic, we can predict that complex derivative products will shine in the future.
We have seen that some Dapps can provide contracts, futures, Term and Options. The high composability of Ethereum itself will make it easier for Dapp to iterate. In addition, with the influx of new developers and the development of Layer 2, derivatives will continue to develop, and will bring DeFi closer to the performance of traditional finance. DeFi products can be programmed and will eventually surpass traditional finance. So, how Ethereum's hyper-composability can accelerate new derivatives platforms launched, in the future with DeFi " Lego blocks ", we can create new asset types and discover more value from the basic assets by creating new derivative platforms.
Currently, one of the biggest problems in the DeFi space is that interest rates are very volatile. A lender's APY (Annual Percentage Yield) can vary between 1% and 20% over a certain period of time, which is a big problem for large institutions and individual investors looking for stable and predictable returns. Based on the needs of yield sensitivity and market price volatility, graded bonds are the main solution in the market. Graded lending is one of the new areas of DeFi that began to receive attention at the end of 2020. Saffron and Barnbridge are leading projects that have been deeply involved in this field. By introducing fixed-income derivatives, these projects enable conservative investors to hedge against fluctuations in yields, allowing investors to achieve different levels of risk and return on the same asset.
The above-mentioned structured products occupy an important position in traditional finance and are One of the most used financial products. As the DeFi system matures, we expect structured products and tiered lending platforms to gain widespread adoption among investors. Due to the composability of DeFi projects, Saffron span> and Barnbridge will likely Be integrated into existing DeFi blue-chip projects, such as Aave , Uniswap With Compound , and for investment or provide additional hedging options.
In 2020, liquidity mining has become an innovative incentive mechanism for the protocol to distribute tokens to core users , similar to Aave's " Flash Loans" and " < Product innovations such as /span>Credit Loan " are emerging. With the development of DeFi protocols, more and more cores with governance value have been produced. Taking Maker and Compound as early representatives, since the second half of 2020, we have seen more and more DeFi projects start decentralized governance. The project uses an open-source code program for decision-making, and the organization's financial records are kept on the blockchain. Decentralized autonomous organizations and governance methods are undoubtedly a huge challenge to many traditional hierarchical and exclusive organizational structures in the world today. It enables better collective decision-making through "wisdom of crowds", which is superior to traditional governance models in terms of governance democratization. DAOs can maximize stakeholder participation in the decision-making process (decentralization) and enable governance transparency. DeFi tools may not be revolutionary without decentralization. Only with decentralization can DeFi platforms and projects achieve revolutionary results.
As of writing, the value locked in the global DeFi market is about $54.31 billion (DeFipulse.com), and The total asset AUM (Asset under managpent) managed by DAO is also as high as 9.918 100 million (deepdao.io). Decentralized governance creates an organization that is trustless, borderless, transparent, accessible, interoperable, and composable. As DAO manages more and more DeFi assets, and more and more community members participate in the governance of DeFi projects, it is foreseeable that more DeFi products will interact with DAO in the future, and more management rules will be adopted Write into the public code of the smart contract. We believe that decentralized governance will become the basic element of DeFi pursuit, and more DeFi protocols will be managed through DAO in the future.
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Since the middle of 2020, the DeFi insurance market has gradually become more popular, and a large number of innovative projects have emerged. Following in the footsteps of Nexus Mutual , others Insurance items, such as Nsure , < span class="Apple-converted-space"> Haka , Union , InsurAce is making rapid progress in development. We expect that more projects will come online in the next two years, and there will be industry-leading projects of sufficient scale. The risk categories underwritten by insurance projects continue to expand, from smart contract insurance to products that include market risk, event risk, real-world risk, and other risk categories. For example, investors buy insurance against market risk based on derivatives, thereby reducing the impact of price fluctuations. In addition, the real-world risk insurance chain has also made great progress. We have seen insurance projects about aviation and agricultural risks ready to go online. It is expected that in the next two years, with the development and launch of more projects, more risk categories can be insured to meet the various needs of users.
With the expansion of the DeFi ecosystem, the number of users and the ecosystem With the soaring amount of domestic funds, the demand for insurance will explode in 2020, and the number of insurance users will continue to rise (for example, the insurance volume of Nexus Mutual will increase by more than a thousand times within this year). We expect that in the next two years—as the DeFi ecosystem gradually grows and matures—the number of insurance users will continue to rise, and the proportion of DeFi users who purchase insurance will also increase.
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Although the DeFi insurance industry still has many risks and challenges, such as effective leverage/ The low utilization rate of funds has resulted in a shortage of insurance. The ecology of independent underwriters is lacking, and the entry threshold for insurance users is high. The insurance project itself is under attack, the reinsurance business ecology is missing, and so on. However, we believe that insurance is an indispensable link in the blockchain, and large assets require an additional layer of external protection. We expect that in the next two years, with the joint efforts of the developer team, community and investors, these problems will be resolved.
The integration and impact of traditional finance and blockchain finance, sovereign supervision is bound to make centralization Stablecoins are more restricted, pushing the crypto economy towards decentralized stablecoins. At the same time, the stable currency cross-border payment business continues to grow, and the use of stable currency or any encrypted assets for cross-border payment is simpler and more effective than traditional methods. The decentralization and censorship resistance of algorithmic stablecoins make them almost certain to enter the mainstream in the long run. In the past year, the skyrocketing prices of algorithmic stablecoins such as ESD, BASIS, and FRAX led by AMPL reshuffled the trading list, making the industry look at algorithmic stablecoins with admiration. Because no collateral was required in the early stage, and there was no underlying value support, the capital game involved in the transaction was highly speculative. After the bubble dissipates, the algorithmic stable currency will gradually stabilize and maintain a balanced state, while FRAX Represented part of the mortgage algorithm stable currency , more like a An interesting social experiment to find the Schelling point where it should be, between price stability, capital utilization, and censorship resistance.
From 2019 to 2020, Ethereum addresses increased from 84 million to 131 million, an increase of 56 %, for data requirements, many companies have already started to test the water, Nansen span> will mark more than 50 million addresses and activities on the Ethereum chain, and conduct data analysis, and the data analysis has only a 4-minute delay. In addition, the DeBank we deployed this year sorted out the latest projects for the entire DeFi ecosystem and counted all the data on the chain. The community began to use the lock-up volume (TVL), user scale, and transaction volume data defined by DeBank as important data for the DeFi ecosystem. trend indicator. Another important team, Scout chose another product form to provide users with a tool that can dig deep into Ethereum data. Moreover, Scout provides a graphical interface in order to further lower the threshold of the tool. The prospect of DeFi is still infinitely broad, and Nansen, which focuses on on-chain analysis, will continue to provide professional and reliable data support for in-depth users.
The DeFi market already has 54.31 billion USD locked TVL, more than 700 The market value of Ethereum is 201.1 billion US dollars (as of press time). With Aave and Synthetix, Uniswap ranks among the top 20 in total market value. We have reason to believe that the prospect of DeFi is still infinitely broad, and the data that focuses on and on-chain analysis The platform will also continue to provide professional and reliable data support for in-depth users, which will highlight its value even more.
The emergence and rise of social tokens has brought a kaleidoscopic dawn to the value input of social media . Various token distribution models help issuers and holders obtain certain short-term and long-term value capture. We believe that the future of social protocols can lie in the creation of a complete social capital market, where anyone can exchange issued tokens at any time for any reason, but once the issued tokens are sufficiently decentralized and circulated, formal transactions will likely appear in the field Place. This will enable our community, third parties, and virtually any network participant to easily exchange social currency among each other. This is already available from the fork exchange of Roll and Uniswap V2 reflected in.
Roll The social base layer acts as a community aggregator, bringing personal and community tokens into its arms. Cherry is a classic example. It is a social token with a large position in the Roll platform and an Internet celebrity. By issuing Cherry, founders can effectively create their own economic market and earn $Cherry by motivating users to participate in interaction and sharing. Users who have $Cherry can exchange for CherryBlossom, and use it to exchange for a series of Perks, such as watching Cherry's exclusive content, interacting with Cherry, and voting for Cherry's next activities. However, the core point of Cherry is not limited to gaining superficial advantages, but also to fundamentally safeguard the rights and interests of both consumers and artists, helping other artists earn fees through Cherry and directly providing consumers with valuable content . The good news is that this case is just the tip of the iceberg of individual token capabilities: different artists can develop different models, create different mechanisms and opportunities, and the development direction of diversity is what should excite us p>
IOSG is full of expectations for the emergence of social protocol tokens. In the past year, we have added the Roll social token to our portfolio, allowing us to take the first step in this industry. Roll has become the most popular token issuance tool in the industry in the short two years since its establishment, and has evolved into the focus of social agreement issuance tokens. In the new year, we will pay more attention to and discover promising models, protocols and tools in the industry, and explore valuable opportunities in the social token market.
Although the asset scale of DeFi is growing rapidly, we need to calmly see that each DeFi The actual number of users of the protocol has slowed down, and for some infrastructure protocols, the number of users can be said to be stagnant. We think this is because participating in DeFi has become more and more like a capital-intensive industry, and transaction fees are only friendly to giant whales, but for early adopters who are new to DeFi with an attitude of trying, and the huge blue ocean of long-tail users in the future The threshold is extremely high.
Although we are also looking forward to Layer2 Rollup, side chains and other public chains Try to migrate the existing Layer1 DeFi ecosystem, but we also realize that such ecosystem migration will be slow and challenging. In the future, we will pay great attention to the application layer and infrastructure projects that can revitalize the existing Layer1 DeFi ecosystem and make it easier and low-cost for long-tail users to access and use DeFi.
IOSG Ventures is a research and community-driven investment institution. Thinking in various fields of the chain and a lot of research to make investment decisions. By outputting research reports, it helps the whole team to realize the missing part of the current market, and also obtains opportunities for reflection from time to time. As a responsible investment institution, IOSG not only provides financial support for investment projects, but also provides community building, resource docking, brand promotion, ecological expansion and other assistance, which is meaningful to both parties. Because in this cycle, the employer can better understand what the project is doing, see the market trend of the industry, and find that it can make more contributions to the progress of the industry and society. It is an extremely happy thing to really participate in the ecology of the project, witness the development of the project from 0 to 1, provide constructive improvement suggestions for its products, and deeply participate in the wave of industry change.
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From the beginning of 2020 to the end of the year, a total of more than 80 WeeklyBrief articles have been output, covering industry insights, news trends, fund conditions, etc. At the same time, Medium is the main publishing platform for English content, and many articles are output in the form of Newsletter, from discussing the underlying logic of AMM to exploring SushiSwap, a popular product in the market, and so on. Research reports are the foundation of IOSG, and we have always maintained a rigorous and awe-inspiring attitude towards the industry and the market.
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For a list of reports in Chinese, you can follow the official account "IOSG" to read the details
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English content list, you can follow @IOSG VC for details
The IOSG Ventures team is located in China, the United States, Europe and Singapore. To help the project grow, the team members actively participate in relevant communities and In the organization, provide support for projects through efficient communication and collaboration, establish a huge social network, help the investment portfolio grow and complete brand building, and also increase the influence and community scale of its products.
IOSG Ventures has joined relevant well-known organizations in the industry, such as the Enterprise Ethereum Alliance (EEA), The Chicago DeFi Alliance (CDA) and others have developed startup growth plans for portfolios to help them go further. At the same time, IOSG is also the main participant and promoter of DeFi Summit, a well-known DeFi event, and is also the official Metacartel DAO Members. We firmly believe in the power of the community and insist on the responsibility as an investment institution to help start-ups grow. We hope to give not only financial help, but also community and resource support. We often communicate with project founders, teams, developers, We maintain close contact with exchanges, academic research institutions, other venture capital funds, media and online opinion leaders to help projects such as Near and Oasis establish cooperation, improve the ease of use and development efficiency of their products, and assist in building communities; at the same time, we It is also encouraging more developers to participate in the entire industry, sponsoring seminars and some hackathon activities jointly organized by Cosmos in conjunction with top universities and developer communities.
