Oil prices continue to rise, Smart Money Inflation Forecast predicts 3.5% year-over-year inflation in the United States for July.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, a smart money participant has placed a $715 bet on "Is U.S. Annual Inflation Rate for July 3.5%?" with an average buy-in probability of 24.1%. The current probability for "Yes" is 24.5%.

0x1c3e2422 has also placed a $715 bet, with the most relevant market category being inflation, resulting in a net profit of $6500. Out of 46 settled trades in this category, the participant has a win rate of 23/46 (50%), with 13 trades meeting the criteria of buying below $0.8 and selling above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.151-$0.3), the median historical investment amount is $394.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the July Consumer Price Index on August 12 at 8:30 am (ET), which is 8:30 pm Beijing time. This data measures the inflation over the past 12 months up to July and settles on a year-on-year basis with the unadjusted CPI-U. The July data will determine whether the cooling off is a continuation of a trend or a one-off event due to a temporary drop in energy prices.

The Cleveland Fed's model as of July 22 predicts a 0.04% month-over-month increase and a 3.37% year-over-year increase in CPI for July, which closely aligns with the official value of around 3.4%. The core CPI did not increase month-over-month in June, with housing costs only rising by 0.1%, indicating that price pressure excluding energy is still easing.

Upside variables are mainly concentrated in energy and tariffs. Data shows that the average gasoline price in the U.S. has risen from $3.943 per gallon a week ago to $4.091, while Brent crude oil has surged above $97 amidst U.S.-Iran tensions and risks to the Hormuz Strait transit. However, the latest U.S. crude and gasoline inventories unexpectedly increased, providing a temporary cushion to prices.

Note: Based on their past trading behavior, this trader is not necessarily betting on the actual outcome of the event but may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss behavior at certain points after opening positions.

Account:
0x1c3e24224559bf9cc0f8b895a305f2f30372176d
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