Jensen Huang's departure probability spikes, 8 large Hyperliquid accounts flood into prediction markets, what kind of arbitrage window emerged after the news?

BlockBeats news, November 12, after U.S. stock market hours, The Wall Street Journal reported that Nvidia's board is preparing to replace Jensen Huang. Following the news, the implied probability on Polymarket of "Jensen Huang formally announcing resignation or being replaced before year-end" rapidly surged from 26.5% to 77%, jumping 50.5 percentage points in 5 minutes, reaching as high as 92.5% in the morning before falling back to approximately 83.5% near midday. Meanwhile, Nvidia contracts on Hyperliquid briefly dropped to $156.14.

According to TradingBeats monitoring, within less than 4 hours of the news breaking, 8 large cross-market traders active on both Polymarket and Hyperliquid had already participated in predicting Jensen Huang's fate, purchasing approximately $102,000 in cumulative positions. Among them, the year-end departure market saw approximately $3.29 million in trading volume over the past 24 hours, accounting for about 80% of the market's cumulative trading volume.

It is understood that this market settles based on whether a formal announcement of resignation or replacement is made before year-end. Even if the actual departure occurs later than year-end, as long as a formal announcement is made in advance, it may still satisfy the Yes settlement condition.

Some Hyperliquid traders had already completed precise "harvesting" and exits within the extremely short window before odds peaked. Additionally, some have set up two-way hedges combining "contracts + predictions."

After the news was released, Polymarket also briefly