Opinion: Trump Desperate to Disengage Ahead of Midterms, US and Iran May Be Nearing Accord on Key Demands

BlockBeats News, April 12th. CITIC Securities issued an analysis regarding the US-Iran negotiations, stating that from the US core demands perspective, if Iran can abandon uranium enrichment, it will become the US's most essential war achievement and also Trump's most significant "accomplishment" to appease the domestic situation. This round of conflict has had a considerable negative impact on Trump's midterm elections and he needs to extricate himself early. Since the Iran Islamic Revolution, the US has lost control of Iran's nuclear capabilities, and for several decades, US presidents have failed to address this issue, severely affecting US Middle East strategy. Compared to Iran's "nuclear abandonment achievement" and its significant political propaganda impact, the indirect link between oil prices and inflation may have a smaller impact on elections. Therefore, the Trump administration may compromise on issues such as control over the Strait of Hormuz.

From Iran's core demands perspective, this war has proven that strait blockades and threats to Middle East infrastructure are crucial balancing chips, even more destructive and flexible than nuclear weapon threats. Compared to the high cost and uncontrollable scale of nuclear weapons, blocking the strait and targeting infrastructure only require low-cost drones to have a significant impact on the US and the global economy, thus forming Iran's balancing tool against the US. Both the US and Iran have repeatedly stopped short of the red line of massive infrastructure destruction, which also means that the probability of extreme war escalation is not high, reducing the chances of extreme oil prices, severe recession, or stagflation.