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After the CPI release, the probability of the Fed raising rates by 50 basis points in December rose to 15.3%.

BlockBeats news, November 10th, following the release of October inflation data in the United States, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in December remains at 0%, with an 84.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike, and a 15.3% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point increase (previously 1.1%).


The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by January next year is 0%, with a 43.9% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point hike, a 48.8% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point increase, and a 7.4% chance of a cumulative 75 basis point hike.

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Core CPI at 0.2% month-over-month means the Fed stays put, while 0.3% triggers a rate hike.
The current interest rate hike probability is around 50%, with benign inflation data potentially prompting a wait-and-see approach. However, the hawkish stance still introduces uncertainty into the future policy outlook.
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