This week, we discuss the Fed’s whiplash on December rate-cut expectations, why markets are being driven more by positioning and volatility than fundamentals, and how AI-led CapEx is masking weakness across the real economy. We also dig into the Beige Book’s warnings on employment and AI-driven layoffs, the political pressure building into 2025, and Mike Green’s viral case that the true cost of living is far higher than official statistics admit. Enjoy!
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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DZ5AtLuZZxGT5hWw3jq2V-r_9jBgruEE/view?usp=sharing
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Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal.
https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(02:49) Rate Cut Odd Whipsaw
(09:48) Grayscale Ad
(10:27) Market Structure & Positioning
(15:14) Debating the AI Race
(23:59) Gameplan for Next Year
(31:31) Grayscale Ad
(32:18) 2026 Cuts & New Fed-Treasury Vision
(38:34) Gold Miners & Trading Commodities
(42:18) Oil & Energy Policy
(46:22) Mike Green & the K-Shaped Economy
(55:17) Final Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance
In this episode, Aahan Menon of Prometheus Macro digs into why the economy feels strong on the surface but uneasy beneath it, the AI investment boom propping up profits, and why the bond market can’t find its footing. We also explore why traditional recession playbooks are breaking down, the transmission of liquidity and monetary into markets, and what actually matters if you’re trying to find an edge in trading macro. Enjoy!
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Follow Aahan: https://x.com/AahanPrometheus
Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
__
Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal.
https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:38) The Real State of the Economy
(06:08) Consumption & Real vs Nominal Growth
(16:51) Grayscale Ad
(17:29) AI CapEx's Economic Impact
(26:59) Grayscale Ad
(27:47) Fiscal & Monetary Policy Transmission
(34:21) Understanding & Trading Liquidity
(40:25) Finding Edge in Macro Trading
(45:24) Turning Macro into Money
(52:30) Final Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance
