Blue wave incoming? With only 19% of votes counted, Democrats' probability of winning key Senate race in crucial state already exceeds 90%

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of "Democrats controlling both the Senate and the House" has risen to 99.15%. The day before the election, this figure was 75.5%. In the three closely watched Senate races in Texas, Michigan, and South Carolina, market probabilities have all entered the final stretch above 95%.

In Texas, the probability of "Democratic candidate Talarico winning" rose from 74.5% before the election to 99.25%, up 24.75 percentage points in 24 hours. According to Associated Press data, about 55% of votes have been counted in Texas. Democratic state Representative James Talarico has received 3.395 million votes (58.9%), while Republican candidate and state Attorney General Ken Paxton has received 2.285 million votes (39.6%).

In Michigan, the probability of "Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed winning" rose from 80.5% before the election to 97.35%. Only about 18.4% of votes have been counted in the state. El-Sayed has received 492,000 votes (54.3%), while Republican candidate Mike Rogers has received 400,000 votes (44.0%).

In South Carolina, the change was the largest. The probability of "Democratic candidate Annie Andrews winning" surged overnight from 31.5% before the election to 99.95%, an increase of 68.45 percentage points. About 87.7% of votes have been counted in the state. Andrews has received 918,000 votes (51.0%), while Republican incumbent Senator Darline Graham has received 843,000 votes (46.8%). Andrews leads by about 75,000 votes, or about 4.2 percentage points, and CBS and NBC have projected Andrews as the winner. The last time South Carolina elected a Democrat to a Senate seat was in 1998.