Serenity: The US-China AI Competition has taken on the characteristics of a "new Cold War," where the mutual dependence of supply chains may no longer be able to restrain the escalation of confrontation.

BlockBeats News, June 30th. In a post published by Serenity, it is hard to imagine a significant drop in U.S. AI mega-corporation capital expenditure from Google to Meta. This is because Chinese companies such as 360 have claimed to possess the "AI Era's Cyber Nuclear Weapons," capable of attacking Western enterprises and government systems (360's founder Zhou Hongyi previously analogized Anthropic's Mythos model to an "AI Cyber Nuclear Weapon" and later claimed to have developed a Chinese version of an equivalent system).

Serenity believes that we may be witnessing a "modern Cold War," but the competition is no longer about nuclear stockpiles; instead, it is about superintelligence with both offensive and defensive capabilities. This competition is unfolding on multiple fronts simultaneously, including a game of export control over supply chains between mega-corporations in China, Japan, and the U.S.

She also points out a paradox: despite the deep interdependence, the U.S. relies on China for rare earth and raw material supply, while China depends on EUV lithography technology, EDA tools, and precision substrates from Europe and the U.S. This is why the export of AI chips by companies like NVIDIA and AMD to China is tied to the supply of rare earth and magnetic materials, maintaining this "exchange relationship." It underscores the urgency for the U.S. to quickly establish an independent rare earth supply chain and not to provoke key ally supply chain nodes like ASML in the Netherlands and Ulvac in Japan through means such as tariffs, to avoid losing negotiation leverage.

Serenity warns that as China's autonomous capabilities strengthen, the mutual interdependence of the supply chain, crucial for deterring escalation, is becoming increasingly fragile, potentially becoming a tipping point for the situation to spiral out of control.

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