View: Iran Situation Could Trigger US Recession, Cryptocurrency Pullback is a Correction to Previous Overbought Situation

BlockBeats News, March 9th, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone posted on X platform, stating that the market is discussing whether the Iran situation could become a trigger for the next U.S. economic recession. Currently, U.S. stock valuations are at historical highs, and the Nasdaq 100 Index's 180-day volatility is approaching a low point since 2018. If future volatility significantly rises, it may validate his market reversal assessment. The recent decline in crypto assets may just be the beginning of the "post-inflation era deflation domino effect." The crypto market's previous sharp rise, along with increased supply, has led to a price correction to some extent.

Regarding oil, a recent sharp rise in oil prices often cleanses the shorts, stimulates increased supply, and may trigger global economic recession risks. The high volatility in precious metals and energy markets may gradually transmit to the stock market. He predicts that after Bitcoin in 2024 and gold in 2025, U.S. Treasury Bonds may become the main excess return asset in 2026. However, if in the future, Bitcoin stabilizes above $74,000, copper price rises to $6, silver reaches $100, the S&P 500 hits 7,000 points, the Dow reaches 50,000 points, and U.S. bond yields rise above 5%, then his current assessment may be falsified.