Anthropic IPO sees heated scramble in the primary market, while a certain on-chain whale continues to short, dumping $42.8 million.

BlockBeats news, November 12 - Subscription demand for Anthropic's IPO is reported to have reached several times the number of shares planned for issuance. Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter, said institutional subscription interest significantly exceeds the scale of available shares. A Nasdaq announcement shows that Anthropic is expected to determine the offering price on November 18 Eastern Time and begin trading under the ticker ANT on November 19.

The latest prospectus still sets the offering price range at $70 to $78 per share, with 825 million shares planned for public offering, corresponding to fundraising of approximately $57.75 billion to $64.35 billion. Based on the upper limit of the offering price and the potential diluted shares disclosed in the prospectus, the fully diluted valuation is approximately $1.40 trillion. However, the Financial Times previously reported that underwriters are considering raising the offering valuation to $1.5 trillion or more. The $26 billion concurrent private placement involving seven companies including Google and Nvidia is counted separately.

According to TradingBeats monitoring, as of noon today, three active Anthropic-related contracts on Hyperliquid had implied valuations concentrated around $1.8 trillion.

- Trade.xyz's xyz:ANT was quoted at $103.39, about 32.6% higher than the $78 upper limit of the offering price, corresponding to a fully diluted valuation of approximately $1.86 trillion;

- Entropy's io:ANTH was quoted at 1799.5 points, corresponding to a fully diluted valuation of approximately $1.80 trillion;

- Paragon's para:ANTH was quoted at $103.19, corresponding to a fully diluted valuation of approximately $1.86 trillion.

The three markets combined had about $101 million in 24-hour trading volume, with open interest notional value of about $304 million. Compared with about $250 million in trading volume before noon yesterday, trading scale fell about 60%, but OI still rose from about $294 million to $304 million. Previously, ANT on Trade.xyz had fallen to $90.37 after the offering range was disclosed, then rebounded.

The largest short whale, 0xecc8, holds a combined Anthropic short position of about $42.82 million across two markets, with unrealized profit of about $1.6 million. The address continued to add to shorts today, with about $766,000 in new trades on Trade.xyz and at least about $929,000 in new short positions on Entropy.

The largest long executed trades on Entropy. Account 0xc0f7 currently holds about $17.02 million in long positions, with unrealized profit of about $286,000. Net position increase over the past 24 hours corresponded to about $8.15 million, with at least about $2.75 million in new long positions added in the early hours of today.

IPO predictions on Polymarket continue to heat up. As of midday, the implied probability of Anthropic listing on November 19 US Eastern Time is approximately 85.35%; the probability of the final offering valuation landing between $1.5 trillion and $1.75 trillion has risen to 55.3%, an increase of 26.55 percentage points over 24 hours;

The probability of the first-day closing price being above the offering price has risen to 89%. Another market on first-day closing market cap exceeding $1.5 trillion based on actual circulating shares carries a probability of approximately 44.3%, which differs from the calculation basis of the fully diluted valuation market.

In supplementary news, at 17:00 Beijing Time today, OKX will also adjust the share capital base for Anthropic perpetual contracts from 10 billion shares to approximately 13.116 billion shares. After the adjustment, contract quotes will be divided by 1.311, while position quantities will be multiplied by 1.3116, keeping the notional position value unchanged. Based on the pre-adjustment quote of $137.37, the new basis translates to approximately $104.73, close to Trade.xyz's current quote of $103.39. Binance has not yet adjusted the share capital base for ANTHROPIC.

On valuation, Morningstar analyst Malik Ahmed Khan recently assigned a baseline fair value of $92 per share, approximately 24% above the midpoint offering price of $74, but still below the current on-chain quote of approximately $103 per share.