Forum
OPRR
Finance
Specials
On-chain Eco
Entry
Podcasts
Activities
In this episode, Senior Research Fellow at Mercatus Center and host of Macro Musings David Beckworth breaks down the rising risks of fiscal dominance—when the Fed prioritizes government solvency over price stability. He explains the historical context of fiscal dominance, the warning signs we’re seeing today, and why current debt levels, persistent deficits, and political gridlock are pushing us closer to stage three. Beckworth also dives into the mechanics of stablecoins, the Treasury’s issuance strategy, and potential reforms to the Fed’s operating system, including balance sheet management and NGDP targeting. He warns that without serious structural change, the Fed’s independence and credibility may be at risk. Enjoy!
__
Follow David: https://x.com/DavidBeckworth
Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
__
Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for $100 OFF
https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london
__
This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.
Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):
http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix
Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):
vaneck.com/SMHXFelix
Echo Protocol is the first Bitcoin liquid re-staking and yield layer on MoveVM. As the second-largest protocol on Aptos by TVL, Echo secures nearly half of the network’s bridged assets with ~$270M in aBTC minted. https://www.echo-protocol.xyz/
—
Timestamps:
(01:27) Major Regime Shift
(05:00) Last Era of Fiscal Dominance
(08:13) Ads (VanEck, Aptos)
(09:35) Fiscal Dominance Catalysts
(12:29) Phases of Fiscal Dominance
(18:37) Can Stablecoins Help?
(23:51) Active Treasury Issuance
(26:44) Ads (VanEck, Aptos)
(28:06) Is the Endgame YCC?
(31:29) Crossing the Rubicon
(33:23) Fed Monetary Policy Framework
(38:18) The Ideal Fed Reaction Function
(45:18) Rethinking Forward Guidance
(47:52) Balance Sheet Goals
(52:13) Realistic to Offload Duration?
(54:38) Should We Remove IORB?
(01:13) Final Thoughts
__
Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance
This week, Le Shrub joins the show to lay out his barbell portfolio strategy and "GAG" (Golden Age of Grift) thesis. We discuss fiscal dominance, bond market dysfunction, yield curve control, and why crypto—especially ETH—is gaining traction as the new high-yield frontier. We also cover risk scenarios like Japan yield shocks, Powell’s potential firing, rising inflation swaps, and how private equity and crypto are being funneled into 401(k)s to keep the system afloat. Enjoy!
—
Follow Le Shrub: https://x.com/agnostoxxx
Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_
Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp
Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
—
Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for $100 OFF
https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london
__
Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1QhG4HJA0tyvEtFncy_voFFm5LEOKEcib/view?usp=sharing
—
This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.
Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):
http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix
Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):
vaneck.com/SMHXFelix
Echo Protocol is the first Bitcoin liquid re-staking and yield layer on MoveVM. As the second-largest protocol on Aptos by TVL, Echo secures nearly half of the network’s bridged assets with ~$270M in aBTC minted. https://www.echo-protocol.xyz/
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(02:54) Shrub Portfolio
(07:47) Macro Setup
(12:36) Ads (VanEck, Aptos)
(13:56) Yields Too High?
(16:33) Bessent & QRA
(18:53) “Fire Powell” Trial Balloon
(20:53) Trading The Ponzi
(24:48) Japan & Inflation
(26:41) Who’s Gonna Buy The Bonds?
(33:24) Are Recessions Over?
(34:18) Ads (VanEck, Apotos)
(35:42) Are Recessions Over?
(36:34) Weimar Endgame
(38:58) Coldplay Affair
(40:41) Volatility, Hedging & Hedge Funds
(47:09) Inflation vs Growth
(49:52) Trump Risk & Grift
(54:13) “Democratizing” Finance
(56:36) Crypto Treasury Companies
(01:04:07) Why Do You Own Things?
(01:05:05) Final Thoughts
—
Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance
