SpaceX Options Debut Unleashes "Extreme Pricing": Implied 50% Upside Probability Around 15%, Downside Around 13%

BlockBeats News, June 17th, on the first trading day after its IPO, SpaceX launched options trading, triggering a concentrated discussion in the market on its high volatility and high valuation risk. According to Susquehanna strategist Chris Murphy's calculations, the current option pricing implies a roughly 15% probability of the stock price rising another 50% by September, while also implying about a 13% probability of a 50% decline.

Murphy pointed out that there was a significant amount of call option trading activity on SpaceX options that day, making it one of the top five highest traded securities of the day. His analysis suggests that larger trades appear more like hedging structures: bullish options reflect bets on further significant upside, while bearish options focus on hedging risks related to unlocking supply, valuation pressure, and post-IPO sentiment downturn.

He emphasized that this structure has led to the trading exhibiting a typical "fat tail risk with expensive pricing" state—both buying into the upside tail and the downside tail face high costs and asymmetric risks.

Market participant Peter Boockvar stated that the current trading is essentially based on "trading narrative and sentiment" rather than fundamentals. He noted that at such high valuation levels, the company needs to sustain growth over the coming years to justify the current pricing.

Since its IPO, SpaceX's stock price has already risen by approximately 50%, with its market value surpassing Amazon at one point and approaching levels close to Microsoft, sparking ongoing debates in the market regarding the sustainability of its valuation.