In this episode, Capital Flows joins the show to break down how credit growth, falling real rates, and strong cross-border flows fueled the rally from April through summer, and why the Fed’s recent hawkish shift has introduced short-term volatility without meaningfully raising recession risk. We also cover auto-loan stress, the real drivers behind AI-linked equity moves, why geopolitics now shapes liquidity more than the Fed, and more. Enjoy!
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Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal.
https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:44) Macro & the Credit Cycle
(05:22) Quantifying Credit Growth
(09:43) Grayscale Ad
(10:24) Impact of Fed’s Hawkish Pivot
(13:41) Recession Odds
(16:38) Auto Loan Stress & Markets vs Economy
(20:28) Market Dispersion & Mag7
(21:22) Mag7: Capex, Financial Engineering, Politics
(25:59) Geopolitics & Cross-Border Flows
(29:28) Grayscale Ad
(30:16) Geopolitics & Cross-Border Flows (Con’t)
(35:08) U.S.-China Trade Constraints
(40:29) Bitcoin & Neutral Assets
(47:21) View on U.S. Equities
(50:57) Final Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance
This week, we discuss NVIDIA’s latest earnings, how shifting credit dynamics could reshape the next phase of the AI boom, what the Fed’s mixed signals really imply for markets, and why global FX moves are sending quiet warnings. We also dig into the surprising forces driving crypto’s recent washout and what they may signal about the road ahead. Enjoy!
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Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_
Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp
Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/19pmtdWgHFQaXqjjkBeuM89VtGWCLa9qo/view?usp=sharing
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Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal.
https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:11) NVDA Earnings & Debt-Fueled Capex
(09:46) Rising Real Rates & Fed Pivot
(12:05) Grayscale Ad
(12:45) Private Credit Warnings
(14:18) Fed in the Dark & Midterm Setup
(19:54) Trump, Bessent & the Fed
(22:20) Hawkish Balance Sheet, Dovish Rates
(27:12) Grayscale Ad
(28:00) Currency Markets & the Carry Trade
(36:48) Bitcoin Quant Corner
(48:22) Geopolitical Implications of Bitcoin and Stablecoins
(53:52) Political Reflections
(58:54) Final Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance
