This week, we discuss all the growing list of weaker labor market data after August NFP showed just 22K jobs added. We also debate whether the Fed will have room to cut 50bps in September while stagflation rears its head, the potential implications if tariffs are overturned, and whether it’s time to be concerned about liquidity and Fed plumbing. Ultimately, everything leads us to one asset. Enjoy!

—

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—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:07) Tyler Back to School

(02:48) DAS London

(04:24) Big Labor Market Week

(09:29) NFP Downside Surprise

(11:11) VanEck Ad

(11:57) NFP Downside Surprise

(14:04) September Cut Odds

(17:28) Bulled Up on Gold

(22:59) VanEck Ad

(24:21) Will Tariffs Get Overruled?

(28:35) Fed Plumbing Concerns

(36:39) Read on the Dollar

(39:25) Macro Recap

(41:34) Final Thoughts

—

Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, Ben Kizemchuk joins the show to discuss his “Four Fs” macro framework – Fiscal Dominance, Financial Repression, Fiat Currency, & Passive Flows – arguing that we’re in a unique historical moment where all four are converging at once. He explains how fiscal spending reshapes growth, why financial repression and passive flows stabilize markets, and how fiat currency enables this entire regime. Ben also shares how these dynamics blur the line between the stock market and the economy, setting the stage for an AI-driven future. Enjoy!

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—

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

00:42 Ben’s Journey Through Markets

03:05 Ben’s 4 Fs Framework

06:10 F1 - Fiscal Dominance

11:00 Catalysts for Fiscal Dominance

14:15 How Sustainable is Government Debt?

17:36 F2 - Financial Repression

23:28 Rates in a Fiat vs Gold-Backed System

27:20 F3 - Fiat Currency

33:00 Are Governments Constrained by Supply & Demand?

34:55 Role of Monetary Policy Going Forward

39:56 F4 - Passive Flows

44:02 Constraints on Passive Flows

48:25 4 Fs Implications

51:53 Rethinking Asset Allocation

54:35 Final Thoughts

__

Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

This week, we break down the seasonal market pivot around Labor Day, how systematic strategies dominate price action, and why inflation and economic re-acceleration could make a September rate cut a policy mistake. We also dive into the shift from capital to labor, growing government intervention in markets, parallels between AI CapEx and past gold cycles, the potential rotation from large-caps into small caps, and the state of treasury companies. Enjoy!

—

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This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.

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—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:32) Labor Day Reset?

(05:39) Market Structure & Volatility

(12:58) VanEck Ad

(13:43) Market Structure & Volatility

(14:21) Fed Takeover Update

(15:21) The Inflation Trade

(22:08) Wages & Shift from Capital to Labor

(28:41) VanEck Ad

(29:22) Liquidity Danger Zone?

(41:34) The Capex Cycle

(48:28) What’s Next for Treasury Companies?

(51:32) Tyler’s New Job

(53:01) Russell & Market Breadth

(55:15) Final Thoughts

—

Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, founder of The Macro Compass Alfonso Peccatiello breaks down the clash between Trump’s political influence on the Fed, the reality of U.S. fiscal policy, and how to think about global markets at this moment in time. We also dig into forward rate pricing, the TGA rebuild, and the role of commodities and crypto in a world of loose monetary and fiscal policy. Enjoy!

__

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Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for 100 OFF

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This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): 

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—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:42) What’s Happening with Monetary Policy?

(07:46) What Fed Risk is the Market Pricing?

(10:55) Bond Market & Fiscal Tightening

(13:54) Understanding Changing Fiscal Impulse

(14:51) VanEck Ad

(15:34) Understanding Changing Fiscal Impulse

(19:46) QE vs Fiscal Deficits

(24:41) Impact of TGA Rebuild

(29:27) Signal for Average Macro Traders

(30:04) VanEck Ad

(35:05) Investing in High Inflation & Growth

(36:59) European Markets

(40:31) US Dollar & Emerging Markets

(43:54) Commodities Outlook

(47:03) Final Thoughts

__

Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

This week, we break down the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium and whether we can expect a dovish or hawkish tilt from Powell’s legacy speech. We also dig into the Fed’s five-year policy review, Trump’s Fed takeover strategy, foreign retreat from Treasury auctions, and whether the risks of inflation are greater than the risk of recession. Enjoy!

—

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This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.

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—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(03:50) Jackson Hole Preview

(09:43) VanEck Ad

(10:27) Fed Minutes

(13:05) Will Powell Be A Dove or Hawk?

(19:02) Bullish Post Jackson Hole?

(20:10) JH Impact on Bond Yields

(25:09) Trump’s Fed Takeover Strategy

(29:36) Centralization & the Frontiers

(32:42) VanEck Ad

(33:24) Treasury Auctions in Danger Zone?

(38:19) Hike to Save the Long End!

(40:05) Boom Time in Japan?

(43:45) Inflation Risk > Recession Risk

(47:00) The New Financial Reality

(51:32) Short Financials?

(52:30) Final Thoughts

—

Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, David Grider of Finality Capital shares how he runs a digital asset hedge fund, the rise of digital asset treasury companies, and the evolving credit and derivatives markets shaping institutional crypto adoption. He also explains how macro liquidity signals drive his strategy and why the new toolbox of crypto credit instruments is changing the game for risk management and alpha generation. Enjoy!

