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12 Billion Shares Unlocked, Can SpaceX's First Quarterly Report Save the Stock Price?

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SpaceX will release its first quarterly earnings report after going public on August 4, with the market focusing on the progress of its three main businesses: AI, Starlink, and Starship.

Original Title: "After IPO, 4-Week Decline and Unlocking of 1.2 Billion Shares, Can SpaceX's First Quarterly Report Save the Stock Price?"
Original Author: Zhang Yaqi, Wall Street View

SpaceX is about to release its first quarterly earnings report after going public, marking a crucial test for the market.

SpaceX will announce its second-quarter performance after the U.S. market closes on August 4 (Wednesday). As of Monday's opening, its stock price has been falling for four consecutive weeks, down about 20% from the $135 IPO price, and a cumulative 46% drop from the all-time high closing price of $201.80 on June 16.

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Colin Canfield pointed out in a preview report that "extreme deviations in profit expectations for the initial quarter may exist," implying that the outside world has little grasp of the performance trend.

Meanwhile, the unlocking pressure looms over the stock price. Approximately 1.12 billion shares will be allowed to start trading on August 6, with another approximately 3.19 billion shares unlocking in the following week. This means that the potential selling pressure from early investors cannot be ignored, and the market's focus will be on the price reaction on Thursday and Friday—a strong earnings report may be the only catalyst to break the continuous decline.

The Huge Revenue Potential of the AI Business, but Highest Uncertainty

SpaceX's earnings report discloses three major business segments: Space, Connectivity, and Artificial Intelligence (AI). Among them, the AI segment is the biggest suspense of this quarter.

The core asset of the AI business is xAI—SpaceX's merger with it was completed in February this year. xAI currently operates two onshore data centers: Colossus I in Tennessee and Colossus II in Mississippi. In the first quarter, the AI business achieved $818 million in revenue, but recorded an operating loss of $2.5 billion during the same period, with capital expenditures as high as $7.7 billion.

Entering the second quarter, there have been significant variables on the revenue side. SpaceX has signed AI data center leasing agreements with Anthropic and Google, with the agreement with Anthropic amounting to as high as $1.25 billion per month, gradually scaling up between May and June; the Google agreement has not yet commenced. This means that there is considerable elasticity in the actual revenue of the AI business this quarter, and the trend of profit margin is equally difficult to predict along with the pace of additional capital expenditures.

The most anticipated guidance for investors includes the company's outlook for the second half of this year and 2027 in the AI business, as well as the timeline for advancing the vision of deploying low-cost AI computing satellites into orbit using Starship.

Starlink: User Growth is Key Metric

The connectivity business Starlink is SpaceX's most robust profit engine. By the end of the first quarter, Starlink had 10.3 million subscription users, more than double the 5 million users from 12 months ago; the quarterly revenue reached $11.4 billion, with an operating profit of $4.4 billion.

In this quarter's financial report, user growth data will be the market's focus. Colin Canfield expects the company to disclose the average revenue per user (ARPU) metric and the backlog of contracts for enterprise and government businesses, which will help investors assess the commercialization depth and future growth potential of Starlink.

Space Business: Progress of Starship in Focus

The space segment carries SpaceX's core technological narrative. In the first quarter, this segment achieved $4.1 billion in revenue, with an operating loss of $657 million, and added $1.1 billion in new factory and equipment capital expenditures. In the second quarter, Falcon 9 completed approximately 36 launches, most of which served the internal Starlink constellation deployment, and such launches are not included in the space segment's revenue.

The progress of Starship is also highly anticipated. In July, Starship completed its 13th flight test, and investors will seek updates on the timing of the 14th test and the company's ongoing investment scale in this rocket—Starship is a key launch vehicle for future commercial payload launches and AI satellite deployments.

Performance Expectations and Market Outlook

Wall Street currently expects SpaceX's second-quarter total revenue to be around $6.9 billion, and earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) to be approximately $2.1 billion; the full-year revenue is expected to be $39 billion, with an EBITDA expectation of $17.3 billion. Colin Canfield is relatively optimistic about this quarter, expecting performance to exceed expectations and come with positive guidance.

However, the reliability of these forecasts is in question. As this is SpaceX's first quarterly report since going public, analysts have no historical data as a benchmark, and there is a significant possibility of actual numbers deviating substantially.

The stock price trend is also full of variables. The supply pressure from unlocked shares, market concerns about Elon Musk's divided attention, and the controversy over the valuation itself — calculated at a current market value of approximately $1.4 trillion, corresponding to a 35x estimated revenue for 2026 — will all be key factors influencing the post-earnings market reaction. For investors, this weekend may be anything but calm.