US midterm elections add market uncertainty, US stock futures roughly flat

BlockBeats news, November 3 — As U.S. voters cast their ballots on Election Day, control of both chambers of Congress hangs in the balance, and investors are also assessing the rising risks facing AI trades, with U.S. stock futures broadly flat. S&P 500 futures were little changed, while Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.3%, recovering some of their earlier losses.

Tech stocks attempted a cautious rebound after the sector had just entered correction territory the previous day. The election adds another layer of uncertainty to an already fragile market environment. Prediction market Polymarket currently estimates the probability of Democrats winning control of the House at about 95% and the Senate at about 77%, implying Democrats could sweep both chambers of Congress. As investors adjust positions around the election outcome, the divergence between polls and prediction-market expectations has once again drawn attention.

Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report, said: "For all the forecasts and market reactions to tonight's election results, investors need to remember one key data point — although past performance does not guarantee future results, since 1950, over the past 76 years, the S&P 500 has never been below its Election Day level 12 months after a midterm election ends. This is the most important point for clients to focus on."