Original Title: Your fast money brain will make you lose everything

Original Author: @0xPickleCati, Crypto Trader

Rhythms BlockBeats Note: This article is a deep dive shared by crypto trader Pickle Cat. In the Chinese community, she is more commonly known as "Cucumber Cat." At the age of 12 (not a typo, really 12 years old), she entered the crypto market, experienced multiple complete bull and bear cycles, ranked among the top in spot trading profits in coin-margined contracts, with total profits exceeding 40 million USD. Labels such as "post-00s," "genius," "female trader," have long accompanied her trading career.

However, this article is not a boastful summary about gains, skills, or "how to succeed quickly." On the contrary, it is a systematic retrospective on trading, survival, and cognition after experiencing a full market cycle. There is only one core message: don't let "fast money" ruin you. The following is the original content:

Your 'Get Rich Quick' Mindset is the Culprit Blocking You from Making Big Money

I bought my first Bitcoin in 2013.

As a DeFi veteran who lived through until 2026, experiencing over a decade of cycles, I've seen the market drive people crazy in ten thousand ways.

During this long time, I found an undeniable rule that seems to exist:

That is, in this circle, "winning" is never about how much money you make. Everyone who has been in touch with this circle can make money at least once, even if they are a newbie, even if their capital is small, they can become a temporary "genius." So what is "winning" exactly? It's about making money and still holding onto that money today after many years.

In other words, if you want to change your destiny miraculously through the crypto world, you must first realize that this is not a competition of "who earns the most" or "who doubles the fastest," but a game of "who can survive until the end."

But reality is cruel. Most "geniuses" have become fuel, and only a small number of people can successfully live to the next cycle. Among these survivors, those who can truly achieve compound interest snowballing are even rarer.

After 2010/2011, the market sentiment returned to the dull period that I was familiar with.

That day, I lost many friends who I thought I would stand side by side with in the coin circle for many years. Although this kind of "farewell" has been played out countless times, every time it happens, I subconsciously flip through some of the reflections I have written intermittently over the years.

I think it's time to tidy things up. To figure out that ultimate proposition: what exactly it is, whether there are any replicable qualities that can help one survive in the crypto world until the end.

For this, I also spoke with several old friends who are still active in the crypto world. And thus, this article was born.

This article is my exclusive insight, a labor of love, which will attempt to explain the following points:

· Why can some people survive in this cyclical "bloodbath" while others have to leave empty-handed?

· How to maintain hope when tormented to the brink of despair in a bear market?

· What do you need to do to become the person described above?

To fully understand this truth, we must first go back to basics and forget everything others have told you about this circle.

"The only true wisdom is in knowing you know nothing." — Socrates

The article will briefly explain the history of the crypto world and the essence of the crypto world. Most newcomers to the space tend to overlook these elements, as understanding them doesn't immediately lead to making money (or losing money), which is more thrilling (painful).

But based on my personal experience, it is precisely these overlooked aspects that provide the secret to fearlessly navigating bull and bear markets, just as philosopher George Santayana said, "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."

In this article, I will help you understand:

I. What exactly can make the crypto market bullish, how to distinguish between "bull run initiation" and "dead cat bounce"? This includes 3 case studies and a basic version of "judgment criteria" that you can directly apply.

II. What exactly should you do to increase your chances of catching the "next big wave"?

III. What are the replicable commonalities among those who can span multiple market cycles and continue to make money?

If you've ever felt your wallet also experience "decentralization" in the crypto world, then this article is for you.

I. The Real Catalyst to Break the Crypto Market Out of Sideways Movement

Whenever people inquire why the crypto market is stagnant, the answer is almost always the same: a new narrative has not yet emerged! Institutions have not fully entered! The technological revolution has not erupted yet! Blame those rug-pull liquidity providers and KOLs! It's all because of certain individuals or trading platforms/projects/companies!

These factors are indeed important, but addressing them has never been the root cause of ending the crypto winter.

If you've weathered enough bulls and bears, you'll see a clear pattern: the resurgence of the crypto market has never been because it became more like the traditional system, but because it once again reminded people of the suffocating aspects of the old system.

The stagnation of crypto is not due to a lack of innovation or just a liquidity issue.

It is fundamentally a failure of collaboration—more precisely, stagnation occurs when the following three fail simultaneously:

· Capital shows no interest

· Sentiment is completely drained

· Current consensus can no longer explain "why we should care about this space"

In such a scenario, price weakness is not because crypto "is dead," but because there are no new elements to rally new participants.

This is the root of most people's confusion.

They always believe that the next cycle will be triggered by some "better, more explosive" product, feature, or new narrative. But these are all effects, not causes. The real inflection point only emerges after a deeper consensus upgrade.

If you cannot see this logic, you will continue to be led by market noise, becoming the easiest prey for those whales holding the market and the rug pullers.

This is why there are always people chasing after the "next hot trend," trying to be the ultimate diamond hand, only to find themselves entering too late, or worse—buying into the air of the air coins.

If you want to develop a true investment sense that allows you to discover opportunities early, rather than being watered down into the fate of a rug-cabbage at every project's coin launch, you first need to learn to distinguish:

The Difference Between Consensus and Narrative

The fact is, every time the crypto world is pulled out of winter, it has always been the same thing: the evolution of consensus.

"Consensus," in this space, refers to humans finding a new way to financialize some kind of "abstract element" (such as faith, judgment, identity, etc.) using cryptocurrency as a medium and coordinating on a large scale around it.

Be sure to note: Consensus is by no means equivalent to narrative. And most people's cognitive biases start right here.

Narrative is a story shared by the many.

Consensus is the collective behavior of the many.

Narrative is spoken; consensus is acted. Narrative captures attention, consensus retains the crowd.

· Narrative without action → Short-term frenzy

· Action without narrative → Behind-the-scenes evolution

· When both are present → Only then will the real supercycle begin

To understand the intricacies here, you need to take a long view and approach it from a more expansive perspective.

As you quickly skim through the crypto short history, you'll notice:

At the foundation of all narratives is aggregation—this is consensus.

In 2017, the ICO was the era's top-tier "rallying" technique. Essentially, it was a coordination mechanism that brought together people who believed in the same story, pooling their funds and faith into one place.

It was basically saying, "I have a whitepaper and a dream, care to take a chance?"

Subsequent IDOs then took this "rallying" to decentralized exchanges, turning fundraising into a permissionless free-for-all "ritual."

Then came the DeFi summer of 2020, aggregating "financial labor." We became the back-office workers of that never-closing bank: lending, borrowing, arbitraging, tirelessly chasing that 3000% APY, praying every night it wouldn't rug pull by morning.

Next up was the 2021 NFT craze, aggregating not just capital but those resonating with a shared culture, aesthetic, or idea. Everyone was asking, "Wait, why am I buying a picture?" "That's not just a picture; it's culture."

Everyone was seeking their own "tribe"; your little picture was your passport, a digital "one of us" badge, granting you entry into exclusive group chats and upscale gatherings.

By the time the 2024 Meme Coin era rolls around, this trend is impossible to ignore. At this point, people barely care about the technology. What truly aggregates is emotion, identity, and in-group inside jokes.

You're no longer buying a whitepaper. You're buying into that sentiment of "those who know, know, and you understand why I'm laughing (or crying) hehe." You're buying into a "community" that makes you feel less alone when the price drops 80%.

Up to now, we have seen the rise of prediction markets. They aggregate not just emotions but judgment, a shared belief in the future. Moreover, these beliefs have truly enabled borderless flows.

Take the U.S. presidential election, a global focal point. However, if you are not American, you don't have the right to vote. In a prediction market, although you still can't vote, you can bet on your cognition. This is when a real shift becomes evident.

Cryptocurrency is no longer just about moving funds around; it is about redistributing the power of "who calls the shots."

With each cycle, a new dimension is added to this grand system: money, faith, financial labor, culture, emotions, judgment, ____? What will be the next one?

You will find that every time the crypto space breaks out of its bubble, it fundamentally gathers people in a new way. Each stage brings not only more users but also a new reason for people to stay—this is the key.

The focus has never been on the token itself; the token is just a topic to bring everyone together to play together. What truly flows within this system is something that can carry an increasingly large-scale native consensus.

To put it bluntly: what flows through that pipeline is not actually "money." It is us, learning how to achieve larger and more complex consensus without a boss overseeing us.

If you want to understand this more deeply, take a look at the simple "Three-Fuel Model" below:

· Liquidity (macro risk appetite, USD liquidity, leverage capacity, etc.) acts as the oxygen injected into the market, determining how quickly prices can move.

· Narrative (why people care, how it is interpreted, common language) attracts attention, determining how many people will look this way.

· Foundational consensus-building (common behavior, repeated actions, decentralized modes of collaboration) influences durability, determining who will truly stay when prices no longer offer a reward.

Liquidity might temporarily boost prices, a narrative might momentarily ignite interest, but only through new consensus-building can people be empowered to engage in win-win actions beyond mere transactions.

This is why many so-called crypto pumps often fail to become true pumps: they have liquidity, they have woven a good story, but people's actual consensus remains unchanged.

So, How Do You Tell "Dying Cat Bounce" From a Real "Consensus Upgrade"?

Don't look at the price first — look at the behavior. A real consensus upgrade often shows similar signals over time, changing the way we, this motley crew, play together.

It's always behavior first, not price.

If you want to learn to tell on your own, looking at principles won't help. You need to study crypto history, learn from it, and draw conclusions to have a chance of spotting key points in the next consensus upgrade.

Below are 4 sections, including 3 expanded examples I curated, and finally, a baseline checklist to identify if the next consensus upgrade is on the horizon and judge whether the narrative-driven behavior will truly stick.

Expanded Example 1: The Flourishing of ICOs in 2017 vs. Early Experimentation

Price of BTC and ETH during the ICO craze (mid-2017 to mid-2018)

This was the crypto world's first understanding of coordinating people and capital on a massive scale globally. Billions flowed onto the chain, not into mature products but into ideas.

Before this, there were, of course, early experiments. For example, Mastercoin in 2013, Ethereum's own crowdfund in 2014, etc. These attempts were intriguing but remained niche. They had not yet created a behavioral pattern that could draw everyone into the same orbit and be globally shared.

In the early days of crypto, the playbook was quite simple: mine, transact, hold, use it to buy things (e.g., on the dark web).

Of course, there were also many "get-rich-quick" Ponzi schemes at the time, but we didn't have a defined standard way back then to let a group of strangers bet on the same dream on-chain.

The DAO in 2016 was crypto's true "aha" moment. It proved that a group of strangers could pool funds based solely on code. But truth be told...the tools were primitive, the tech fragile, and it was eventually hacked. The behavioral pattern emerged but was not sustainable.

Then came 2017, and everything became easily "reproducible."

Ethereum and the (now more mature) ERC-20 standard turned token issuance into a mass-production process. Suddenly, the "underlying logic" of participating in the crypto world underwent a revolution:

Fundraising activities are now fully on-chain, becoming the new normal. The whitepaper has become an "investment target." We traded "Minimum Viable Product" for "Minimum Viable PDF." Telegram has directly turned into financial infrastructure.

This brand-new "trendy" behavior has brought millions of people in and fueled an epic bull market. But more importantly, it permanently reshaped the DNA of the crypto world.

Even after the bubble burst, we never reverted to the "old ways." Anyone, anywhere can crowdfund for a protocol—the idea is deeply entrenched.

Yes, most ICOs back then were outright scams or Ponzi schemes. This kind of shady business was around before 2017 and is still around in 2026. But the way people collaborate and allocate funds has been forever altered; this is the so-called "consensus upgrade."

Use Case Extension 2: The DeFi Summer of 2020 vs. the Fake Bull

BTC and ETH prices during the DeFi Summer period (June 2020 - September 2020)

This era was also a true "consensus upgrade" because even though prices didn't skyrocket, people began using crypto assets as "financial instruments." This was a stark departure from the ICO era, where price surges and user behavior fed off each other symbiotically.

Prior to 2020, besides the ICO frenzy season, the crypto world's experience was mostly "buy, hold, trade, and then pray." (Well, unless you were a miner... or engaged in some unspeakable activity)

But now, we have gradually developed on-chain muscle memory, permanently altering the industry. We've learned:

· Lending: Staking your crypto assets in a protocol to earn "rent."

· Collateralized Loans: Access purchasing power without selling your crypto assets, similar to using a house for a mortgage.

· Liquidity Mining: Moving funds weekly to the most rewarding pools, constantly shuffling funds.

· LPing: Putting your chips on the table for others to trade and taking a cut from the transaction fees.

· Recollateralization: Collateralize, borrow, re-collateralize, re-borrow, stacking leverage and returns.

· Governance: Actively participating in voting for protocol rules, not just speculating on token prices.

During the DeFi Summer, even as ETH and BTC traded sideways, the whole ecosystem felt "alive," with activity not solely dependent on price spikes.

It broke free from the "pure gambling" mindset, as for the first time, the crypto world felt like a productive financial system rather than just a speculative playground.

DeFi projects like Compound ($COMP), Uniswap ($UNI), Yearn Finance ($YFI), Aave ($AAVE), Curve ($CRV), Synthetix ($SNX), and MakerDAO ($MKR/$DAI) became the "Internet's bank."

Even wild experiments like SushiSwap held significant meaning. Its "vampire attack" directly drained liquidity from Uniswap, proving that incentive mechanisms could truly mobilize funds like commanding an army.

Then...came the false revival, the false bull run, the "last hurrah."

For instance, those food-named copycat farms—Pasta, Spaghetti, Kimchi. They didn't bring about any new coordination behavior and mostly vanished as quickly as they appeared.

By 2021, DeFi still thrived (with projects like dYdX, PancakeSwap seeing rapid growth), but the era of unchecked expansion had ended, with the crowd already shifting focus to the next shiny narrative (NFTs).

Looking back from today (2026), you'll find that 2020 was the true birth of the "on-chain economy." Nearly everything we do now (from airdropping tokens, chasing TVL, to Layer 2 incentives, etc.) follows the playbook set in 2020. After the DeFi Summer, if a new product couldn't give users a substantive reason to "stay on-chain," it struggled to make a splash.

Incentives indeed could drive short-term activity, but if these rewards didn't establish a lasting community habit (a new paradigm), then once the subsidies ran out, the project swiftly turned into a ghost town.

Case Study 3: NFT Era Reversing Social Habits

The BTC and ETH prices during the NFT frenzy period (early 2021 - mid-2022). 2021 was a "perfect storm": global liquidity and macro backdrop, institutional entry, NFT boom, DeFi growth, blockchain wars, all resonating at the same time, propelling the market to its peak. This case study will focus on NFTs—they were one of the most significant core catalysts of that period.

If the DeFi Summer was a geek epoch where everyone was immersed in studying liquidity curves, then 2021 was the year when the crypto world finally acquired its “personality.” No longer are we solely engaging in a race for yields, but we are now starting to pursue ambiance, identity, and belonging.

For the first time, digital items are no longer mere copy-and-pasteable “things.” They now have a verifiable origin. You are not just “buying a piece of art,” but rather a digital receipt stating “you are the original owner,” and the entire blockchain serves as your witness.

This has completely rewritten the social script. People are no longer trying to outcompute each other but to showcase their identity.

Today, avatars have become passports. Owning a CryptoPunk or a Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) has become a form of digital “tribal membership proof.” Your avatar is no longer a household cat but rather your ticket to the “global elite circle.”

Now, barriers to entry have emerged. Your wallet has become your membership card. If you don’t hold the corresponding assets, you cannot access those private Discord channels, attend exclusive community parties, or receive special airdrops.

Then there is IP ownership. BAYC has granted commercial rights to holders, successfully leading the “ownership revolution” beyond the bubble. Suddenly, strangers are collaborating around their “ape,” developing derivative products, music, and streetwear.

Most importantly, it has attracted a large number of “outsiders” to join. Artists, gamers, and creators who do not care about APY or liquidation mechanisms have suddenly found a reason to own a wallet.

Crypto is no longer just about finance. It has become the native cultural layer of the internet.

From the dimension of habitual consensus:

· What replaced liquidity pools is collectible series.

· What replaced total value locked is floor price and social capital.

· What replaced yield is belonging.

Of course, the “last hurrah” followed...

First, we witnessed the wave of “imitators.”

Once the Bored Ape pattern was successfully validated, mimickers emerged in droves. They have a story but lack a soul. Countless look-alike collection series emerged, essentially being “Bored Ape but the protagonist is a hamster,” promising a fairytale roadmap. Most of them turned out to be vaporware, or rather, priced air.

Next up is the "Wash Trading" Craze.

Platforms like LooksRare and X2Y2 have attempted to directly apply the logic of "DeFi Mining" to NFTs, creating the so-called "Trade Mining." This has attracted a group of "experts" who engage in wash trading, creating huge volumes of seemingly legitimate trades that artificially boost the market activity. In reality, behind the scenes, it's all bots engaging in wash trading, causing genuine participants to leave the community early.

Lastly, we have the "Celebrity Cash Grab" Craze.

Nearly every A-list and B-list celebrity has launched their own NFT collection because their agents told them it was the "new money-printing machine." Due to the lack of genuine consensus or community support behind these projects, they disappear faster than TikTok trends.

So, what's the lesson here?

Just like the ICO and DeFi summer era, the NFT bubble has burst. However, the residue of this era's behavior patterns is permanent. It has endured long enough to fundamentally alter the industry forever.

Crypto is no longer just a digital bank; it has become the native cultural layer of the internet. We no longer ask, "Why own a JPEG?" but rather seek to understand the implications behind this series of behaviors.

For example:

· Brands are shifting towards "Digital Passports" and "Community-as-a-Service" (CaaS)

· In this AI-saturated age, provenance has become the standard for digital authenticity

· Community-first release models are now the playbook for every new consumer startup

The habit of collaboration remains, and we have learned to belong to digital culture, never reverting to the era of being mere "users."

Want to Hone Your "Investment Eye"? How Can You Do It?

By now, everyone has read one-third of this article. I have provided three detailed examples above to illustrate how to distinguish between false consensus upgrades ("froth") and real upgrades.

Needless to say, I could easily write hundreds of pages on meme coins and prediction market case studies. However, it is better to teach you how to fish than to give you a fish, so I'll let you analyze and reflect on this part on your own.

Additionally, studying failed narratives and failed "consensus upgrades" is also worthwhile, such as the 2021-2022 Metaverse 1.0, and 2023-2024 SocialFi 1.0. Although they have only left behind remnants of the "hype," failing to immediately reshape behavior patterns, it does not mean they have ended. Genuine "consensus upgrades" rarely happen overnight. Just like how Mastercoin pioneered ICOs in 2013 but remained obscure for years until it truly exploded and massively transformed the industry in 2017. Early failures are stepping stones to understanding.

Don't turn a blind eye just because things have "cooled off." The next "consensus upgrade" may be something entirely new, but it could also be a revival of a previously failed "old thing" in "some new form," and when such a thing happens, this understanding will be your great opportunity.

The best way to hone your "investment eye" is to personally put in the effort to research, analyze, and validate.

Ask yourself if you truly understand what the masses are up to. If you cannot observe the behavioral shifts within, then you won't be able to spot the tide turning.

Before wrapping up this first part, I have prepared a basic checklist to identify whether the next consensus upgrade is on the horizon. I call it the "Shrimp's Self-Preservation 5 Questions":

1. Is there an "outsider" influx?

A group of participants has emerged whose primary purpose is not to make money. The people you see are no longer just here to speculate on coins. They are creators, builders, or individuals seeking identity. If the room only has traders, then that room is essentially empty.

(If you are a trader and are reading this—well, I am a trader too. You and I both understand that to make this game work, it's not just about our PvP skills.)

2. Can it withstand an "incentive decay" test?

Observe what happens when rewards dry up or prices stagnate. If people stick around, it indicates a habit has been formed. If they vanish as soon as the "free lunch" is over, then what you're facing is just a bunch of priced-tagged air.

3. Are they engaging in "daily habits" rather than just "holding"?

Newbies only look at the candlesticks, while pros observe what people are doing every day. If they have built daily habits around this system, then it's a permanent upgrade.

4. Is there a phenomenon of "behavior > experience"?

True transformation happens when the tools are still primitive, decentralized, and inefficient. If people are willing to endure a lousy user interface to participate, then that behavior is "effective." By the time the application becomes smooth and refined, you're already late.

5. (The most important point!!) Is there "love-powered" existence?

This is crucial. When people start defending a system because it forms part of their identity, not just because they will lose money, the transition is complete.

So, if you only focus on price, endlessly daydreaming about buying the dip at a certain price is likely the reason you end up always "selling the trend," "unable to hodl," "constantly in a panicked state," and "losing sleep when you have a position." The reason massive green candles appear is that the behavioral pattern changed several months ago.

Price is the result of this shift; price is merely the lagging indicator finally admitting that the world has moved forward.

II.  Practice More Patience, Wealth Won't 1000x Without Increasing Your Understanding by 10x First

I know what you're thinking right now.

"Well, I understand the underlying logic, behavior change, collaborative upgrades, and so on. In theory, I know what to look for, but when the next hard fork actually occurs, chaos and opportunity coexist... So, which assets can really go up 1000x? More importantly, how can I identify these assets early to buy aggressively?"

To be honest, this is the real world, not a meme-splattered fantasy. Just this question alone is priceless.

If someone can confidently look into your eyes and give you a "5-step Wealth Blueprint" out of nowhere, they either want you to carry their sedan chair for them, or they want you to spend thousands of IQ points to buy their "exclusive secret classroom."

Why do I say this? Because every new cycle is a brand-new coordination game.

It's impossible to hold onto the DeFi Summer 2020 script and expect to use that playbook to pick out which meme coins will pump in 2024/2025. Even if you're a top-notch meme hunter today, you can't guarantee that your playbook will help you predict the market chaos in 2026.

"Path dependence" has hurt so many people.

(However, nothing is absolute. If your last name is Trump, then... You're right, after all, you're a master of drawing candlesticks. Congratulations on being unparalleled in both fields)

No one can predict the future, but at least we can lay a solid foundation for ourselves, build a framework that allows you to understand and learn about a genuine opportunity ten times faster than others when it arrives.

Having your framework doesn't guarantee that you'll earn more than the last cycle, but it does give you a significant first-mover advantage compared to newcomers who are just here to gamble.

The framework consists of three parts: underlying logic of the crypto cycle + crypto knowledge structure + value anchoring system.

The first part has been covered. Now let's talk about the second part, which is "What exactly should I learn and how should I learn it?"

There are a thousand Hamlets in a thousand people's eyes, and there is no such thing as an "absolute correct."

So below, I have provided two personal recommendations.

Recommendation 1: Become a Master of On-Chain Investigation

Below is a list of essential skills that can all be 100% learned online for free, without the need for any paid courses or guidance from "gurus." The only things you need to invest are your determination and time:

First, you must enhance your ability to identify the probability of "rug pull" events; otherwise, you will never escape the fate of becoming a bagholder. Learn to skillfully review wallet histories, ownership distributions, clustered transactions, fund sources and flows, and sniff out any suspicious on-chain activities.

Second, understand market mechanisms, assess potential supply shocks as much as possible, and avoid getting liquidated through sudden price crashes. You need to know where to look and understand: order book depth, spreads, net inflows/outflows on exchanges, token unlock schedules, Mcap/TVL ratio, open interest, funding rates, macro capital flows, and more.

Third, if you don't want to be ruthlessly exploited in the "dark forest," you should at least understand how MEV works, or else you'll be sandwich attacked one day without even realizing it (my painful lesson).

If you want to dive deeper and move faster than others, you also need to learn to identify fake transactions/volume, arbitrage wash trading, front-running, traps like "low float/high FDV," etc. If you're into airdrops, you should understand what an anti-whale mechanism is.

Another important point is that you should automate some of the information flow-related tasks, such as various data anomaly alerts, news screening, narrative filtering, noise reduction, etc. With the advent of vibe coding, the barriers to entry for all this have been lowered, making it accessible to everyone.

As of today in 2026, almost everyone I know (even those without any CS background) is building their own tools to filter out noise and find opportunities. If you are still relying solely on manual information discovery, that might be why you're always lagging behind.

If you don't commit your determination, time, and effort to lay this foundation, you are choosing the "hard mode." On a smaller scale, this means you're always a step behind or missing out on many opportunities. On a larger scale, it could lead to being scammed, rug pulled, or drained of funds until you finally break through and start learning (or simply accept defeat and exit the space).

I know this because I've walked this path myself, stepping on all kinds of landmines, such as being scammed by strangers and "friends," falling for various Ponzi schemes, receiving peculiar insider info dumps, backdoor deals, having my hot wallet hacked, falling victim to OTC trading scams, and even being targeted by social engineering attacks. Oh, and that's not even counting the three times I got liquidated.

In addition to these more "technically oriented" experiences, I've also put together some anti-scam tips that you can directly apply at the "Social Conan Level."

Let's start with the basics: Has the project's official handle changed its name more than 10 times? Was its previous alias associated with any rug-pull junk projects? There are many tools to check an account's renaming history, so use them. Before investing, verify the existence of the team, check if the founder and core members have Twitter, LinkedIn, GitHub accounts.

If they claim to have worked at a well-known company or graduated from a prestigious university, you need to verify that information since forged Stanford or Berkeley degrees and fake past experiences at Meta, Google, or Morgan Stanley are much more common than people imagine.

Similarly, for those who claim that "a certain VC has invested," or "incubated by...," or "partnered with...," some of these "prominent investors" may have never actually put money in. Some partners may only be indirect advisors but allow the project to use their logos. This kind of thing happens far more often than you would expect, and I have personally been a victim of it.

In today's era of AI proliferation, fake engagement is becoming more and more frequent and increasingly harder to discern. Can you tell if the ratio of followers to engagement is abnormal? Can you identify bot replies on Discord, Telegram, and X, or AI-generated chitchat?

If you couldn't do any of the above before, at least now you know where to start practicing.

Tip 2: Engage with the World and Build Good Relationships

Simply put, you need to network more. Just like in the "finance circle," "tech circle," or any circle, networking is your greatest asset.

I could write something like "50 Things to Look at When Researching a Project," but that's ultimately a bunch of worthless nonsense. Why do I say that?

Because the real "core information" or alpha, when it still has the advantage of firsthand information, will never be publicly shared.

By the time a project starts being heavily promoted by reputable voices in your information channels, you might still make money, but that's no longer the "life-changing 1000x gains" you came into the crypto world to seek, that "optimal entry point" window has long been welded shut.

This is why in each cycle, most newcomers full of anticipation to strike gold end up becoming part of the liquidity and then exiting the circle. It's because the information they receive has been through layer after layer of private circle filtering, resulting in a "lagging behind even more" type of message.

Therefore, if you don't have a reliable "inside line" (or multiple), then position management is your only safety net, so be sure to allocate most of your crypto assets to long-term targets.

Long-term targets have lower information differential requirements and don't have the nerve-wracking time pressure of short-term trading, allowing you breathing room to research public data. You don't need to strive to be the first to discover a pattern because as long as a project can survive even just 1.5 cycles, you will likely be able to capture several waves of profits no matter when you enter.

At the same time, your long-term goal is to stop being a bystander and start being a participant. To achieve this, you need to have chips in hand. Besides your family, the world operates on aligned interests. Those you admire will not exchange information with someone who cannot provide equivalent value.

You need to be "someone of value" or have "something of value" to exchange, whether it's expertise, on-the-ground research, funds, or connections. No one knows everything, and that's where you can seize the opportunity.

The best way is to sincerely and passionately delve into an ecosystem: first, find a job in a project in the field you believe in, whether you're a developer, in operations, or in business development. "Getting your foot in the door." Working is the fastest way to build your reputation and connect with your target audience.

Of course, merely having an entry-level web3 job won't immediately give you everything you want, but it's a good start.

"But what if I lack experience and can't find a reliable crypto job?"

The good news is: as of today, 2026, the crypto industry is still not a "job market desert" like traditional finance or big tech companies. You don't need an elite degree and two stacks of elite internship experiences, passing through various hurdles and seven rounds of interviews to get a job.

In this industry, your on-chain experience is your resume. If you've already dedicated a lot of time to experimenting, going all-in, and actually doing things, you actually have more relevant experience than most career switchers from the "corporate world."

Don't want to work? Then you still have two options (but still need to put in a huge effort): if you're super intelligent and lucky enough to achieve impressive results on-chain and are not ready to retire yet, you can "link" that wallet address to your Twitter account. You don't even need to actively engage in social media; the "like-minded" will come to you. Build a personal brand on X, but be aware of the challenges of this process; this is not a one-size-fits-all recommendation.

There's no such thing as a free lunch in the world, nor is there a reliable shortcut. Giving 100% effort may not always result in 100% success, but giving 0% effort will definitely lead to 100% failure (unless your name is Barron Trump).

III. How Persistence Is Victory

Based on personal experience, those who can withstand the troughs without "skinny dipping" have the following two qualities:

1. They all have a strong belief independent of price.

2. They have built a multi-dimensional value anchoring system.

First and foremost, we must make it clear that Conviction is not the same as stubbornness or blind faith due to what "someone famous" said.

It's not a "no matter what happens in the future, I'm not selling" mentality.

True conviction is structural. And structure itself includes flexibility. You can have strong conviction and still take partial profits or adjust position sizes.

The key difference is whether you can always and consistently return to this table.

You don't leave when the music stops. The reason you were here in the first place was never for those red and green candles; you stayed because of the underlying "why."

People who can stand firm through market cycles never ask, "Hey, big shots, is it going up or down today?" They ask, "Even if the price deviates from my view for the next few years, does the logic behind this still hold?"

This difference in mindset leads to a stark contrast in results.

A "get-rich-quick" mindset will not only empty your wallet. It will also erode your conviction and destroy your belief system. And rebuilding belief is much harder than recovering capital.

So, what is their "multi-dimensional value system"? And how can you build your own?

First Layer: Concept Anchoring

Stop just staring at the dancing candles; start focusing on core principles. Ask yourself, what makes this thing worth holding, even if its price has fallen through the floor?

Think back to the last 10 tokens you traded. Now, fast forward two years. Ask yourself, how many of them will still "exist"? And how many will truly be "significant"?

If you can't explain why an asset is worth long-term capital allocation without mentioning "community" or "going to the moon" in the context of examining a project, then what you have is not conviction. What you have is just a position.

Layer Two: Time Dimension (Time)

The behavioral logic of the vast majority of people is chaotic, and their decisions are easily swayed by herd emotions, as in the following example:

· Today, they FOMO buy into 4 different meme coins that are said to definitely go to the moon on some top-secret Telegram channel

· Tomorrow, they bet on some projects on Polymarket because they saw a whale on Twitter shouting "wealth secret"

· Suddenly, they disappear for a while

· Then one day, they suddenly DM you to ask about a project that is about to be listed

· But somehow, they end up buying a privacy coin project without even knowing what this sector is for

· A few days later, they shout in the group "bulls are back" and "the big cake is fully charged, all-in!" and blindly go long on Bitcoin just because some news headline says "it will rise to $200,000 next month"

Hey, this is not a strategy, this is simply handing your money over to someone else, maybe even losing the Holy Grail would be more probable.

Of course, I have seen people make money this way, but I have never seen these people hold onto that money two months later. All they leave behind is a glorious past and a +99999% psychological shadow.

The real problem with these people is that they are easily distracted by noise, lose their judgment, and open up multiple "battlefields" beyond their abilities and cognitive circles.

Short-term speculation, mid-term planning, and long-term investment each require completely different behavioral patterns. Those who can span cycles clearly know which time dimension each position belongs to, and will never let emotions spread across dimensions.

They will not deny long-term conviction because of short-term price noise, nor will they use a long-term narrative to excuse their impulsive short-term actions.

If you are trying to transition from day trading to swing trading, here are some common "self-destructive" mistakes:

1. You tell yourself that you are now a "long-term investor," but 80% of your time is still spent chasing one-time news headlines.

2. You see a minuscule 3% dip that should have been well within your risk tolerance, yet you still panic.

3. Worst of all, you are still approaching position sizing and risk assessment with a "quick gains through day trading" mentality, causing you to once again sell during a powerful trend.

Time-wise anchoring involves forcing yourself to answer an extremely uncomfortable question before clicking "buy," to break this vicious cycle: "How long will it take for me to admit I was 'wrong'?"

Layer Three: Behavioral

You can't claim to have "faith" only when things are going your way; the real test is when your account is in the red and the voices in your head are screaming at you to "do something."

You need to establish a framework of self-inquiry to predict yourself, not the market.

Before entering each trade, you need to go through the following checklist to ensure that your future self won't trip up your current self:

· Do I have a plan in place for when the price drops x%? Am I clear on whether I will hold, reduce my position, or exit?

· Am I a gut-driven decision-maker? During a pullback, am I objectively reassessing my investment thesis, or am I subconsciously seeking information to justify panic selling?

· Am I constantly changing my target levels? When the price goes up x%, am I getting greedy and raising my take-profit target just because I'm "feeling it"?

· Can I explain the reason for "holding" without using the term "momentum"? Apart from emotions and trends, can I clearly articulate the reasons behind holding?

· Is this "conviction" or "sunk cost fallacy"? If a position remains stagnant longer than expected, am I holding because the investment thesis still holds, or because I refuse to admit I was wrong?

· How long is my "time to admit fault" after a rule violation? When I break one of my trading rules, do I immediately notice and take action, or do I wait until the account is deep in the red to react?

· Am I prone to "revenge trading"? After incurring a loss, do I immediately feel the need to get back in the game to "recover what was lost"?

The purpose of these questions is not to predict candlestick patterns but to outline whether your future self will betray your current self when under immense psychological pressure.

The so-called "Behavioral Anchor" is essentially pre-processing for stress. Setting a course of action when calm is meant to prevent you from acting erratically when in despair.

After all, if you haven't figured out a plan for "playing" a trade, then ultimately, the trade will start "playing" you.

Layer Four: Belief Dimension

Have you ever noticed that the quickest-to-"disappear" people are often those who were the loudest during a bull market:

"Now is the last chance to buy XX before it moons." "After this time, you won't see Bitcoin below six figures again!" "Trust me, go all-in, not investing in XX means you are fighting against the future!"

As the price reverses, these people vanish one by one, and their "belief" seems to have never existed.

This "get-rich-quick" mentality will not only ruin your investment portfolio through frequent trading but also erode your belief system. And a shattered belief system is much harder to rebuild than a bank account.

"Quick money always attracts sad, excessive behavior. It's human nature, just like African animals feasting on carrion." — Charlie Munger

Sadly, most people exhaust their capital at the peak of the party, and by the time the real opportunity (the true bear market) arrives, they have run out of ammo.

It's a massive irony: the mindset that leads people into the crypto world, the desire for overnight riches, is precisely what kills their chance of wealth.

Most people don't even realize what they've lost until years later when Bitcoin multiplies again, and they slap their thigh, saying, "Why couldn't I endure that setback? I should have just held on."

That's why belief is the most crucial layer: it's a creed that takes years to form.

How to test if your belief is strong enough?

Try this: If someone were to vehemently question your stance right now, could you calmly defend it? Can you squarely face sharp questions instead of avoiding them?

Your belief should be highly subjective and unique.

For some, it's the Cypherpunk spirit: a thorough rebellion against control and centralization. For them, crypto is not just an investment but a dawn of escape from a broken system.

For some, it is another iteration of monetary history: they see it as a hedge against the cyclical devaluation of fiat currency and financial predation, recognizing that crypto is the only hedge against a traditional system that collapses in a similar manner every century.

For some believers, it is about sovereignty, neutrality, or the right to survival.

You must find your own "why" instead of merely renting someone else's big V vision. I cannot tell you what your unique belief should be, but I can share mine.

Last year, when I only had 2,000 followers and no one cared about what I said, I wrote a post answering a simple question: why, after all the collapses and resets, do I still buy Bitcoin. I called it: "The Fourth Covenant Between God and Mankind".

The three major covenants in human history all had a fatal flaw: they were never meant for everyone.

The first was the Old Testament, based on bloodlines where belonging was predestined before your birth. If you did not belong to the chosen bloodline, you were never eligible.

The second was the New Testament, discussing love and redemption for all, but history revealed the truth that language tried to hide: if you were a poor Asian farmer in the 17th century, you would never set foot in the cathedral in your lifetime, the empire would keep you at the door, only race, power, and rank determined who was worthy of redemption.

The third was the Declaration of Independence, the birth of the modern world, promising freedom, equality, and opportunity, but the premise was that you were born in the right land, held the right passport, and were within the right system.

Of course, in a sense, "freedom of movement" exists, but for most, the cost is too high, the odds too slim, and these rules never seemed to be written for the common people.

Most people never even reach the starting line; they must spend their entire lives proving they are "worthy," with money, education, obedience, or luck, begging the system layer by layer to let them "belong."

And now, the fourth covenant has emerged: Bitcoin

This is the first system in human history that does not ask who you are.

It does not care about your race. It does not care about your nationality. It does not care what language you speak, or where you were born.

Here there is no priest, no government, no borders, and no need for permission, just you and a private key.

You don't need to be chosen, you don't need connections, you don't need approval, you don't need to prove yourself to Bitcoin. You either get it or you don't.

This system does not promise you comfort, safety, or guaranteed success; it only offers something that humanity has never truly had before: simultaneously, everyone facing the same rules, with equal access.

For me, this is not an investment thesis, not a transaction, not a gamble. This belief is the sole reason I have been able to sit through market swings, endure years of silence, doubt, ridicule, and despair, and still hold on.

If you have patiently read this far...

Then congratulations, you have received the blueprint of a "survivor".

You have learned how to identify a "consensus upgrade", you have learned how to use that "researcher's toolkit" to increase your early entry success rate, and you also know what elements are needed to build faith and maintain conviction.

However, I must be honest with you: the way of the Dao is natural, the Buddha. No matter how high-end your tools are, if you cannot control the one who uses the tools, it will always be like trying to break a brick with force.

All that I share comes from the countless mistakes, lessons, and deep scars I have experienced in the 13 years of market fluctuations. The fragmented notes I write down also stem from late-night conversations with friends who have similarly survived the battlefield.

As I look through these messy notes, I realize that the material I have on hand could easily fill a book, with each chapter delving into crypto from a different perspective.

However, these lessons cannot make you a master overnight, just like having a "get rich quick" mindset cannot truly make you wealthy.

I have witnessed the downfall of those "geniuses" in every cycle... They lost money not because they weren't smart or made a wrong move, but because they all had a "mindset that only seeks quick gains" and carried a pride that was arrogant yet "shattered with a touch". At the same time, those profiting in 2026 and those who have preserved their gains and exited all share one realization: the token itself has never been the focus.

The key point is the sovereign system we are building and the personal discipline it requires.

Crypto is the harshest, most honest teacher on this planet: it will bring out the demon in you, it will find your weakest trait—be it greed, impatience, or laziness. And then it will charge you a huge "tuition fee" for it. Mine, I think, I have paid in full, haha. My only hope is that this article can spare you from having to pay as much as I did.

If you have truly read all of this (instead of letting AI summarize it for you), then I really believe you have the potential to become one of us survivors who have conquered multiple cycles, the kind of person who can truly master the skill set I provided in part two.

I sincerely hope that you can become one of my new "old friends," that you can grow with me, as comrades-in-arms, in the next cycle, in the cycle after next, in countless future cycles, to witness Bitcoin completely revolutionize the world together.

And to my long-time readers: Thank you, it is your kindness and support that has led me to decide to revisit my past and share these experiences.

The crypto world may often be frustrating, but it is still worth loving, still worth building for.

So, I'll take the first step, and I'll see you at the next "consensus upgrade."

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