Barclays: US-Iran conflict unlikely to end in the short term, 'neither war nor peace' deadlock may persist until the end of Trump's term

BlockBeats news, November 13 — Barclays noted in its latest report that the probability of the US-Iran conflict ending within the next year is less than 50%, with "protractedization" having become the baseline scenario. Analyst Michael McLean believes both sides see time as being on their side, making a substantive agreement in the short term highly unlikely; the US may maintain a "neither war nor peace" stalemate with Iran and may even need to prepare for the conflict to persist until the end of Trump's term.

Barclays summarizes the situation facing the US into three paths: further escalation, prolonged maintenance of the status quo, and withdrawal. Among these, protractedization is the most likely, meaning the two sides continue intermittent reciprocal strikes, nuclear negotiations make little progress, and the US continues to control the Strait of Hormuz. The report argues that Middle East oil exports have now recovered to about 85% of pre-war levels, and the global economy's capacity to absorb oil price shocks has strengthened, reducing the urgency for all parties to end the conflict quickly.

Historical data also shows that the longer a war lasts, the lower the probability of it ending in the short term. Barclays cites data from 95 interstate wars between 1823 and 2003, stating that wars that have lasted 6 to 12 months have about a 57% probability of ending within one year; for a war that has already lasted eight months, the average remaining duration is 1.8 years.

By contrast, further US military escalation faces risks such as Iranian retaliation and opposition from Gulf states, while a unilateral withdrawal could cause the US to lose control of the Strait of Hormuz and trigger a crisis of regional influence and international credibility. Barclays believes both escalation and withdrawal face significant obstacles, making maintaining the status quo the more likely choice.