__

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Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance 

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This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): 

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—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(04:49) Running A Liquid Crypto Fund

(09:29) VanEck Ad

(10:14) Main Sources of Alpha

(12:29) Have We Had an Alt Season?

(14:34) Evolution of Crypto Derivatives

(17:46) Quantifying Market Froth

(20:32) Measuring Systemic Risk

(25:22) VanEck Ad

(26:03) Can ETH DATs Issue Preferreds?

(29:15) Crypto’s Credit Market

(31:54) What Happens When NAV is Negative?

(33:59) Framework for Saylor’s New Yield Curve

(38:42) What Should Saylor Do Next?

(44:13) Managing the full Spectrum of Tools

(48:21) Final Thoughts

__

Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

This week, Brent Johnson joins us to break down the latest CPI & PPI data, the potential for September rate cuts, and why he thinks we’re ripe for a 10–15% correction. We also unpack Trump’s political strategy toward Powell, Brent’s dollar milkshake theory, and AI’s long-term impact on productivity, inflation, and the next generation. Enjoy!

—

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Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for 100 OFF

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This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):

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—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(04:28) Inflation Heating Up?

(07:45) Brent's Macro Outlook

(12:08) VanEck Ad

(12:53) Should the Fed Cut?

(16:01) Time for a Correction?

(28:58) VanEck Ad

(29:38) Dampening of Animal Spirits

(33:29) Going Full Ponzi?

(37:15) The Imperial Circle

(41:31) Is the Dollar Milkshake Still Intact?

(48:45) Gold & Gold Miners

(51:13) Bifurcated Economy

(55:29) AI Boom Bearing Fruit?

(58:41) What Does Trump Really Want?

(01:22:11) The Younger Generation Is Screwed

(01:04:12) Stablecoins & the US Empire

(01:07:06) Final Thoughts

—

Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, labor market economist Guy Berger breaks down how jobs data is collected, why revisions happen, and how to interpret them in context. He explains the roles of NFP, claims, and JOLTS data, the impact of immigration shifts on labor supply, and how business surveys can signal future hiring trends. Berger also digs into why the current conditions show stability with potential for both cooling and tightening ahead. Enjoy!

__

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This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):

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—

Timestamps:

(0:00) Introduction

(3:01) How Does BLS Gather Data?

(6:27) Why Do We Have Revisions?

(15:33) VanEck Ad

(16:18) How to Think About the Data

(20:42) Immigration Impact

(29:10) VanEck Ad

(29:50) Weekly Claims Data

(40:08) JOLTS Data

(45:54) The Beveridge Curve

(53:49) Where is the Labor Market NOW?

(56:20) Final Thoughts

__

Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

This week, we discuss the wild shifts in September rate cut odds, President Trump's recent nomination of Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board, and the meltdown in commercial real estate & public pensions. We also game out different tariff scenarios, the impact of the TGA rebuild, and the economy’s slow-moving trainwreck. Enjoy!

—

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Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for 100 OFF

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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1HjM04EXMKGsMRRzD1L_oaSqbYpGJT375/view?usp=sharing

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This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):

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Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):

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—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:03) Market Whipsaw

(03:10) Miran Fed Nomination

(06:07) Where Are We Right Now?

(10:19) CRE & Chicago Meltdown

(16:50) VanEck Ad

(17:35) Pension Crisis

(22:17) Dependence on the Rich

(26:29) Gaming Out Tariff Scenarios

(32:59) VanEck Ad

(33:43) Gaming Out Tariff Scenarios

(36:52) Gold Demand & Bitcoin Reserve

(40:28) TGA Rebuild

(48:19) Negative Real Rates Incoming

(50:14) Vanguard Bond Allocation

(53:52) Our Slow-Moving Trainwreck

(56:04) Final Thoughts

—

Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, Founder & CIO of Damped Spring Andy Constan breaks down the three major macro levers shaping markets right now: a cautious Fed at a leadership crossroads, a Treasury issuing cold water via its QRA policy, and a fiscal impulse that looks contractionary once tariffs are factored in. He argues that while markets may be riding “run it hot” narratives, the data suggests we're already slowing. Enjoy!

__

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Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for 100 OFF

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This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.

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vaneck.com/SMHXFelix

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:03) Debating Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle

(04:13) Institutional Adoption & Regulation

(04:57) Are Four-Year Cycles Psychological?

(08:37) Bitcoin’s Evolving Political Impact

(09:48) Ledger Ad

(10:38) Bitcoin’s Evolving Political Impact

(17:00) Institutions Are Slow & Steady

(18:58) Reflecting on Bitcoin's Scarcity

(22:20) Crypto Regulation & Institutional Impact

(23:38) Ledger Ad

(24:25) Retail Investors & the Four-Year Cycle

(25:45) Adapting to Bitcoin's Middle Ages

(33:28) Can Blockchain Support Incoming Demand?

(36:50) Sovereign Adoption & Strategic Reserves

(38:28) OG Bitcoin HODLers Cashing Out

(41:38) Final Thoughts

__

Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance