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In this episode, Raoul Pal and Julien Bittel explain their “Everything Code” framework showing how global debt cycles, demographics, and liquidity drive all asset prices. They argue fiat debasement is running at ~8% annually, meaning only tech stocks and crypto have outperformed over time, while gold just preserves purchasing power. They discuss the societal and economic implications of AI replacing human labor, the end of traditional recessions, why liquidity will keep increasing to roll debts, and how this cycle could mirror or exceed 2017’s asset booms. Enjoy!
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Follow Raoul: https://x.com/RaoulGMI
Follow Julien: https://x.com/BittelJulien
Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
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Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for $100 OFF
https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london
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Echo Protocol is the first Bitcoin liquid re-staking and yield layer on MoveVM. As the second-largest protocol on Aptos by TVL, Echo secures nearly half of the network’s bridged assets with ~$270M in aBTC minted.
https://www.echo-protocol.xyz/
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:54) Big Macro Picture
(10:37) Liquidity & Real Returns
(14:32) Aptos Ad
(15:18) What is the Endgame?
(17:51) The Everything Code
(25:10) Financial Conditions
(31:39) 2017 on Steroids
(35:57) Aptos Ad
(36:54) Nothing Stops This Train
(38:34) Removing Recession Risk
(44:24) Immigration
(46:38) All Jobs Are Gone
(52:08) What Happens Next?
(54:50) Resurgence of Religion
(58:12) When Banana Zone?
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance
In this episode, Senior Research Fellow at Mercatus Center and host of Macro Musings David Beckworth breaks down the rising risks of fiscal dominance—when the Fed prioritizes government solvency over price stability. He explains the historical context of fiscal dominance, the warning signs we’re seeing today, and why current debt levels, persistent deficits, and political gridlock are pushing us closer to stage three. Beckworth also dives into the mechanics of stablecoins, the Treasury’s issuance strategy, and potential reforms to the Fed’s operating system, including balance sheet management and NGDP targeting. He warns that without serious structural change, the Fed’s independence and credibility may be at risk. Enjoy!
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Follow David: https://x.com/DavidBeckworth
Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
__
Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for $100 OFF
https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london
__
This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.
Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):
http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix
Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):
vaneck.com/SMHXFelix
Echo Protocol is the first Bitcoin liquid re-staking and yield layer on MoveVM. As the second-largest protocol on Aptos by TVL, Echo secures nearly half of the network’s bridged assets with ~$270M in aBTC minted. https://www.echo-protocol.xyz/
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Timestamps:
(01:27) Major Regime Shift
(05:00) Last Era of Fiscal Dominance
(08:13) Ads (VanEck, Aptos)
(09:35) Fiscal Dominance Catalysts
(12:29) Phases of Fiscal Dominance
(18:37) Can Stablecoins Help?
(23:51) Active Treasury Issuance
(26:44) Ads (VanEck, Aptos)
(28:06) Is the Endgame YCC?
(31:29) Crossing the Rubicon
(33:23) Fed Monetary Policy Framework
(38:18) The Ideal Fed Reaction Function
(45:18) Rethinking Forward Guidance
(47:52) Balance Sheet Goals
(52:13) Realistic to Offload Duration?
(54:38) Should We Remove IORB?
(01:13) Final Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance
