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Detailed Breakdown: The Investment Strategy of the "Ultimate YOLOer" in the Stock Market, Serenity

Read this article in 19 Minutes

Digging down five layers along the demand curve, the "Price Discovery Zone" is located where no one is looking.

Article Title: "Decoding the Investment Strategy of WallStreetBets' Top Trader Serenity"
Article Author: nini, Crypto Influencer

You once bought NVIDIA and sold after a 30% gain, feeling quite clever.

Then it surged another 120%, and as you stared at the candlestick chart for five minutes, you grew more and more frustrated.

This is actually the typical behavior of most retail investors.

In 2022, someone did the opposite. Instead of buying NVIDIA, he invested in a company that supplied NVIDIA, a little-known company with a $700 million market cap, 90% of people had never heard of, $AXTI. The stock was priced at $12 at the time but later surged to over $70.

This individual is Serenity, who has gained immense popularity in the investment community this year. Out of the 35 publicly shared picks, 31 have risen with a return of 225 times, even attracting attention from Bloomberg and Reuters for his tweets.

After reading dozens of his posts, I discovered that what he did was completely different from what the public did when they bought NVIDIA.

What did the public do when buying NVIDIA? They checked the PE ratio, looked at the financial report growth rate, read news about the upcoming AI boom, saw that foreign institutional investors were buying, and then placed an order. Even I could do this blindfolded.

What did Serenity do before buying $AXTI?

He started with NVIDIA's GPU and drew an industry chain map. To power the GPU, data centers are needed, which require optical modules. The key component in optical modules is the laser, and the raw material for the laser is called indium phosphide. Then he did something I had never thought of—he checked the global indium phosphide production capacity.

There are only two companies globally capable of large-scale production of indium phosphide substrates, with $AXTI holding a share of one-fourth to one-third.

In other words, as long as AI chips continue to be manufactured, all optical module factories will have to source raw materials from these two companies. And this situation is unlikely to change in the short term because the production cycle from establishing a factory to full production is measured in years.

Then he flipped through the company's patent documents, customer list, production capacity ceiling, and upstream sources. After conducting a thorough investigation, he finally placed the order.

Perilla Leaf Theory

He gave this strategy a name: Perilla Leaf Theory.

He said, when you go to a high-end sushi restaurant, everyone is eyeing that piece of bluefin tuna belly. But the ingredient that the kitchen absolutely cannot run out of is perilla leaf. Without the bluefin tuna, a few dishes may be removed from the menu, but without the perilla leaf, the entire restaurant may have to close its doors.

In the AI industry chain, NVIDIA, Microsoft, and OpenAI are the bluefin tuna belly. The perilla leaf is a material name that few people have even heard of, a niche company with a market value of over ten billion that no analysts cover, one of only two global suppliers of a part that, if missing, would halt the entire chain.

Breaking down this theory, it actually consists of three steps.

Step One: Start from the top-level demand and question each layer down

AI Boom → GPU demand surges → GPU manufacturing requires lithography machines → The core component of a lithography machine is the lens → Who globally manufactures lenses? Only Zeiss. Keep going. Who supplies the special glass for Zeiss's lenses? Perhaps another small Japanese factory.

Ask the same question at each level: For this level to function, what is something in the next level that cannot be substituted by others?

Most people might stop at the second level and start discussing whether NVIDIA's PE ratio is expensive. But Serenity breaks it down to the fifth or sixth level, continuously tracing back to the smallest market cap, most unfamiliar name company.

Step Two: Count the players in the segment where this company operates

If there are three or more players, pass! Because there is sufficient competition, and no one has pricing power.

Two players, keep a close eye.

One player or a virtual monopoly, that's the one.

The logic is simple. As AI expands, more money flows upstream along the industry chain. As the tide rises, all boats rise with it.

But if there is only one boat in a certain segment, not only does it rise with the tide, it can turn around and threaten downstream players, saying, "You have to use me, I call the shots."

Step Three: Before Buying, Send Out the Analysis and Wait for the Backlash

No need to seek approval; we are going to do the opposite and specifically invite knowledgeable individuals to argue against it.

Some pointed out where his logic jumped too quickly, and he went back to rehash. Some told him he had missed a supplier, and he went back to fill it in. Until all loopholes were sealed, and no one could criticize anymore, he placed the order.

He himself has said, ChatGPT won't argue back with you. If you feed the analysis to AI, it will always agree with you. So, you have to present it to a real person.

$SIVE: Second Validation of the Same Method

He has used this method more than once.

In 2025, he heavily invested in $SIVE, a Swedish semiconductor company that focuses on laser technology. With a market value of over a dozen billion USD, priced in Swedish Krona, hardly covered by U.S. analysts.

Why did he target it? Because the next-generation optical interconnect architecture for data centers, called CPO, has a physical flaw where silicon, the material, cannot emit light. If silicon can't emit light, how can it transmit data? It must use an external laser module. $SIVE produces high-power continuous wave lasers, which serve as the external light source for CPO.

He went through the same chain again: NVIDIA GPU → Data Center Expansion → CPO Optical Interconnect → Surging External Light Source Demand → $SIVE is one of the few globally capable of supplying.

After buying in, this stock nearly increased twentyfold.

RPI: Wall Street Overlooked New Demand

Speaking of his post on Raspberry Pi in February 2026.

RPI, a UK company, produces low-cost, mini-computers, selling a board for $35, mainly used by kids for learning programming. Wall Street analysts unanimously expected: 14% revenue growth for the full year.

He wrote another figure: 55%.

How did he calculate this? He delved into the developer community. Numerous AI developers on GitHub began deploying AI agents using Raspberry Pi, and the growth curve of related repositories is almost vertical.

He aggregated discussions on various forums, developer growth trends, and then worked backward. The Wall Street revenue model completely failed to account for this new demand, missing at least 40 percentage points.

Within two days of the tweet, RPI's stock price rose by nearly 90%. Two months later, when the financial report was released, the actual growth was 58%. The Wall Street consensus was 14%.

Three cases, $AXTI, $SIVE, RPI, share the exact same underlying logic.

Find a position in the industry chain where pricing is not yet in place but the demand has already been secured.

Three Most Common Pitfalls for Retail Investors

At this point, I want to talk about the three most common pitfalls retail investors encounter when buying stocks, and what exactly this method can solve.

First Pitfall: Chasing Highs and Selling Lows, Always Holding the Bag

Seeing a sector or a stock hot, everyone talking about it in the news, and then jumping in. However, after jumping in, it starts to drop, and unable to hold, you sell. After you sell, it rises again, and you are left feeling confused...

Why? Because when something has become so hot that even someone like me, who doesn't do in-depth research, has heard about it, its pricing has already been fully reflected by the market.

First and second-tier companies, such as NVIDIA, Microsoft, TSMC, are being watched by analysts worldwide, and funds from around the globe are buying. Why would I think I'm faster than anyone else?

Serenity's approach is to dig deeper. Digging below the third tier, where analysts don't cover, institutions don't hold positions, and the market cap is too small with poor liquidity for them to enter. The pricing in these areas has plenty of loopholes to exploit.

This solves one problem: you don't have to compete with the world's smartest people for speed; you slowly climb in a race where no one is competing with you.

Second Pitfall: Panicking when it Drops, Panicking when it Rises

The reason for panic is actually simple, you don't know how much what you bought is really worth.

You may have bought because it looked like it was going to rise. So, if it looks like it's going to drop, will you sell? Without your own assessment anchor, your mindset will collapse at the slightest market movement.

The Serenity approach forces you to answer three questions before placing an order: Is this step irreplaceable? How many suppliers are there globally? Is downstream demand rising or falling?

Once you answer these three questions, you have an independent logic anchor. A short-term dip should not cause panic unless the answers to those three questions have changed.

This solves one problem: Price movements are not based on faith but on the industry chain diagram in your hands.

The Third Pitfall: Everyone sees the same information

PE ratio, ROE, financial report growth rate, northbound funds, top buyers and sellers list. When you open any stock trading app, everyone sees the same interface. All this information is already reflected in the stock price.

What does Serenity look at? Patent databases, supplier directories, customs export data, the volume of developer discussions in industry forums, and technical roadmap comparisons in academic papers.

These things are free and public, but most retail investors have never looked at them in their lives.

This solves one problem: When your source of information is different from others, your judgment may differ from others.

There are also things this method cannot solve

Of course, this method is not foolproof, and there are several things it cannot solve.

· First, Serenity has stepped on mines himself. UPWK -35%, HIMS -50%, CRCL -45%. Being right about the method does not mean every trade is correct. No matter how accurately the industry chain is drawn, issues with company operations, sudden industry shifts, or changes in macro policies can all lead to accidents.

· Second, he is anonymous. A former AI scientist, a Nature paper author, rejected offers from NVIDIA – all these titles are self-proclaimed, and no one can verify them. He buys microcap stocks; with just one tweet, he can boost the stock, and followers jumping in can further drive up the price. He has never disclosed when he sells.

· Third, his entire position is based on two predictions: CPO will become the sole technical roadmap for data centers, and humanoid robots will reach a billion-unit scale. If either of these is overturned, the logic behind many of his targets will collapse.

His approach tells you this position has hit a bottleneck, but whether the bottleneck itself will always be there is for you to judge.

If You Look at Crypto with It?

I tried to use this approach to look at the Crypto track.

Start breaking down from the Meme Launchpad. Platforms like Pump.fun → What are they dependent on? The liquidity of the AMM protocol → Where does the liquidity of the AMM protocol come from? Keep digging further down.

In plain language, this method can give you something: When you are used to digging from the top down, you won't just FOMO into something that is pumping. You will instinctively ask, what layer is it in? Who is its upstream? Who is the upstream of the upstream? Where is that inevitable link that only one or two companies are doing and everyone can't bypass?

I thought for a long time, reviewed for a long time, and suddenly I felt enlightened.

It's not that I found some kind of wealth password, but because I suddenly realized that every purchase made by many people, whether it's a stock or a coin, all revolves around the first layer of the industry chain. Whatever is trending, everyone's decision radius does not exceed that custom page of the trading software.

So, Stock God Serenity's way of playing is not to directly tell you what to buy, let alone tell you to FOMO along with him.

What we need to do is another thing: Pull you out of the first layer where you are crowded with everyone, and let you see that the pricing on the fifth layer has not yet been discovered by the market.