What we can continue to do for Portfolio in the future, including but not limited to: inject funds into the project, support its community building and commercial procurement; contact Experts in the industry provide counseling to incubate projects; introduce more strategic partners and industry experts; contact other companies in the Portfolio for business cooperation and technology development to achieve tactical coordination; participate in pledges to ensure the smooth progress of the token economy; participate in community governance And put forward high-quality governance proposals; play a role as a node validator and so on.
Events are a great way to help projects gain exposure and access to resources. In the past year, IOSG has been the most eye-catching The event is our 7th Old Friends Reunion IOSG DeFi Summit. On October 26th, Old Friends Reunion successfully concluded in Shanghai 1933 Old Workshop. IOSG joined hands with imToken, DeBank and Aave to create an unprecedented audio-visual feast.
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More than 1,000 people participated in the one-day sharing, and the event gathered at the scene Well-known blockchain developers, investors, developers and community enthusiasts at home and abroad invited more than 60 heavyweight guests, including Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum, Illia Polosukhin, co-founder of NEAR, founder of Aave Stani Kulechov, founder and CEO, Matt, co-founder of tBTC/Keep, pin Gün Sirer, founder of Avalanche, and Dawn Song, founder of Oasis Labs.
Our Friends Club has become a well-known platform in the industry And gatherings, gathered many founders, developers, investors. Here they can exchange ideas and insights with each other, discuss market conditions, and even incubate projects and promote cooperation. We also hope that IOSG can make the Old Friends Club a top industry event at home and abroad. It can not only promote project incubation and community growth, but also bring endless momentum to the industry. In the new year, IOSG will carry on the past and usher in the future, continue to do a good job in the output of our research content, support project community management, organize well-organized activities, strengthen Portfolio brand building, and do a good job in empowering the next invested and upcoming projects. Prepare.
The future of blockchain and cryptocurrency is never short of sparks, discover it, accompany it, and help it , at the right time, it will light up the entire sky.
--- IOSG Ventures team
At present, the blockchain and cryptocurrency industry is still in the early stages of barbaric growth, so it is not Lack of short-term wealth-making opportunities and myths. Arbitrage opportunities generated by information asymmetry and speculative opportunities to chase hot spots are everywhere in the industry. However, we believe that this short-term opportunity for quick money may cause investors to be lazy in discovering opportunities with real long-term value, thus losing the possibility of continuous positive evolution. As Zhang Lei of Hillhouse Capital said, "Some things cannot be done, so don't do them from the beginning."
In the past year, the word we have said most is rejection , because we don't want to make certain choices and decisions ourselves just because others do the same. We will ask ourselves, is this a choice that gives us peace of mind, or is it a choice that we are forced to make in a hurry under the hustle and bustle? Of course, we also believe that the short-term non-consensus will definitely become a consensus. On the journey of building a long-term consensus, which founders we have met are looking for founders who truly love the community and create products, start a business and grow with them, and stick to the cypherpunk Web 3.0 The original intention of the world.
For many funds, structuring investments at the start of a bear market Combination and in-depth research are challenges, and we are fortunate to have established a core investment research team. Through each of our project discussion meetings, the industry research insights of each subdivided track, starting from the founders and developers to build products and communities, continue to explore a maverick encryption investment paradigm. We also look forward to the emergence of more and more professional and respected encryption funds in the Eastern market in the future, and we will continue to work hard for this expectation.
This article is thanks to Dong Mo and Deniz Omer who have provided silent support behind the scenes , Marvin, Pan Zhixiong.
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