A16z: the encryption industry has gone through three cycles

Original author: a16z partner & NBSP; Chris Dixon, Eddy Lazzarin

原文翻译：星球日报  Azuma

Some long-time encryption researchers believe that our industry is evolving in a cyclical fashion, alternating between "market activity" and "encryption winter." So far, the encryption industry has gone through three cycles. The first cycle peaked in 2011; The second was in 2013 and the third in 2017.

These cycles may seem chaotic, but they have a basic internal order, which is generally characterized by:

· at first, the price of bitcoin and other cryptographic assets began to rise;

· people's interest in cryptocurrency is growing, and the popularity of social media is increasing;

· the industry welcomes more new faces, who will contribute new ideas and technologies;

· more projects or start-ups appear;

· new projects and companies will launch new products, which will further inspire more people and eventually lead to the next cycle.

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Some facts and figures support this view. Interesting thing is, you have probably heard), in our conversations with multiple encryption project founder of hundreds of times, we often hear such a story: "I am" in 2011, 2013 or 2017 "for the first time I heard encryption currency, prices at that time, everyone is talking about it. At first, I thought it only about money, but then I started to read the white paper and some blog posts, and to know more about the potential of the technology, and finally fell in love with it."

We recently ran a project inside a16z to see if the data would show the same state. With the help of our cryptographic data scientist Eddy Lazzarin, we analyzed nearly a decade of data, including comments on Reddit subsections related to cryptocurrencies, code submissions on Github, and data from Pitchbook. The results are shown in the figure below.

Period 1:2009-2012

The first cycle in the cryptocurrency industry peaked in 2011. Until then, even the most ardent bitcoin enthusiasts will only consider it an interesting experiment and unlikely to be of practical use. Later, entrepreneurs began to realize that you could use cryptocurrency to start a business. It was then that many of today's biggest trading platforms, miners and wallets were launched. & have spent

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& have spent Note: Odaily daily planet in the chart above five data for BTC in turn down on the price (the top orange), developers activities (blue), entrepreneurial activity (green, the main track encryption domain company within the scope of the specific time to complete the total number of financing for the first time), social media activity (purple), encryption, monetary value (the bottom of the orange).

It is worth noting that development, entrepreneurial activity and social media discussions continue after prices have started to fall. As we will see later, this pattern also holds for the other two cycles.

The second cycle: 2012-2016

The second cycle peaked in late 2013, probably the point at which most non-tech workers first heard about bitcoin. During the week, about 10 times as many developers and projects entered. It was also at this time that many important projects were formally born or financed, especially ethereum, which indirectly triggered the third boom of 2017. A key feature of the encryption cycle is that each cycle sows the seeds that drive the next cycle. & have spent & have spent

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Third cycle: 2016-2019

The third cycle peaked in 2017, when the broader significance of cryptocurrencies began to attract mainstream attention. The number of developers and startups increased again about tenfold during the week. Encryption from the edge of the industry gradually developed into a real emerging industry.

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When the three cycles are viewed in the same chart (see chart below), growth in all key indicators, while erratic, is consistent over the long term. During the three cycles, the cagr of the four indicators were: BTC price (196.4%), developer activity (74.4%), entrepreneurial activity (53.9%), and social media activity (207.5%).

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In the figure above, the most ascending project Logo shows the typical high quality projects in each cycle. The third cycle spawned dozens of exciting projects in a wide range of areas, including payments, finance, gaming, infrastructure and web applications. Many of these projects will be launched in the near future, perhaps driving a fourth encryption cycle.

Over the past decade, many new ideas, technologies, and projects have emerged that are fundamental drivers of innovation in the encryption industry. Technologists and entrepreneurs will continue to drive encryption for years to come. We look forward to seeing their results.

Source link:https://www.odaily.com/post/5150251

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