The pattern is turbulent, find the law of cycle and structure

Original author: Raoul Pal, CEO and co-founder of Real Vision

Original compilation: Kxp, Rhythm BlockBeats

Hello, I'm Raoul Pal, CEO and Co-Founder of Real Vision. Today, I will be speaking with you as the CEO and Founder of Global Macro Investor. We are in an extraordinarily complex world now, facing the worst supply shock since World War II, coupled with the spread of the global epidemic, we can't help but wonder if there will be a recession in the future.

In the next two weeks, Real Vision will invite authoritative analysts and money managers to participate in the dialogue, including hedge fund manager Dwight Anderson , oil trader Pierre Andurand and ARK founder Cathie Wood. Together we will explore a variety of key topics and exchange ideas and perspectives.

Next, I will share my own views with you with the help of a lot of information and graphics. The first problem is inflation. From the figure below, we can see that the current inflation rate is 8%. It's hard to understand why such a number is happening in a clearly deflationary world, is it because too much money is being printed?

I have covered this in other Real Vision articles Covered the matter at length and wrote extensively on inflation in Global Macro Investor and Macro Insiders. My point is that the persistent inflation you see on this graph in the 1970s was actually caused by demographic change, that is, the massive population growth of the baby boomer generation, which caused a demand shock. Meanwhile, the Arab oil embargoes of 1973 and 1974 and the Iran crisis of 1979 also triggered supply shocks.

But today is not the same as in the past, the new crown pandemic has caused a supply shock. A large number of factories closed and goods stopped, so people had to obtain raw materials and commodities at higher prices, so people stopped investing in commodities. So even now that the world is reopening, we don't have enough capacity to produce goods on a large scale. In addition, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has further exacerbated this trend. Next, I will share with you the future development trend of our inflation, and the impact of low growth rate and low inflation rate on investment portfolio, world economy and asset market.

The graph below reflects the year-on-year change rate of commodity prices. Although the inflation rate is rising, in fact, the commodity inflation rate has been falling rapidly recently and will be reflected in the CPI. The graph shows the year-over-year change for all commodities, but the one we've been interested in is really the food category.

People keep talking about global food shortages and I may not have time in this video Covering this as it would take a lot of time to investigate, but I'll be exploring it with Dwight Anderson in a future video. In my opinion, there will definitely be some shortages of food, which may depend on whether the West will use food as a weapon against Russia, or whether the flow of food can be guaranteed. Today, the year-on-year rate of change in food prices has declined, but that doesn't mean CPI will also decline. On the other hand, the global food supply is also starting to return to normal. However, China's current policy still brings many variables to the world economy, because we don't know how long its blockade measures will last, and whether the shutdown of ports will affect the global supply chain.

Now we turn our attention to the United States, and the chart below shows the US rail car load. From this we can see that the loading volume has dropped significantly year-on-year, which indicates that the ISM will be well below 50, but the specific situation will be analyzed later.

ISM means Institute for Supply Management Survey index, which can reflect changes in GDP to a certain extent. If the ISM index is below 50, then the growth of the US economy will be around 1%. Once it reaches 47, it indicates that the economy has stalled and is close to recession. Changes in rail car loads have indicated that the ISM is trending lower, while transport issues have eased. In my view, as the population aging rate and debt ratio increase, the growth trend of the US economy will slow down, accompanied by a decline in the inflation rate.

The next one is the ISM inventory graph, and you can see that inventory levels have remained high. Inventory can be sold if demand slows. The graph below it, which shows ISM versus ISM new orders minus inventory, is also meaningful. From this we can see that inventory levels are too high compared to new orders. Over time, we will see a liquidation of the inventory, suggesting an ISM below 50. Now, this trend has not been reversed and may continue. And, we're not sure whether we're headed for a recession or if we're headed for a growth shock.

My core assumption has always been a growth shock because it is easier to predict than a recession. But as you'll see, there are plenty of signs that a recession is likely. Regardless, it will change the structure of markets and the way we think about things, most notably inflation.

Inflation is actually affected by demand. If demand decreases, commodity prices will fall. The next graph shows the proportion of inventory in new orders and how it relates to the CPI. It can be seen that the CPI has been surging recently due to the impact of war and supply shocks, while the number of inventories and new orders in the United States has been falling.

This trend indicates that inflation is about to Usher in a twist. We saw a similar situation in 2008, when oil prices hit $140 a barrel, accompanied by a huge increase in soft commodity prices, very similar to now. This is mainly due to the impact of demand growth in China, which is a demand shock rather than a supply shock.

Now, if you go back and look at this graph, you can see that in 2008 we experienced the same thing, the inventory decline in new orders , and the inflation rate rises. I think that's happening now as well, the price paid by the ISM, the price that manufacturers pay for their products, has started to see a pullback.

Right now, it's still in an unstable range, although not as worrying level, but it has been able to explain that we will see a slowdown in CPI. The peak in CPI readings is expected to come around June, after which the CPI will stabilize.

I think there is a chance that CPI will be lower than market expectations, mainly due to demand destruction. At the same time, this is one thing that most people are aware of, they tend to just focus on the supply equation and assume steady demand.

If wages do not increase and company prices do not increase, then the increase in costs will lead to demand destruction, and the increase will be used as a benefit to consumers and businesses a tax. The chart below shows gasoline prices in the United States, which have seen impressive increases in recent times. Not only that, the prices of a range of goods including food have increased. That means people will have to spend more on basic goods and services and less on other things, and some restaurants are closing down.

The following picture is from Alpine Macro, they are based on the US dollar, oil prices and interest rate levels proposed a growth tax and contrasted it with the ISM. Recent developments are worrying, with the ISM index threatening to fall to 42, triggering a full-blown recession. Although the data is still fluctuating, the trend of recession has begun to be obvious, and people are not prepared for it.

China's credit in the past year Pulse has had a dominant impact on the world economy. Even though China has been tightening credit and experiencing a recession, it still leads the world economy, which also means that the United States will have a full-blown recession.

Because of inflation, Europe economy is on the verge of recession. They are struggling with energy issues and will experience periods of high prices for an extended period of time. Of course, these are all sacrifices that must be made in extraordinary times.

The figure below shows the year-on-year change chart of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). We can see that the index has been declining sharply recently and has approached Zero, there is a possibility of a further decline in the future. But the good thing is that the graph shows the year-on-year rate of change, and we've been in a growth phase in terms of the index itself. This suggests that maybe we won't have a recession, or we may have already had a growth shock, as recessions typically follow. If the ECRI does not decline, then we may indeed have entered a plateau, which will be seen in the next six months.

The following The graph shows residential fixed investment as a percentage of total fixed investment. With most of us stuck at home during the COVID-19 pandemic, we started renovating our own homes and replacing old furniture. This also raised the share of residential fixed investment, which lifted the ISM index. Now, however, this growth is retreating, as evidenced by multiple forward-looking indicators.

Next we can look at the United States and Changes in sentiment among small businesses in many countries around the world. Some small businesses were forced to go bankrupt during the COVID-19 period. Fortunately, the state introduced tax cuts in the later period to help some small businesses tide over the difficulties. And now that the tax breaks have stopped and costs are climbing, that optimism is fading. Going forward, I expect this sentiment to continue to decline, and the ISM to follow suit.

But when I see home sentiment , the situation is even more worrying. As the cost of living rises and fiscal measures are lifted, people are unable to cope with the high cost of credit and savings are shrinking. If things go on like this, the consumer economy will become more and more depressed.

Similarly, this situation is common in countries all over the world It's all going on, and the high cost of living and the cost of debt are unaffordable. For example, it can be seen from the chart below of the year-on-year change rate of real income in the United States that people's real income has fallen to the bottom, and the increase in inflation rate and wages cannot fill this gap at all. Our labor force participation rate has been declining for decades because of demographics. I've talked a lot about this in my Retirement Crisis video and many others, and I've written a lot about it over the years.

Even if wages increase, the aggregate Nor has demand increased. People often only see the increase in the amount of wages, but do not notice that real wages are still negative. Moreover, only about half of the population saw wage increases, while the remaining half were either unemployed or had no wage change. As a result, the U.S. economy has had no net growth in aggregate demand at all.

Another serious problem is the explosive growth of mortgage rates, as we can see from the chart below we just experienced the highest level of mortgage rates in history increase. Obviously, this is not a good thing, and it also leads to a decline in fixed investment in household dwellings, which in turn leads to a weak economy.

This chart from TopdownCharts is a good chart showing mortgage servicing Cost vs. ISM. From this we can see that the ISM is at risk of a sharp decline, which suggests that the economy's future growth will be slower than everyone expects.

Goldman Sachs issued a year-on-year change in financial conditions index From the table, it can be seen that with the gradual tightening of financial conditions, such as credit spreads, the ISM will also drop to around 50, and economic growth will also be greatly affected.

The next picture shows PPI -- The producer price index, the price at which manufacturers buy raw materials, has risen a lot. This chart has the data inverted and provides an estimate for the next 18 months.

We can see from the figure that The PPI will keep rising for the next 18 months, suggesting that the ISM will collapse on the basis of rising prices. This is mainly due to the reduction in profit margins, so companies have reduced spending and reduced the purchase of commodities, thereby easing commodity prices. So I began to pay attention to the trend of oil prices and think about its possible impact.

The problem is that I made the video on April 25th and you guys didn't see it until a week later, in the middle of that the price of oil may have come out a lot The change. But I'm not talking about short-term moves here, I'm talking about whether oil can get back to $70. It seems possible to me, and a drop in oil prices will also lead to a drop in CPI.

The same phenomenon has also appeared in European and Asian countries. Now the economic indicators of most countries in the world are declining, which also makes the global manufacturing PMI lower. and entered into recession again. Among them, the situation in the United States is even better than other countries due to the continuous strengthening of the US dollar.

The market is also very good at predicting business cycles Excellent, this is also the reason for the price movement of the asset. Based on this, I have built my own investment framework, which includes factors such as long-term cycles, debt, demographics, deflation, globalization, technology, and business cycles. After building such a framework, we can analyze the trend of asset prices. The picture below is a comparison of the S&P 500 Index and the ISM Index. The trends of the two indexes fit together surprisingly. This is because stocks, like assets, are cyclical.

The S&P 500 is around 4200 points , which means that the ISM will drop to 50 points. In the period ahead, the S&P 500 may have another 10% to 15% decline, and this will mean that the ISM will be below 47, which is a sign of economic recession.

Although the stock market has been in decline, people seem to be more concerned about the speed of its changes, and the cyclical changes in the US dollar also play an important role. When the dollar rises, the business cycle falls; when the business cycle falls, the dollar rises again. People have been paying attention to changes in interest rates, but in fact interest rates are only one factor affecting the value of the dollar. Fund flows and mergers and acquisitions are both important factors affecting the dollar. Among them, the business cycle is highly correlated with the dollar.

I often say that bond is truth, But looking at it now, bonds have coincided with the ISM trend unprecedentedly. Typically, they tend to provide some forward-looking information. The current situation may come from changes in the situation in Russia and Ukraine, and the market is still reacting to it.

The 1970s and our present The situation is very similar, when the embargo on Arab oil pushed up the price of oil, as it is now in Russia. Similarly, the CPI index also rose rapidly, jumping from 3% to 12%. Since then, the global economy has stalled and the ISM has fallen to an all-time low as demand collapses as it cannot cope with supply shocks.

Bond yields plummeted again, but Yields climbed again in the late 1970s due to the supply of Iranian oil. But unlike now, when the baby boomers came into the labor market and stimulated demand, but now our demand is growing continuously, and there will be no such cliff-like rise again.

I will then be discussing the availability of merchandise with Dwight Anderson and Pierre Andurand. I think their point is that supply issues in the commodity will lead to demand destruction and a recession while technology and investment in the industry start trying to build additional capacity.

Now, everyone is concerned about the Fed's next move. They've improved 25 basis points, but that's not enough, they need to improve by 11 times. However, the bond market already does that for them, so we don't need a central bank. Today, the cost of capital is rising all over the world, and the rising mortgage interest rates have greatly increased the cost of debt for people, so no one cares about the Fed's funds rate.

Even so, the Fed has its own balance sheet, the white line and the area shown inside the box. During these periods, the Fed's balance sheet was relatively stable and there was no quantitative easing. In 2010, the Fed paused QE, so yields started to fall, then they restarted QE, and yields went up. In 2011, the Fed again stopped QE, causing bond yields to plummet.

After the financial crisis Afraid, the Fed began to stimulate the economy again. By 2015, they again paused and yields began to fall. Afterwards, the Federal Reserve began to adopt quantitative tightening policy, so the yield experienced a final period of rising. Then the moment the QT started, bond yields completely collapsed and the economy started heading into recession. We're going into a recession in 2020 whether or not there's a corona virus, and the virus is just an accelerator, which is one of the reasons I'm long bonds in 2019.

Currently, bond yields have been negative, a phenomenon not seen earlier in the economic cycle. This speaks to the fact that we are entering a down cycle early due to rising commodity costs and the impact of massive monetary tightening. In the future, I will talk to friends who agree with me or disagree with me, and hear their opinions.

Every time the Fed raises rates, the yield curve falls, and every time the yield curve crosses zero, the probability of a recession is 100%. Of course, nothing is certain in the world, but judging from the evidence currently available, the probability is quite high.

My guess is that over the next decade we may be running with real negative interest rates, as we have in Europe and Japan. While real interest rates are now positive, markets are falling apart and growth is slowing. So, real interest rates need to be much lower than where we are today, but there's no consensus on that either. The picture below is a picture of the US 10-year Treasury bond yield, which I call the "map of truth." Whenever we hit a peak in yields, the economy goes into recession. Moreover, the peak value of each cycle is lower than that of the previous cycle, and the current interest rate is about 3%.

In my technical analysis work, I use a lot of DeMark stuff. The data suggest that yields in the bond market are peaking at any time, and likely rolling peaks in the coming months, which will also be peaks in the rate cycle. We're going to have a short, sharp cycle that hasn't been seen for a long time before the Greenspan era, which I'll get to later.

A lot of people have said to me that we are going to have massive inflation. But I do think we're headed toward demand destruction because we're in a very similar situation to 2018. At that time, economic growth was slowing down, so I started to pay attention to the bond market, and made a fortune in 2019. There may be a similar situation now, but it may be more urgent and faster, and it is difficult for me to say the specific situation.

When we start to rebuild supply chains and factories, it will drive demand and thus inflation. Fixed investment has lagged behind in recent decades, and now these reconstructions can stimulate the economy again, pushing up the prices of materials such as cement and copper. Meanwhile, wages are rising at the expense of profits. Many people think that wages will continue to increase, but the transfer from capital to labor is actually a continuous trend.

The latest fiscal policy will also lead to higher inflation levels, 3% to 4%, and bond yields will also peak at 5% . Different people have different opinions on this, and no one knows the exact answer. But I think we're in a very similar shape to the 1940s, not the 1970s. We are going through the Fourth Turning, and I recommend you to read The Fourth Turning by Neil Howe and William Strauss for details.

We formed a unified global order system and financial system during World War II in the United States, and now with changes in demographics, these systems will start to fork, no one Know what the future will look like. After World War II, as global demand increased, we had the largest supply shock the world has ever seen, followed by rapid price increases. Afterwards, due to changes in demand, the inflation rate then fell back and stabilized for a while. Financial repression, which limited interest rate rises and kept inflation around 3%, sapped the value of debt for 15 years without making it a problem.

At that time, everything was being rebuilt, and there was a massive boom in fixed asset investment, with factories, houses, roads and City. Then the population exploded, and the arrival of the baby boomers ushered in an unusual period. But if you tell people that we are in a similar situation to the 1940s, people will not buy it, because today's inflation is increasing, the market environment is bad, it is not at all the kind of technology, economic growth, debt reduction, and rising living standards. state.

But at the time, yields were not exploding, but hovering between 1% and 3%, which is what we needed to work towards. In my opinion, we should follow the wave of technological development, adjust the global economic structure, and stabilize the inflation rate. As technology develops, commodity prices will trend down in the long-term, which will also offset supply chain issues and some structural issues. At present, we do not have excess demand for bulk commodities, but are growing normally. The bulk commodity market will also be in a bull market for a long time, and there will be no extreme changes.

This would essentially reduce inflation and over time supply issues would also be resolved. Now the situation in Russia has brought a lot of uncertainty to the world economy. Should we transfer investment? What are the countermeasures? Although I can't answer these questions, I believe that the international community will be able to get along well with each other.

Over the next decade, with the growth of young populations in India and the Middle East, the situation will change. But before that, we should first look at the investment in the domestic supply chain. For example, in Elon Musk's factory, the number of workers is very small, and they are replaced by robots and artificial intelligence. This is also the future development trend-replacing the labor force in China, India and other countries with robots is also an effective way to solve the problem of aging population and declining labor force participation rate. Although this process is very difficult for people without transferable skills, artificial intelligence has entered people's lives and is an inevitable trend.

In the future, the population structure will continue to deteriorate, the aging population will intensify, the labor force will leave one after another, and the willingness of young people to have children is generally sluggish. In the next 20 or 30 years, the population growth of the United States is best to maintain a stable state, but it is also very likely to experience negative growth like other countries, including China, which is now beginning to experience negative population growth. If this trend continues, it will be difficult for economic development to be driven by wage growth. On the one hand, the development of technology will reduce costs, and on the other hand, retirees will also accept lower wages because they have pensions.

Let's look at the charts from the 1940s and 1950s, when we had massive supply shocks after World War II. The shock lowered demand and pushed inflation into negative territory for a while, before the world economy began to rebuild and inflation rose again. Judging from this chart, interest rates have not risen substantially, and real interest rates have reached negative values.

As the S&P 500 shows , a negative real interest rate is more beneficial to the stock market. At that time, we had supply shocks and financial repression, and the stock market was up 700%.

In the 1940s and 1950s, inflation The rate fluctuated because monetary policy was not as widely used as fiscal policy at the time. Now that fiscal policy is king, we have found a new tool, direct transfer payments, which I think Europe will use to offset the impact of the war in Ukraine on commodity, oil prices. Unlike past sweeping stimulus packages, Europe will send checks directly to households and businesses this time around. But the problem is that if we don't consider the use of monetary policy, interest rates will remain at around 0, and the United States will not exceed 1.5%.

Before the Greenspan era in 1987, the economy had been cyclical under fiscal policy. After the Greenspan era, we began to adopt monetary policy to reduce this volatility, and the economy began to flatten. At that time, people promoted the accumulation of debt by lowering interest rates, thereby offsetting the volatility of economic development. However, when debt collapses, this approach no longer works. So we started using the central bank's balance sheet, but this fiscal policy further increased the instability of the economy.

The graph below is a graph of US GDP going back to 1947. You can see that during the Great Moderation, GDP growth was more subdued. GDP has been falling consistently, the trend rate you can see, it's been falling since the 1970s. But we also find that the volatility of GDP gradually becomes smaller. As for after 2020, GDP will fluctuate greatly again, and we can wait and see the future trend.

Let's talk about interest rates and bonds, in terms of US monthly total returns In other words, bonds have had the largest sell-off in my entire career and one of the largest sell-offs in history. We're back to where we were in the 1970s, and while it's not a repeat of the era, the magnitude of the selloff is unprecedented.

I will be in Global Macro Investor and Macro The issue of the bond market is explored in more detail in Insiders, but sure enough, looking at the bond market, everyone hates bonds and everyone is inflationary. In the next few weeks, I will also talk to many people about their perspectives and work through these issues with everyone.

The chart below shows the change of the Nasdaq 100 Index from 2009 to 2010. In 2010, we stopped the first quantitative easing policy, so the market sold off one after another, and the stock index showed a "W"-shaped change. And when people realized that the central bank will continue to pursue quantitative easing, stocks experienced another rally.

Let's look at 2015 and the situation in 2016. This time, the Fed started preparing to raise rates and announced in 2016 that they were going to raise rates four times, by 25 basis points. However, the Fed was forced to stop after raising rates once, as the market crashed and growth slowed again in a "W"-shaped swing. When the situation became more serious, the Fed stopped raising interest rates, and the stock market ushered in a new round of gains.

The situation in 2018 is more similar to now , we had quantitative tightening and we had interest rates rise and the yield curve went all the way into negative territory. As a result, the Fed adopted Powell's shift to respond.

Amid Powell shift, stocks take off again up. Given the evidence already given, I don't know why this wouldn't happen again. Many of you will say that inflation would be higher that way. In 2008, when they proposed cuts, inflation was at its peak. Cyclical inflation always lags, especially core inflation.

If inflation lags and forward-looking growth indicators fall, then I think the Fed probably won't go as far as people think and the bond market Will follow lower, and the stock market is a great buy. The recession predicted in 2018 has not yet arrived - but let's assume a recession is coming, I think it may not come until 2023.

But if a recession comes, then the market typically falls 30% in a recession, which is the average over the last 30, 40, 50 years. But central bank balance sheets have far more profound consequences for economies than recessions. Once a recession occurs, the Fed will print money, causing real interest rates to fall, and stocks will explode. And they're already a lot oversold. Below I will use Amazon as an example to explain, which is a stock that reflects network effects and has been rising according to Metcalfe's law. Whenever an S-shaped curve occurs, it means that the market is not sure whether Amazon can continue to survive. In 2014, Amazon's stock fell 30%. Whenever a sell-off occurs, it enters oversold by a standard deviation or two.

The picture below is my friend Courtesy of Northman Trader, Sven recently pulled this chart out. This is the NMAMI and people have never been more bearish. A further market crash, while entering the structural bear market everyone is fearing is highly unlikely, is possible.

This is my whole macro frame, it's not just one or two data points, but It's the culmination of thousands of charts that Remi Tetot and I have amassed over the years. Based on this, we have established such a deep and comprehensive cyclical and structural framework.

The movement of the dollar is closely related to the financial conditions index. As the dollar strengthens and financial conditions tighten, both the ISM and the growth rate will fall. So I have been emphasizing that we need to pay attention to the dollar, which is a very critical variable.

I am currently shorting the euro, as shown below It is the changing trend of the euro in 40-50 years. Some people may say that the euro has not yet appeared in the early years, but this picture is already the best forecast based on Bloomberg data. Today the euro is falling and I'm worried it could go down to 80 or even 70 cents, I've been short the euro since 2011.

Next is the yen, Japan is The world's largest saver, which controls yields and prints money to buy bonds, will keep pushing the yen lower, and even if inflation moderates it may not improve much. If the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen rises to 200 U.S. dollars, it will have a relatively large impact on the world economy and lead to the redistribution of capital.

The next picture is the trend of gold Curve, gold does well with negative real interest rates and is somewhat forward-looking on growth. Although its trading is not smooth now, I think if the global growth slows down in the future, gold is bound to go higher, so we must continue to monitor its dynamics.

Finally, let's look at Crypto . As shown in the figure below, the number of Crypto users is constantly surpassing the number of Internet users, and is growing at an average annual rate of 165%, while the growth rate of the Internet is now 85% over the same period. This is enough to show that Crypto is the fastest adopted technology ever.

By 2030, the number of Crypto users will It will reach 5 billion and will fully open the era of value Internet. The next billion users will appear in 2024, and the growth rate of new users has been slowing down, not as amazing as before.

The next graph compares the forecasted growth of Crypto and Internet users in a more visual form. Let's assume the Internet grows at 43% per year starting in the sixth year, so it will reach 5 million users in the tenth year. If Crypto also grows at the same rate, the number of users will reach 120 million in the tenth year. But if Crypto maintains its current growth rate of 76%, the total number of users will reach 2.8 billion in ten years. Either way, the growth will be explosive.

However, in the short term, the total The year-over-year change in market capitalization has stopped growing, and it has also experienced a period of bear market. But I think central bank balance sheets are coming back into play and Crypto will do well. I know that many people are looking forward to the arrival of Crypto winter, but I don't think so.

We need to continue to pay attention to economic trends, if The lower the inflation rate, the higher the Crypto. The picture below is the total amount of Crypto, and it can be seen that it has been fluctuating sideways, and this will also lead to the emergence of sideways.

The picture below is Bitcoin using regression channel On the logarithmic chart, Bitcoin has achieved one standard deviation of oversold, which is also the largest oversold in Bitcoin's history. That said, we should all be buying rather than selling as it has little chance of going lower. We're all waiting for that inflection point, maybe an ETF, maybe an ETH 2.0 staking, because that's going to change the dynamics of the whole market. And if inflation falls and growth rate declines, then you need to hold a long-term asset like Crypto.

The picture below is the latest Bitcoin The price chart, has been fluctuating in a small range. Generally speaking, sideways mean substantial growth. Although we are not sure whether the price of Bitcoin will go lower, I actually don't care too much about it, because I still value her long-term development trend more.

Compared to Bitcoin, I am more optimistic ETH. Over time, we should see significant outperformance of ETH over Bitcoin. It has been trending like this for a while now, even when Bitcoin is selling off.

I will stop here today, and There are a lot of content that I haven’t touched on today, and I will invite elites from more fields to discuss together later, and I hope you can continue to pay attention, learn more from it, and find new opportunities. We live in difficult and complicated times, but we can always find a way to navigate them, good luck to everyone.

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