Analysis: The crypto market has shifted from a slow decline to accelerated liquidation, and a rebound may be difficult to sustain amid multiple bearish factors.

BlockBeats news, November 15 - According to Bloomberg, Bitcoin fell to nearly $62,000 over the weekend, hitting a new low since July. Unlike previous sudden crashes, most of this round of selling occurred during relatively light trading periods, with prices continuously declining, and leveraged liquidations only noticeably accelerating in recent days. Many small-cap tokens have erased years of gains, and increased institutional participation and the proliferation of spot ETFs have failed to stop this decline.

Spot buying has weakened, while US Treasury yields and the dollar have strengthened. From October 30 to November 13, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of nearly $3 billion. Meanwhile, persistently high inflation has raised expectations for further Fed tightening, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising above 5%, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets like Bitcoin. The Binance hack incident has reignited market concerns about trading platform security, and the US midterm election results have also added policy uncertainty.

Anthropic's IPO may divert capital, but the scale remains unclear. Joshua Lim, co-head of markets at FalconX, noted that market discussion of the causes of the decline centers on two aspects: stablecoin balances outflowing nearly $20 billion over the past month, and the potential liquidity impact of Anthropic's IPO. Bloomberg noted that the IPO has received substantial subscriptions, and some investors may be selling other holdings including crypto assets to raise funds, but it is currently impossible to determine how much capital has flowed directly from the crypto market into this IPO.

Bitcoin had previously rebounded from below $65,000 in August to above $87,000 in late September after the US Treasury announced an expansion of long-term Treasury buybacks, but has now given back most of those gains, with the market refocusing on the yearly low of around $58,000. Ayesha Kiani, Chief Operating Officer of Monarq Asset Management, believes that short-term direction mainly depends on whether institutional demand can stabilize and whether the macro environment can allow risk appetite to recover. Until then, rallies may be difficult to sustain, and market volatility will remain elevated.