「New Bond King」 Gundlach: 2-Year Treasury Yield Implies Fed Hike Coming

The core of the judgment is based on two dimensions: persistent higher-than-expected inflation data and a clear signal from the interest rate market.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed above 5.3%, the highest since 2002, yet policymakers believe this is not tight enough.

Beyond oil prices, U.S. Treasuries are trading a more dangerous variable.

Expectations of rate hikes are driving yields higher, but valuations, positioning, and technicals have begun to support a bullish stance.

The real reversal signal for the bond market is that cracks first appear in AI, energy, or the credit chain.