Serenity: SIVE has the right fundamentals but a wrong positioning, and should be seen as the next-generation global high-growth laser optics company

BlockBeats News, August 30th: Following Serenity's financial report, the company elaborated on its optimistic view of the 2027-2028 era of Silicon Photonics and High-Volume CPO.

Pluggable Module End: JBL has confirmed the 1.6T LRO and orders in the first half of 2027, ramp-up in the second half, potentially serving multiple hyperscale cloud players. In addition, 3 module manufacturers are evaluating, and 3 are conducting supply assessments;

Reference Design End: Gracecore SCALE has confirmed that customers may include AMD and other hyperscale cloud players' CPO;

External Light Source and Opto-Engine End: POET, O-Net, SemiNex have confirmed, with AEVA as a potential match.

2028 Optical I/O: Ayar Labs has confirmed potential integration with AMD, Alchip, hyperscale cloud ASICs, and NVIDIA NVLink, with Marvell Celestial, Lightmatter, Lightelligence listed as potential customers; concurrently, there may be Apple's next-generation wearable and other TFLN-related projects.

Serenity cited Goldman Sachs data, stating that the total addressable market for CPO will increase from near zero growth to approximately $91 billion by 2028. Morgan Stanley has positioned Sivers alongside LITE and COHR as key laser suppliers for CPO. However, Serenity's criticism of Sivers is equally sharp. The company failed to clearly articulate the economic scale of the optical ramp-up in 2027-2028 to Western and American institutions. Sivers should position itself as the next-generation global high-growth laser optics company targeting hyperscale cloud players, rather than being led by "currently small in revenue and still losing money" hindsight metrics. Sivers should be seen as a highly elastic target for the 1.6T and CPO optical switch in 2027-2028.