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Strategist: CPI Exceeding Expectations May Seal the Deal for a Fed Rate Hike in December

BlockBeats news, November 10 - BeiChen Lin, Senior Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, stated in a report that even a slight upside surprise in the October US CPI data could solidify a December rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Following a strong employment report and other signs of economic resilience, the Fed will have little patience for inflation. Beyond the headline inflation figures, another key focus will be the breadth of inflationary pressures. This will play a critical role in determining the path of future monetary policy decisions. Mortgage rates remain elevated, weighing on the housing market, which will help curb some inflationary pressures.

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Core CPI at 0.2% month-over-month means the Fed stays put, while 0.3% triggers a rate hike.
The current interest rate hike probability is around 50%, with benign inflation data potentially prompting a wait-and-see approach. However, the hawkish stance still introduces uncertainty into the future policy outlook.
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